From the White House OMB on Saturday:
Category Archives: deficits
Budget Deficit Watch: Receipts Stabilize, Deficit Fails to Shrink
Reader CoRev, in commenting on this post, advises me to look at the actual data for October (instead of the CBO estimate) before declaring a trend deterioration in the budget balance. Well, the data are out.
Musings on the Trade Release and Consumption Theory
Last week’s trade release induced some wide-ranging thoughts, that spurred more questions than answers. In an experimental post, I’ll pose some questions that I hope readers will help me answer.
If this is what Federal receipts look like at full employment…
…then a balanced budget is far off.
The CBO released its November budget review yesterday. In this figure, the red dashed line (receipts) is slowing its ascent. Expenditures are falling, but to the extent that transfers rise in slowdowns, one knows the likely trajectory of the blue line.
Some Observations on the GDP Release
The BEA’s NIPA release had some surprises for many. Here are some aspects of the release that I find surprising.
Have Net Exports Ever Prevented the U.S. from Going into Recession?
First, a look at what the blogosphere is thinking about recession.
The Debt-to-GDP Outlook in Plausible Scenarios
In updating a graph of the projected debt-to-GDP ratio, I was only slightly surprised to see that the out-years (still) look pretty grim.
So Much for that Balanced Budget…
From Bloomberg, an anodyne to happy talk:
Perspective on Selective Fiscal Restraint and the Bush Administration
As the President and the Congress head to a showdown over SCHIP, it might be useful to see how, over the 2000-2005 period, the Federal government’s fiscal exposure evolved.
Saving Glut Redux
Bernanke recaps his interpretation of the explanation for global imbalances. Is it any more convincing than the first time?