Guest Contribution: The Macroeconomic Aftermath of the Earthquake/Tsunami in Japan

By Ilan Noy

 

Today, we’re fortunate to have Ilan Noy, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Hawai’i, as a Guest Contributor.

In the last 14 months, we have seen a spate of very large earthquakes which began with the unprecedented devastation caused by the earthquake in Haiti (1/10/10) — the most destructive natural disaster in modern history (relative to national population), continued with the unusually strong earthquake in Chile (2/27/10), to the most recent events generated by the earthquake in Sendai, Japan.

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2011 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge

If you’re not too busy forecasting oil prices and the stock market, try your hand at the 2011 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge. All you have to do is go to the Econbrowser group at ESPN, do some minor registering to create a free ESPN account if you haven’t used that site before, and make your picks for the winners of each game. Just make sure you complete your entry before Thursday, because the Econbrowser group only allows predictions before the tournament begins.

Dispatches (IX): 49,000-85,000 100,000 Rally In Madison

rally031211.jpg

Source: “Capitol Square overflows in largest Wisconsin labor solidarity demonstration yet,” The Isthmus (3/12/2011).

From USA Today:

By 3 p.m., tens of thousands of people crowded the Capitol Square. There is a big discrepancy in the crowd estimates compiled by Capitol Police and the Madison Police Department. Capitol Police estimated about 49,500 at 2 p.m. while Madison police said the crowd was about 85,000.

Latest Reuters estimate at up to 100,000.

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The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations

From the abstract to a new OECD Development Center working paper, by Marcus Kappler, Helmut Reisen, Moritz Schularick and Edouard Turkisch, the results of a large, cross-country study based upon a narrative approach to identifying appreciation episodes:

The study shows that currency appreciations can help to a certain extent in reducing global imbalances, and that it can go along with a shift from a mainly export-based model of growth towards a model with internal sources of growth. The cost in terms of growth would be very limited in the case of developed countries, but somewhat larger for developing countries.

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What will Saudi Arabia do?

One key question in determining the impact of instability in Libya and elsewhere on world oil markets is how much other countries can and will increase production to offset the shortfall. Here I review the critical role of Saudi Arabia in past disruptions and discuss the current situation.

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Dispatches (VIII): A Dog’s Life in Wisconsin

Or, don’t lose your dog in Wisconsin.

Just one of the odd bits of legislation winding through Madison, WI. From AB40:

SECTION 2704. 174.13 (2) of the statutes is amended to read:
174.13 (2) Any officer or pound which has custody of an unclaimed dog may
release the dog to the University of Wisconsin System, the University of
Wisconsin–Madison, the Medical College of Wisconsin, Inc., or to any other
educational institution of higher learning chartered under the laws of the state and
accredited to the University of Wisconsin System or University of
Wisconsin–Madison, upon requisition by the institution.

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The Challenges of Long Term Unemployment

The composition and implications of long term unemployment has been vigorously debated over the last year. The most recent informed commentary (skipping non-evidence based assessments [1]) includes Macroblog and SF Fed (earlier discussion here and here). Two conferences on the subject will be held at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, this Friday, and later at the end of April.

 

The magnitude of the phenomenon can be illustrated by inspecting mean unemployment duration, and number of unemployed over 27 weeks.

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The 25 best financial blogs

Time magazine has a list of the 25 best financial blogs, in which they included blog reviews written by other bloggers. Here’s what I said about my favorite blog:

If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I’ve followed him closely ever since, and I don’t know if he’s ever been wrong. My advice is, if you’ve come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you’d be wise to think it over again!