Some people have argued that the occupation of Iraq could evolve into a West Germany type situation. CBO has assessed the costs of this eventuality.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The President Prognosticates (on the Economy)
From the LA Times:
Divining the Dollar
The dollar declines in response to the drop in the target Fed Funds rate. What next?
Four Observations on Import and Export Prices and the Dollar
Some delayed reflections on exchange rates, trade prices, and the messages from the August data.
Is Bush an Economic Conservative? Does He Analyze?
Greenspan says no, on both counts.
Saving Glut Redux
Bernanke recaps his interpretation of the explanation for global imbalances. Is it any more convincing than the first time?
Perspective on the Surge and US Losses
I thought it would behoove us to actually inspect the data and look at the trends (as opposed to listening to Administration officials) associated with operations in the Iraqi theater.
The Decoupling Scenario: Pre-Assessment
The U.S. economy appears to be slowing. Predictions of continued growth probably rely on assumptions the rest of the world continues to grow. How reasonable is this view?
Just how bad is the labor market?
Nonfarm payroll employment growth is 1.3% (12 month log difference). Civilian employment — adjusted to conform to the establishment payroll series — is 1.0%. These are the numbers for August 2007? Almost. Payroll employment growth was actually 1.2%. Those figures are for February 2001, the month immediately preceding the last NBER-defined recession.
Dueling Recession Probability Estimates
Macroeconomic Advisers says the probability of recession is less than 50%.