With the release of monthly GDP numbers, we have the following picture of some of the key indicators followed by NBER:
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The New Economic Team?
As of 11/29. Can you tell a difference?
Trump’s Trade War by the NIPA Numbers
National Income and Product Accounts numbers that is.
Wisconsin Economic Activity in October
As measured by the Philadelphia Fed coincident index.
Business Cycle Indicators as of November 25th
With October personal income and September manufacturing and trade sales reported today, we have this picture of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee‘s key indicators:
Covid-19 Weekly Fatalities and Excess Fatalities, as of November 25
Fatalities are rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).
Transition Teams – Economics
TPM has the list of transition team members. Below I reproduce those involving in economics.
Covid-19 Is Still Here: Implications for Employment
A reminder that it’s still possible to save tens of thousands of lives, with a return to competence and science in the waning days of the Trump administration (it goes without saying management would improve immeasurably in the Biden-Harris administration). Covid-19 hospitalizations are soaring. Seven day rolling average of deaths is at 970, showing a rapid ascent (it’s rising 19% per week). How long can employment continue to grow as the pandemic again surges?
Macroeconomic Management in the New Administration
today, as I was writing a short comment on the dollar’s prospects, I realized how much my views were informed by who was likely to be managing the macroeconomy. Just to make this point concrete, consider the economic team under Trump, as compared to under Obama as the latter confronted the Great Recession:
Covid-19 Weekly Fatalities and Excess Fatalities
Fatalities are likely rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).