Category Archives: Uncategorized
Risk and Uncertainty, Market and Geopolitical
One way to visualize:
Mr. Johnson’s Modest* Conjecture for Saving Social Security
By happenstance, I was covering the challenges facing the Social Security and Medicare trust funds in my course on Wednesday. On that same day, Mr. Michael Johnson became the new Speaker of the House. In the past, he has provided an implied solution. From Newsweek:
“We are in a soft recession right now”
That is Stephen Moore, on June 27, 2022. He further notes: “Moore pointed to the GDP data on Monday, noting that the “first six months of the year have been negative for growth.” Here are the data around that time.
Claudia Goldin Awarded Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2023 to
Claudia Goldin
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
“for having advanced our understanding of women’s labour market outcomes”
She uncovered key drivers of gender differences in the labour market
Manufacturing on the Rise?
Here’s a picture of manufacturing activity: employment, hours worked, production, and new orders:
Policy Uncertainty over the Last Forty Years (Again)
It (still) seems a lot less uncertain since 2021M01, even without an ad hoc measure for the pandemic.
The Comprehensive Revisions: Little Change in Trajectory
Despite some views that GDP growth would be revised downward substantially (see discussion here), the recent trajectory of GDP and GDO was largely unchanged (even if the level over the period 2019 onward was). A lot of the revisions are summarized in this figure from Paweł Skrzypczyński:
Boloori & Saghafian, “Health and Economic Impacts of Lockdown Policies in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in the United States”
From the paper published in Service Science (2023), Alireza Boloori (University of Washington-Tacoma), and Soroush Saghafian (Harvard):
Ode on a Bruce Hall Link
This is a reprint of a post from 2020 entitled “The Worst Statistical Analysis I Have Seen This Year”, motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall‘s urging that we look at a Judith Curry link.