The Wall Street Journal had a very disturbing story on Wednesday about the “Fast and Easy” loan program of Countrywide Financial Corporation, many of whose mortgages were bought up by Fannie Mae.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
GDP still growing (barely)
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 0.6% annual rate in the first quarter of 2008, the same tepid growth rate we saw in the fourth quarter of last year.
Peter Hooper on the economic outlook
The speaker at our UCSD Economics Roundtable this week was Peter Hooper, chief economist for Deutsche Bank Securities. Here is a brief summary of his thoughts about the U.S. economic outlook.
The case for 2-1/4
The Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting is scheduled for April 29/30, which the May fed funds futures contract currently anticipates will result in another 25-basis-point reduction in the target fed funds rate down to 2.0%. Here’s why I hope the Fed doesn’t do that.
Commodities and the Fed: answering the skeptics
Judging from some of the reactions across the blogosphere (not to mention any number of our own dear readers), maybe I should take another stab at clarifying why I see the hand of the Federal Reserve in the most recent movements in oil and commodity prices.
Recession indicators
A couple of minor remarks on recession indicators.
Why new oil price highs?
West Texas Intermediate closed today above $115/barrel. Does that reflect changes in the fundamentals of world supply and demand? My answer is no.
Commodity arbitrage
Scott Irwin is the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois. He has been doing some fascinating research on the relation between spot and futures prices in agricultural markets that may shed some light on the role of speculation in recent commodity price movements. We are delighted that Scott agreed to share some of the results of his research with Econbrowser readers.
Food prices
How should a well-fed American react when some of the world’s poorest citizens in Haiti and Bangladesh riot over the rising price of food?
Central bank independence
Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich (hat tip: Economist’s View) offered some thoughts Friday about democracy and the Federal Reserve. Both his insights and his errors are instructive.