Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Luisa Carpinelli, Filippo Natoli, Kevin Pallara, Luca Rossi, Sergio Santoro and Massimiliano Sfregola; Bank of Italy, DG-Economics, Statistics and Research, Advanced Economies and Macroeconomic Policies Division. The views presented in this column represent those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy or the ESCB.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Handbook of Financial Integration
Monthly GDP for April, and Other Indicators
Monthly GDP recovers.
Nowcasts Down
Atlanta and NY Fed lower growth rates for Q2
Instantaneous Inflation Rates for April
All measures decelerate.
Business Cycle Indicators as of End-May
Consumption, personal income ex-transfers, and (for March) manufacturing and trade industry sales.
“Trump Guilty on All Counts”
From NYT and PredictIt.
Guest Contribution: “EU Carbon Border Adjustment Could Facilitate a Global Climate Solution”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate. He would like to thank Kim Clausing, Rob Stavins, and Catherine Wolfram for useful comments.
Recession Watch: In Which I Agree with ZeroHedge
From Zerohedge
Given the long lag between recessionary indicators and economic recession, it is unsurprising economists gave up anticipating a recession. However, while the recession has not happened yet, it does not mean that it still can’t. We should pay special attention to data historically correlated to economic growth.
Immigration, Recovery and Inflation
In the Fed’s recent examination of the differential recovery in the US as compared to the Euro area, UK and Canada, I was surprised that immigration did not make a bigger appearance, given my views.