Here’s the Philadelphia Fed’s revamped coincident index and the six month forecast for Kansas economic activity.
Figure 1: Log coincident index for US (blue), and Kansas (red), normalized to 2011M01=0. September 2015 observation is implied level from leading index. Source: Philadelphia Fed and author’s calculations.
Kansas also has a budget problem. The FY2016 gap is $667 million, with reserves largely drained.