Chairman Bernanke says it all
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Wisconsin Employment: Still Lagging despite Upward Revisions
Earlier this week, the BLS released new estimates of state employment, based upon Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data through September 2012. The figures for Wisconsin have been substantially revised upward. As indicated in previous posts [1] [2] , census data had indicated substantially higher nonfarm payroll employment than that derived from surveys.
Heritage on Seasonal Adjustment
Is February employment growth overstated due to statistical problems?
Iraq Metrics, Ten Years After
We should not forget what costs we incurred in search of weapons of mass destruction.
“Building U.S. Competitiveness”
The Economic Report of the President, 2013, released last Friday, devotes some attention to global rebalancing, a topic that I’ve addressed on a number of occasions. [1] [2]; and this paper. Exchange rate movements are critical, but so too are productivity and wage movements.
The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance: Shrinking Rapidly
The CBO has just released estimates of the cyclically adjusted budget balance (or, specifically, the budget balance without automatic stabilizers). The cyclically adjusted budget balance is a better measure of the fiscal stance. The evolution of this series is interesting.
Stevenson and Wolfers: “Is Paul Ryan an Inflation Nutter?”
Additional evidence addressing the question asked by Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers.
Assessing the Economics of the Ryan Plan
The new House budget proposal has just been released. [0] In the section discussing economic effects, I read the following:
Revisions and Conditioning, Again
An interesting new working paper, “Quarterly GDP Revisions in G-20 Countries,” by Manik Shrestha and Marco Marini, documents the fact that at the end of 2008, statistics understated the true extent of U.S. GDP decline.
ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan: U.S. recession began around the middle of last year
I’m dubious, but I will not “pull a Lazear”. Or a Don Luskin for that matter.