Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Heritage Breaks Internet Silence on Its Ryan Plan Simulations (w/o a single number!)

Or, a “Forensic Analysis for the Heritage CDA results”

The Heritage Foundation Center for Data Analysis (CDA) simulation of the Ryan plan, on behalf of the House Committee, has come in for some criticism. Commentary has been provided by Paul Krugman, and perhaps most comprehensively by Macroeconomic Advisers. (My comments are here: [1] [2] [3]). Yesterday, the Heritage Foundation CDA’s director, William Beach, posted a rebuttal to Krugman’s critique. While Big Picture posted an excellent rejoinder,
I want to deal with one particular aspect of Mr. Beach’s open letter. Consider this excerpt.

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Implied Supply Side Elasticities from the Heritage CDA Simulations

Following up on yesterday’s post on the Heritage Foundation’s assessment of the Ryan plan, I thought it would be useful to see how the labor and capital supply elasticities that are implied in the simulations compare with the literature, for the benefit of my macroeconomics class. Unfortunately, I come up with some really odd numbers, so I must either be making a mistake somewhere, or the simulation is very odd. Update 4/10, 4:50pm Pacific: I added two graphs illustrating exactly how odd these numbers are.

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Gains and Losses from Trade with China

From the conclusion to a provocative paper by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, entitled The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States:

our study suggests that the rapid increase in U.S. imports of Chinese goods during the
past two decades has had a substantial impact on employment and household incomes, benefits
program enrollments, and transfer payments in local labor markets exposed to increased import
competition. These effects extend far outside the manufacturing sector, and they imply substantial
changes in worker and household welfare.

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