The Renminbi (RMB) is probably undervalued, according to some criteria. Would adjusting it fix the US-China trade deficit? Or the overall US trade deficit?
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Billions for production, not a cent for conservation…
Well, not quite. But I find it interesting to see how much revenue the government loses by giving tax breaks to certain groups in the energy arena.
The June 2006 Trade Figures
Persisting trends, for now
Could it be that we’re already in a recession? Lessons from the last episode
There’s a lot of talk about recession these days, despite the fairly rapid average growth of GDP in the past few quarters. Krugman (via DeLong) observes a slowdown is coming that might feel a lot like a recession. DeLong considers whether Fed policy has already raised rates to such a degree a recession is inevitable. Roubini bravely cites probabilities. My colleague James Hamilton provides a contrasting opinion, based upon his academic work with Chauvet [pdf].
The enigmatic Yuan
The Yuan has not been moving much. Or has it? And does it matter much for the U.S. current account deficit
Report of the National Research Council on “Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years”
What do the scientists (in peer reviewed journals) say about global warming?
A Dynamic Analysis of Permanent Extension of the President’s Tax Relief
The press account surrounding the Mid Session Review (MSR) (page 3-4) noted the preferred estimate of GNP response to the President’s tax proposals: real GNP might be 0.7 percent higher than steady state baseline. The Treasury’s Office of Tax Analysis has just released the underlying analysis.
The Gamble Fails: Doha talks collapse
The Bush Administration’s quid pro quo of early-on steel protectionism in exchange for fast track negotiating authority for the Doha Round seems like a bad bet (May 24) in retrospect.
A long term perspective on differential approaches to fiscal policy
Or, over the past quarter century, have Democrats and Republicans acted differently?
(Non) transparency of GWOT expenditures, and an update on Iraq metrics
While the events in Lebanon and Gaza have pushed Iraq off center stage, Iraq and Afghanistan remain the largest fiscal drains on the U.S. Treasury and the military’s ability to respond to other strategic challenges. In this light, GAO Comptroller David Walker’s testimony on Tuesday [pdf] is both illuminating and depressing. From the Summary: