Upside surprises. Will they continue?
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
What happens to the dollar when interest rates stop rising?
Further predictions of secular dollar weakness, from a portfolio balance perspective
The economic impact of a disruption to container trade
Congress acts — to cut funds for port security
April 2006 Trade Balance Figures
Where the ex. oil trade balance is going, and what trade prices are doing.
The dollar and interest rate expectations
What can one read from asset responses to “news”
Learning (or non-learning) from the Classical Age
Or, what if George W. Bush had lived in 480 BCE; would we all be speaking Persian?
Does a new economic team mean a new economic policy?
Henry Paulson has been nominated to the position of Secretary of Treasury. Will it matter?
The Euro, the Dollar and Globalization
Thinking about some big global macro issues
Gambling on Trade
In 2001, the Bush Administration set in motion the machinery to impose tariffs on steel imports. The purported reason was to secure fast track (trade negotiating) authority. How does that gamble look five years later?
Exchange rate pass through and dollar decline
Is there a direct relationship running from a change in the dollar’s value and import and export prices and thence to consumer prices?