Just a quick observation today, elicited by a question: what has been a consistent source of growth since the recovery began?
Figure 1: Contribution of exports of goods and services to GDP growth (red bar) and all other components (blue bar), q/q SAAR, 2008Q1-2011Q3. Source: BEA, 2011Q3 advance release.
It’s export growth. The question is whether that will continue, as European growth gets marked down (and indeed the rest of the world as well, although not as markedly).
(Note that the 2011Q3 figure is an advance one; the contribution of the trade components is estimated on the basis of only two months out of the quarter.)