This is a tough question to answer. But I can provide an answer of a mechanical sort. Consider how big the Chinese economy is, compared against the US, the Euro area and Japan.
Category Archives: China
Chinese Exports: “no hope”
From Bloomberg two days ago:
…”There’s no hope for export demand to recover any time soon,” said Wang Qian, a Hong Kong-based economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “How fast imports recover depends on how soon the government’s stimulus package kicks in and creates real demand in major industries.”
Chinese Growth Plunges
From Bloomberg:
Jan. 22 — China’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in seven years as the global recession dragged down exports, increasing pressure for more government spending and lower interest rates to buoy growth.
Gross domestic product grew 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, after a 9 percent gain in the previous three months, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. The figure matched the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Incipient Chinese Yuan Depreciation in Context
Plenty of breathless commentary on how Chinese yuan depreciation against the dollar might trigger conflict. From Barrons:
Reality Check for China
By LESLIE P. NORTON
The currency’s decline could dampen foreign speculators’ enthusiasm
Last week, China’s currency, the renminbi, juddered to its biggest one-day decline against the greenback since Beijing began a managed float in 2005.
Says Win Thin, a currency economist at Brown Brothers Harriman: “The prospect of appreciation is off the table for now.” Morgan Stanley now expects China to depreciate its currency by 5% to 10% in the coming year. The current rate is 6.88 to the dollar.
China Acts
From Bloomberg:
China Announces 4 Trillion Yuan Economic Stimulus (Update2)
By Li Yanping and Chia-Peck Wong
Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) — China announced a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan to spur expansion in the world’s fourth-largest economy, helping sustain global growth as the U.S., Europe and Japan teeter on the brink of recession.
The funds, equivalent to almost a fifth of China’s $3.3 trillion gross domestic product last year, will be used by the end of 2010, the Beijing-based State Council said today on its Web site. China will adopt a “pro-active fiscal policy” and pursue a “moderately loose” monetary policy, it said.
Middle Kingdom Malaise? The Latest Chinese GDP Figures
Monday’s announcement that Chinese growth was decelerating was not surprising; that it decelerated to below the consensus of 9.7% growth to 9% (y/y) in 2008Q3 was a surprise. This was reflected in the headlines: “China growth rate slows sharply” (FT), “China less likely to buffer world crisis as its economy slows” (LA Times), “China’s economy feels chill from global crisis” (AP). For detailed numbers, see Haver.
Chinese Trade: An Update
I was surprised by this item from the BBC:
Chinese trade surplus at new high
Wednesday, 10 September 2008
China’s trade surplus hit a monthly record of $28.7bn (£16.28bn) in August as the gap with the US and Europe widened, despite weaker world demand.
A new dynamic for the Middle East
Maybe it’s time to try something new. And maybe it’s already starting.
Oil prices and economic fundamentals
Oil was selling for $123 a barrel on May 7, and that’s where it closed this week. Sounds like a calm and rational market, except for the fact that just last week it was going for $145.
IMF on the Global Macroeconomy, CBO on US-China Trade
The IMF released an update to it’s World Economic Outlook yesterday.
IMF Gloomy on Growth, Sees Rising Inflation Threat
- Global economic growth to slow significantly in second half of 2008.
- Rising energy, commodity prices have boosted inflationary pressure
- Need to adapt to shift in purchasing power from commodity users to producers