I’ve maintained that rising oil prices put a significant burden on the U.S. economy in recent months. How much will falling oil prices help to alleviate those concerns?
Category Archives: energy
Drilling Offshore to Affect World Oil Prices… and Other Tales from the Iraq-Pakistan Border [0]
Various individuals have argued for drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) as a means to affect the price of oil. This is true despite this recent assessment by the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration, the Federal Government’s nonpartisan analytical group on energy issues. From Annual Energy Outlook related analyses (June 2007):
Core inflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that its primary consumer price index CPI-U rose 5.6% over the last year. That’s the highest inflation rate in 17 years, the newspapers all call to our attention. Just how concerned should we be about these numbers?
Americans making changes
American energy consumption is dropping. But will falling gasoline prices reverse that trend?
Current Account Adjustment Redux? What’s Different this Time Around
Oil and the dollar
Although movements in the value of the dollar are one factor contributing to recent changes in the dollar price of oil, I do not believe they are the most important factor. Here I review some of the evidence that persuades me of this.
Oil prices, autos, and the U.S. economy
It’s instructive to compare what’s currently happening to the auto sector and the U.S. economy with what we saw in the wake of the 1990 oil shock.
Oil prices and demand
More evidence of significant changes in the behavior of American consumers.
Oil prices and economic fundamentals
Oil was selling for $123 a barrel on May 7, and that’s where it closed this week. Sounds like a calm and rational market, except for the fact that just last week it was going for $145.
Why a lot of people think the CPI is not representative of their experience … and are right. At least partly.
Government statistics, particularly the CPI, have been in the news (e.g., [0]). Following up on my previous posts [1], [2], I want to take a stab at the question posed in the title.
This post focuses on issue separate from the mathematics of the index formulation, and has to do with what the typical weights at any given instant in time should pertain to. Should one use the expenditure weights that pertain to all the households aggregated in the economy? Or should one use the expenditure weights that pertain to the “typical” household? Kokoski (2003) [updated link] summarizes the distinction thus:
In the democratic index, the expenditure pattern of each household counts in equal measure in determining the population index; in essence, it is a case of “one household–one vote”. In the plutocratic case, the contribution of each household’s expenditure pattern is positively related to the total expenditure of that household relative to other households–in essence, “one dollar, one vote”.