The Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting is scheduled for April 29/30, which the May fed funds futures contract currently anticipates will result in another 25-basis-point reduction in the target fed funds rate down to 2.0%. Here’s why I hope the Fed doesn’t do that.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Commodities and the Fed: answering the skeptics
Judging from some of the reactions across the blogosphere (not to mention any number of our own dear readers), maybe I should take another stab at clarifying why I see the hand of the Federal Reserve in the most recent movements in oil and commodity prices.
Recession indicators
A couple of minor remarks on recession indicators.
Why new oil price highs?
West Texas Intermediate closed today above $115/barrel. Does that reflect changes in the fundamentals of world supply and demand? My answer is no.
Commodity arbitrage
Scott Irwin is the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois. He has been doing some fascinating research on the relation between spot and futures prices in agricultural markets that may shed some light on the role of speculation in recent commodity price movements. We are delighted that Scott agreed to share some of the results of his research with Econbrowser readers.
Food prices
How should a well-fed American react when some of the world’s poorest citizens in Haiti and Bangladesh riot over the rising price of food?
Central bank independence
Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich (hat tip: Economist’s View) offered some thoughts Friday about democracy and the Federal Reserve. Both his insights and his errors are instructive.
Some more unwelcome developments
New bankruptcies as consumer sentiment deteriorates.
Visualizing foreclosures
Via Mortgage News Clips, an interesting interactive map of Denver foreclosures in USA Today.
Oil and the Great Moderation
Another interesting paper presented at the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Symposium that I attended last week was by
Anton Nakov of the Bank of Spain and Andrea Pescatori of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland on the role that changes in energy markets may have played in the reduction in GDP and inflation volatility observed since 1984.