Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Joseph E. Gagnon of the Peterson Institute of International Economics.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “Labor Shares and Corporate Savings”
In a Guest Contribution today, Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman (University of Chicago) discuss their recent research on “Declining Labor Shares and the Global Rise of Corporate Savings.”
Thirty Years Ago Today
A personal reflection on the hazards of nationalist approaches to economic policy discourse
Contractionary Fiscal Contraction Is Even More Contractionary
Once one takes into account spillover effects, which are likely to be large in the Eurozone
Austerity, Forced and Unforced
The GIIPS countries on the periphery of Europe are undertaking fiscal retrenchment that is largely self-defeating, because they have little choice given the structure of the eurozone’s governance, and Germany’s policy position. The United States, in contrast, is undertaking reducing government spending not because it has to, but because of an ideology that sees austerity as a convenient means of bludgeoning the opponents of a reasoned fiscal policy.
Contractionary Fiscal Contraction, Quantified: European Edition
From Deutsche Bank, “Fighting the Clock,” Fixed Income (May 2012) [not online], some estimates of changes in structural balances, multipliers, and output impacts:
The Wisconsin Macro Outlook
The Spring Wisconsin Economic Outlook has not yet been released (last year, I believe it was released in early/mid May), so I thought I’d take a look at what recent private sector forecasts indicated. Here is one graph of relative GDP trends from Chase’s State of the Wisconsin Economy, dated March 31.
The Euro Zone Crisis: Political and Economic Perspectives
Back in late April, I participated in panel “Europe at the Crossroads: The Euro Crisis and the Future of European Integration” (video). There’re two graphs from my presentation I’d like to highlight, as they remain relevant even as the eurozone lurches into de facto recession [0].
Some Thoughts on the Employment Release
The employment release for May has raised concern, and rightly so, amongst policymakers. Figure 1 shows that nonfarm payroll employment growth has tailed off to 0.6% m/m, and 0.9% on a three month basis (both annualized, in log differences). Other labor indicators from the household survey are slightly more positive.
The Recall in Wisconsin: Summary Statistics
TPM average of polls for Wisconsin governor recall, Barrett vs. Walker: 48.5 to 49.7.