The Walker Administration’s Economic Outlook forecasts private employment in January 2015 will be 115 thousand below the goal set forth by Governor Walker in August 2013. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment will not reattain prior peak levels until 2015Q2.
Figure 1 depicts how far employment is lagging Walker’s pledge, even by the Administration’s forecast.
Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment (red), forecast from November 2014 Wisconsin Economic Outlook, quadratic match interpolation (green), trend consistent with Governor Walker’s August 2013 pledge to create 250,000 net new private sector jobs (gray). Source: BLS, Wisconin Economic Outlook (November 2014), Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (August 2013), and author’s calculations.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook also details the fact that nonfarm payroll employment growth will decelerate, not exceeding the 2008Q1 peak (the forecast is on a quarterly basis) until 2015Q2. Figure 2 compares US (and Minnesota) performance against Wisconsin’s; all employment series are normalized to 2008Q1.
Figure 2: Log US nonfarm payroll employment (black), Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (red), and forecast from November 2014 Wisconsin Economic Outlook, all normalized to 2008Q1=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: Source: BLS, Wisconin Economic Outlook (November 2014), NBER, and author’s calculations.
In contrast, United States NFP exceeded the 2008Q1 level by 2014Q2 (and Minnesota, Wisconsin’s next door neighbor, in 2013Q4). Interestingly, the Economic Outlook indicates sharp employment growth deceleration in 2015Q2.
For more, see Mike Ivey/Capital Times