Professor Mulligan asserts that the payroll tax cut will have little effect on output, even in sticky price Keynesian, and New Keynesian, models. He writes:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Trade and Credit, Again
From Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis, by Davin Chor and Kalina Manova:
The Correlation between Money Base Growth and Inflation
I’ve been reading through undergraduate textbooks, trying to figure out where the idea that money base expansion must necessarily manifest itself in higher inflation. In Stephen Williamson‘s macro textbook, he argues that fears of inflation are motivated by the view that eventually, money base expansion will feed into money expansion (box on pp. 432), despite the fact that there is no obvious contemporaneous correlation between the two variables.
The Hill: “Senate rejects million-dollar tax-cut compromise in Saturday session”
Or more clearly, all Senate Republicans plus one four Democrats reject a tax cut for incomes below one million dollars. From The Hill:
Republicans had held firm in recent weeks that the tax cuts — designed to benefit the wealthiest Americans — should be permanently extended as a whole. Democrats had argued that only the cuts for the middle class should be extended, also blasting Republicans for failing to propose any spending cuts or revenue increases to pay for all of the cuts.
CEA Assessment of the the Impact of Letting UI Extensions Expire
From the CEA’s report “The Economic Impact of Recent Temporary Unemployment Insurance Extensions” released earlier today.
Chicken**** Passes House
(That’s not my phrase, it’s Rep. Boehner’s). Or, tax cut extension for income less than $250,000 passes. From The Hill:
House passes middle-class tax bill with three Republicans supporting
By Vicki Needham – 12/02/10 04:00 PM ET
The House passed by a vote of 234-188 a measure that permanently extends expiring middle-class tax cuts and provides a patch for the alternative minimum tax.
BCA, UI and EGTRRA/JGTRRA
Four Acronyms in a Very Depressing Play
Truly we are in a strange world where legislative extension of unemployment insurance payments, which is highly effective at maintaining aggregate demand, is stalled, while giving tax cuts to households with income in excess of $250K (a.k.a. the Todd Henderson households) moves forward despite having very little impact on employment and aggregate demand. In other words, on benefit-cost grounds we would want to do exactly the reverse. Given the sheer incoherence of some of the arguments being propounded, it might be useful to recap some findings.
And This Is Going to Lead to High Inflation?
Core at Zero
At least, month-on-month. Three month annualized inflation — either PCE or CPI — both under 0.5%:
Representative Ryan Requests
And Barry Eichengreen anticipates with an answer