Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Prospects for Growth And Rebalancing

From an article in the newest issue of GlobalAsia:

Only a few months ago, policymakers around the world were confronted with a series of challenges that, while substantial, seemed relatively well defined. International organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development highlighted the challenges of a two-speed recovery: emerging markets racing ahead, advanced economies plodding along. Global financial imbalances, particularly in current accounts, were a worry, but there were promising signs that growth and rebalancing in the United States and China would prove durable.

The prospects for a sustained global recovery now seem much less certain. …

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Some Policy Implications of the Interdependence of Cyclical and Structural Unemployment

I have decided to forego discussion of the potentially heavy burdens faced by households with incomes in excess of $250,000 should the tax cuts not be extended for income in excess of $250K (see the poignant story here), and focus on the challenges of the unemployed, and what challenges persistent unemployment in turn poses for macroeconomic policy. (Side note: our assessment of the plight of the +$250K income households should be tempered by the knowledge that even those households with income in excess of $250K will see a tax cut under the President’s proposal, since household income below the $250K threshold would be taxed at the current lower marginal rate [0])

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