As the dollar hits a new low against the euro [0], some thoughts on what arguments make sense, given our knowledge of the statistical properties of real exchange rates.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
What Explains Deviations from Interest Rate Parity in Emerging Markets?
Some people have the impression that financial capital zips to wherever the returns are highest. Maybe that’s the case. But I’m not sure.
Crony Capitalism Comes (Returns?) to America
Iraq rationales: WMDs, Fighting Terrorism, Democracy, Military Keynesianism
From FT yesterday:
Trade, Exchange Rates and Pass Through
Some thoughts on what to make of the trade and export/import price releases.
CBO on the Outlook, Post-Stimulus
The CBO released new forecasts [pdf] yesterday. No recession, but…
International Aspects of Tax Policy in the 2008 Economic Report of the President
The tax policy chapter of the ERP is quite interesting, in part because I have a sense of deja vu [1], [2] when reading the cross-country/international sections.
International Economics in the 2008 Economic Report of the President
Ignore the newspaper reports about the short term forecasts; that’s old news, since these White House forecasts were made in November (and hence, it’s not fair to compare these forecasts to current forecasts, as has been done in some journalistic accounts). And ignore the chapter on housing markets — there’s not going to be any discussion of how inadequate regulatory oversight (to put it mildly) might have contributed to this debacle. The interesting stuff is in the discussion — or lack of discussion — of certain international economics issues (no Renminbi!).
Economic Report of the President, 2008 [large pdf!]
Expenditure Switching or Expenditure Reduction Again: How Adjustment Is Occuring
The latest GDP release suggests trade balance adjustment is proceeding. Some of the adjustment is being driven by changes in the dollar’s value. But I think a lot seems to be coming from the reduction in consumption and income growth.
How to balance the Federal budget, Bush style, Redux
A year ago, I observed that the Bush Administration was projecting a balanced budget eventually, by assuming away expenditures. We’re in for a replay.
