From Reuters:
The country’s gross domestic product fell 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday, sharper than a 0.1 percent decline forecast by analysts.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Macroeconomic Task Ahead
Guest Contribution: “Debt Ceilings, Bombs, Cliffs and the Trillion Dollar Coin”
Today, we’re very fortunate to have as a guest contributor Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. His weblog can be found here.
Great Moments in Policy Analysis: Heritage on the Debt Ceiling
From the Heritage Foundation, today:
Very simply, reaching the debt limit means spending is limited by revenue arriving at the Treasury and is guided by prioritization among the government’s obligations. How the government would decide to meet these obligations under the circumstances is a matter of some conjecture. Certainly, vast inflows of federal tax receipts—inflows that far exceed amounts needed to pay monthly interest costs on debt—would continue. Thus, the government would never be forced to default on its debt because of a lack of income. [emphasis added – MDC]
How to Induce Explosive Debt Dynamics
The debt ceiling and implications of:
”We Republicans need to be willing to tolerate a temporary, partial government shutdown.”
and more recently
Guest Contribution: “Rewriting UK GDP history the chain-linked way”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution by Sam Williamson, Research Professor at University of Illinois, Chicago, and President of Measuring Worth.
Guest Contribution: “The Myth of ‘Jobless Recoveries'”
(a.k.a. Okun’s Law is Alive and Well)
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Laurence Ball (Johns Hopkins University), Daniel Leigh (IMF) and Prakash Loungani (IMF) .
Think Tanks in the Economics Profession (II)
Updating last year’s post, indicators via representation at the (now ongoing) Allied Social Sciences Association meetings.
The Economy’s Trajectory in 2013
The agreement arrived at on New Year’s day implies that output at the end of 2013 will be between 0.6 to 1.0 percentage points higher than it otherwise would be under what was until New Year’s, current law, according to CBO’s preferred multipliers. The uncertainty arises in part from the unresolved nature of the sequester deal.
The Year in Review II: Yet More Fantastical Pseudo Economics
Time to emulate the media’s “year in review” pieces, with my own take on the most outrageous, nonsensical assertions presented in the guise of analysis. Here are my ten most hilariously deluded excursions into the fantasy world from my postings to Econbrowser. The inspirations range from (once again) the Heritage Foundation’s analyses (where have you gone, Bill Beach!) to the ongoing search for hyperinflation/crowding out.