Most of the discussion has focused on the domestic repercussions of going off the fiscal cliff (or as my former colleague Chad Stone calls it, the “fiscal slope”). I think it important to remember that, as the single largest economy, policy in the US has profound implications for economic developments overseas. This is particularly true with the eurozone still in a fragile state, and China growing (relatively) slowly.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Choice: Math vs. Anti-Math in Fiscal Policy
Over a hundred and fifty years ago, the “Know Nothing Movement” rose to prominence in American politics. The “Know Nothings” were thusly known not because they were ignorant, but because they denied being adherents of a xenophobic, nativist party. But I think this time around, it is appropriate to characterize one group as being a true “Know Nothing” party in the sense that they reject the gifts of the Enlightenment.
The October Employment Situation: Continued Improvement
Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the improvement in nonfarm payroll and private nonfarm payroll employment, respectively. Figure 3 highlights the fact that total civilian employment and labor force both increased in October. Interestingly, civilian employment growth in October continues that reported for September, the veracity of which some observers had questioned.
Bringing the Bubble to the Senate
Or, “Who will rid me of this troublesome study?”
The Employment and GDP Relationship
The latest GDP release gives me the opportunity to re-evaluate whether job creation is less than what would be expected, given the growth in real GDP. At first glance, it seems obvious that growth in employment is less than expected. A simple OLS regression of log private employment on log real GDP over the 1987Q1-2012Q3, which might be implied by a particular form of Okun’s Law.
Romney/Ryan on FEMA and NOAA
With an update (10/31) “Obama cuts FEMA funding by 3 percent. Romney-Ryan cuts it by 40 percent. Or more. Or less.”.
From National Journal, Governor Romney on FEMA:
Romney Assesses the Motor Vehicle Sector
With an update (in response to comments alleging media bias) from the leftist publication, Wall Street Journal.
In a speech Thursday, Governor Romney stated:
Why Governor Romney’s Threat on the Chinese Currency Matters
Maybe. Governor Romney has stated that he will declare China a currency manipulator on Day One, should he be elected President. In contrast to his other policy positions – from tax rates on the upper incomes, defense spending, coverage of pre-existing health conditions, the Blunt Amendment, Afghanistan timetable, first strike on Iran – he has exhibited remarkable (and pretty unique) constancy in his desire to call China a currency manipulator. In fact, one can find news reports from 2007 onward attesting to this long-standing stance [1], [2], [3]; so if there is any promise we should believe he will follow through on, it’s this one. And from Believe In America: Mitt Romney’s Plan for Jobs and Economic Growth (under “Day One”), it is:
Guest Contribution: How “Different” is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis?
By David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan
Today, we’re fortunate to have David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Clinical Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Houston, as Guest Contributors
Enter the Asterisk
The magic asterisk, that is (With apologies to Bruce Lee [0] and David Stockman). How the circle can be squared, in the Romney tax plan: assume a massive supply side response! [1]