Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Casey Mulligan on the Stimulus: Stock-Flow Mismatch, Sectoral Stimulus Mismatch, and Construction Crowding Out

In today’s Economix post, Casey Mulligan argues that the greater than predicted unemployment numbers should not be ascribed to the negative effect of the stimulus, but rather to bigger than anticipated negative shocks.

We cannot blame the Obama administration for failing to predict June’s 9.5 percent unemployment rate. That result just shows the size of the shocks hitting the economy: Even the best forecasters can miss the unemployment rate by almost two percentage points, even when forecasting fewer than six months ahead.

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Pre-ARRA, How Badly Did Macroeconomic Forecasters Overpredict GDP and Employment in 2009Q1?

There’s been a lot of breast beating over the fact that the Administration underestimated the severity of the downturn. From this has come a lot of confused argument — sometimes not internally consistent — over whether this invalidates the usefulness of the stimulus package, whether the stimulus worsened the economic outlook, etc. I’ll dispense with the clearly economically illogical arguments and try to tease out what is the “surprise” element in the 2009Q1 figures, and from that infer how much worse the economy was relative to what private sector forecasters predicted, conditional upon the passage of the ARRA.

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Ed Lazear on the Stimulus Package

From the WSJ editorial page:

Only a small share of the spending will occur in 2009, even though Keynesians would argue that stimulus spending should be frontloaded to kick-start growth. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the largest share of the spending will occur in 2010, with the amount in 2011 being slightly larger than in 2009. Again, the timing exacerbates the problem: It will be tough to cut back on spending written into budgets as far out as 2011.

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Back to the Stimulus Debate: W, Timing, the States, and Baselines

A “W” Recession?

Martin Feldstein has recently raised the possibility that we might experience a relapse into recession (a beautiful symmetrical W), with the next dip in 2010. In my view, this means (1) we should have opted for a bigger and better composed stimulus package, and (2) the timing of expenditures in the stimulus package might not be as problematic as many commentators have indicated. From Bloomberg:

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New Papers on International Finance: Crises, Puzzles, and Exchange Rates

Summertime is conference season, especially for those of us who don’t live close to a major airport hub. The first conference I attended was the NBER’s International Seminar on Macroeconomics, co-organized by Lucrezia Reichlin and Ken West. The conference was broken up into several sections: Financial Crises, International Economic Puzzles, Exchange Rates and Financial Development. Lot’s of interesting papers, and plenty of stimulating discussion. I can’t do justice to the proceedings, but I can provide the summaries of the papers.

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