There’s been much discussion recently of whether the U.S. is experiencing a speculative bubble in house prices. Like previous historical bubble sightings, this one only seems to pop up in situations where the fundamentals on their own might justify significant price increases.
Ethanol clouds senators’ judgment
The urge to be seen as doing something about our energy problems is giving rise to
legislation that has the potential for more harm than good. The ethanol amendment approved by
the Senate yesterday is a case in point.
What is Saudi Arabia up to?
There is a chronic disconnect between what Saudi Arabia says it’s going to do and what
actually happens. So what’s really going on?
Worries about the yield curve
The yield curve has inverted eight times in the last half century, and in six of those
episodes, the U.S. ended up in recession. Some analysts are concerned that we may see a ninth
inversion before the end of this year.
Contango, backwardation, and all that good stuff
From some of the comments that have appeared both here and on some other blogs about my post
Oil futures and the
future of oil, it seems that some readers might appreciate a technical background
discussion of the way in which carrying costs and convenience yield influence the relation
between spot prices and futures prices. So if that describes you, by all means read on.
Time to repeal McCain-Feingold
Everybody seems to agree that this law at a minimum needs some major tweaking. I say it’s
time to throw it out altogether.
Oil futures and the future of oil
Commodity traders can have as hard a time as any of us trying to predict oil prices. But it’s interesting to see what the current price structure tells us about what traders believe brought about the current high prices and what may be in store for us next.
Predicting the Fed’s next move
Fed-watching can be something of an arcane sport. Will the subtle disappointments in the May employment and automobile sales figures persuade the Fed to hold back on another interest rate hike? And what would someone who’s really “in the know” infer from how high Alan Greenspan raised his right eyebrow at his last public appearance? Although playing that game can be fun, it’s actually quite easy for anybody to have a very well-informed belief about what we can expect next from the Federal Reserve.
Economic consequences of the high price of oil
All but one of the U.S. recessions since World War II have been preceded by a dramatic increase
in crude petroleum prices. Recent turbulence in energy markets has some analysts speculating that,
in the immortal words of Yogi Berra, it could be deja vu all over again. But this oil price shock
differs significantly from earlier episodes, leading me to believe that the economy will be able to
adapt to the new pricing environment without a major economic slowdown.
Disappointing job statistics?
The May employment figures
released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday sent mixed signals, revealing that U.S. job
creation slowed in May even as the unemployment rate edged slightly lower.