From X, on Thursday:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Cliff Winston: “The Microeconomics of Donald Trump”
Layoffs and Mass Layoffs in Wisconsin
A few days ago, Eric Hovde spoke about impending mass layoffs. I couldn’t figure out what he was talking about; here’re some indicators for Wisconsin, and for the nation.
Wesley Clair Mitchell and Business Cycle Measurement
From NBER President & CEO James Poterba, on 8/5/2024:
“Economists for Trump”
In 2020, list here.
“Non-Essential Business Cycles” and Implications for the Imminent Recession Call
From a paper by Michele Andreolli, Natalie S. Rickard, and Paolo Surico (presented at NBER Summer Institute Monetary Economics sessions):
Hovde on Impending Mass Layoffs, Disinflation vs. Deflation, and “Illegals” (His Word, Not Mine)
See on WisconsinEye.
Food at Home CPI Component: Unchanged Relative to January 2024
Prices are up relative to January 2021, but not relative to January 2024:
Wisconsin Employment in July: Cooling
Preliminary NFP count is down 6.5K (on 3 million), unemployment rate up 0.1 ppts.
The Partisan Split in August Sentiment
Michigan 67.8 vs 66.7. Big jump in expectations 72.1 vs. 68.5 (as opposed to current situation).