Recently, Speaker of the House John Boehner asserted: “…the federal government has added 200,000 new federal jobs since President Obama took office.” Other analysts have tried to find the source for this figure, but I thought of interest to see exactly how bad his math was.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Intermediate Macro Exercise: How to Construct a Maximally Contractionary Budget Deficit Reduction
Consider an economy called Käseland, with gross output equal to approximately $475 billion, and unemployment rate of 7.5%, so considerable underemployment of factors of production exists; consistent with this interpretation, the general nonfarm wage rate has been relatively constant, growing at only 1.2% on a 12 month basis through 2010, and the price level has risen by about 1.5% from the second half of 2009 to second half of 2010.
Suppose there is a budget deficit, that you wish to close. How do you maximize the negative impact on output?
The December Trade Release
The December trade figures were released today. The trade deficit widened a bit, largely in line with the Bloomberg consensus, but a little less than assumed by BEA statisticians. This outcome meant a likely revision upward to 2010Q4 GDP. From Lahart/WSJ RTE.
Dispatches
This caught my eye. From Chicago Tribune:
Walker says National Guard is prepared
MADISON, Wis. — Gov. Scott Walker says the Wisconsin National Guard is prepared to respond wherever is necessary in the wake of his announcement that he wants to take away nearly all collective bargaining rights from state employees.
Core, and More, Near Zero
David Leonhardt had an interesting post noting how low core inflation had been, in historical context. In fact, many measures of inflation are at very low levels, indeed close to zero.
An Alternative Look at the Employment Situation
Two Competing Views on America’s Economic Future
Or, Palin and Eichengreen on Infrastructure Investment
In a recent speech, Sarah Palin, stated that:
… “The federal government is spending too much, borrowing too much, growing and controlling too much,” she said.
Joe Lawler Does Economic Analysis, Again
I had thought that after these posts [1] [2] [3] [4], Mr. Lawler had foregone further attempts at macroeconomic analysis. Alas, no. In Obama’s Job Search, Mr. Lawler states:
The Financial Crisis: Foreseeable and Preventable
From the NY Times Room for Debate forum Was the Crisis Avoidable, Jeffry Frieden writes:
The Real Value of the Yuan and Inflation
A recent NYT article highlighted the fact that international competitiveness (as defined by macroeconomists) depends on not just the nominal exchange rate, but also relative price levels. From Inflation in China May Limit U.S. Trade Deficit by Keith Bradsher:
Inflation is starting to slow China’s mighty export machine, as buyers from Western multinational companies balk at higher prices and have cut back their planned spring shipments across the Pacific.