Over the weekend, I was working on my long delayed manuscript on exchange rate modeling [0], and pondering how useful the conventional econometric techniques were for making predictions about the future value of the dollar.
Category Archives: exchange rates
ZIRP and the exchange rate…and other macro variables
Several months ago, I discussed the implications of a model of the exchange rate wherein Taylor rule fundamentals — the output [0], inflation and exchange rate gaps — were central (post). In that paper [pdf], I showed that Taylor rule fundamentals outperformed purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, and the monetary model of exchange rates in terms of in-sample fit, at least insofar as the dollar/euro exchange rate is concerned.
Measuring Import Prices: Implications for GDP Growth
A lot of what has happened to GDP growth over the past few quarters has, in a mechanical sense, depended upon developments in the external accounts. In this post, I examine whether mismeasurement of import prices might have induced mismeasurement of economic output. This idea was prompted by hearing a presentation of Nakamura and Steinsson a couple months ago. The abstract to “Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market”:
The global recession
IMF research economist
Prakash Loungani reports some statistics on the extent to which housing price declines are being seen worldwide.
Chinese Trade: An Update
I was surprised by this item from the BBC:
Chinese trade surplus at new high
Wednesday, 10 September 2008
China’s trade surplus hit a monthly record of $28.7bn (£16.28bn) in August as the gap with the US and Europe widened, despite weaker world demand.
Taylor Rules, Synchronized Recession and the Potential for Competitive Depreciation
In yesterday’s FT, “All in this together” assessed the possibility of a roughly synchronized downturn in the world’s major economies, with the United States, ironically enough, suffering the smallest hit. This brings up all sorts of interesting questions regarding exchange rates, if one believes that Taylor rules define monetary policy making to some degree, and that interest differentials affect exchange rates.
The Dollar and the Trade Deficit: How Does Productivity Fit In?
Why is the trade deficit, even taking out oil, so large when the dollar is so weak? Maybe some insights can be gleaned from productivity measures.
Economic consequences of falling oil prices
I’ve maintained that rising oil prices put a significant burden on the U.S. economy in recent months. How much will falling oil prices help to alleviate those concerns?
Oil and the dollar
Although movements in the value of the dollar are one factor contributing to recent changes in the dollar price of oil, I do not believe they are the most important factor. Here I review some of the evidence that persuades me of this.
Taylor rules, exchange rates, and the speculation about the dollar/euro rate
As Europe teeters on the edge of recession [0], and the United States remains mired in slow growth, expectations of what interest rates, and hence exchange rates, are shifting. Here’s a familiar depiction of where policy rates in the US and the euro area have been, and where they are predicted to go.