The recession in the UK is even worse than first reported.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Dispatches XXII: Wisconsin and US Employment Growth Compared
Updated 5/27 — added Figure 2 showing Wisconsin’s poor performance vis a vis US as measured by coincident indices.
Governor Walker has been touting on numerous (!) radio and television ads employment gains using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) based figures [0], and (apparently) adding on reported changes in employment, as recorded by BLS. I wanted to highlight exactly how lackluster the record looks even with Governor Walker’s preferred numbers.
State Dependence and Fiscal Multipliers
Or, are there nonlinearities in the real (macro) world?
BLS: Wisconsin Private and Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment Decline in April
Official figures indicate employment declines in April, according to the BLS. Private payrolls are 4700 below January 2011 Levels
Ignorance Is Strength: House of Representatives Edition
The War on Data Collection Continues!
From the National Association for Business Economics (NABE):
[t]he U.S. House of Representatives was considering an
appropriations bill for Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies (H.R. 5326) that would drastically reduce funding for the Census Bureau and make participation in the American Community Survey voluntary.
Governor Walker’s Revised Employment Data in Context
(Updated at 5/17 12 noon Pacific: Wisconsin DWD reports April Loss of 5.9K NFP Jobs (6.2K Private); March NFP numbers revised up 7.3K, private payroll numbers revised up 0.7K. Total civilian employment rises by 6.8K according to household survey. Complete information at bottom of post).
Today, the Wisconsin DWD took the unusual — one might say unprecedented [1] [2] — step of announcing their estimates of what they call “actual job numbers” (see press release here). These are based on the unemployment insurance covered employment. From the press release:
The housing market and the case for higher inflation targets
From a VoxEU column today, by me and Joshua Aizenman:
Might more inflation be good for the US and Europe? This column looks at the housing market in the US and argues that, with houses dropping in price, buyers are playing a waiting game. And as buyers keep delaying, the price drops further. Given the importance of property in many economies, the knock-on effects are severe. Yet one way to break this vicious cycle is with inflation.
Gasoline Prices Implied by Futures
Downward, and downwardly revised.
Dispatches (XXI): Governor Walker only 244,100 Short of 250,000 New Private Sector Jobs by 2015!
From Milwaukee Journal Sentinel All Politics Blog:
Gov. Scott Walker recommitted Saturday to his pledge to create 250,000 private-sector jobs by 2015, a promise all the more difficult to achieve since he first made it because of anemic job growth during his tenure.
Dispatches (XX): “Divide and Conquer”
From Milwaukee Sentinel Journal:
A filmmaker released a video Thursday that shows Gov. Scott Walker saying he would use “divide and conquer” as a strategy against unions.