With Philadelphia Fed leading indices out, I still don’t know if it constitutes a “disaster”, but it’s not particularly good.
While we have state GDP only up to 2015Q3 (2015Q4 figures to come out in mid-June), we do have personal income statistics through 2015Q4. The national and Kansas figures, deflated using the national personal consumption deflator, are shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Log personal income for US (blue), and for Kansas (red), both deflated using national personal consumption deflator, both normalized to 2011Q1. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, NBER and author’s calculations.
Astute observers will note Kansas real personal income was rising faster than national income before the Great Recession, and is rising more slowly, particularly since mid-2013. (GDP figures, and a counterfactual, are shown in this post.)
What are the prospects for Kansas. The Philadelphia Fed published leading indicators today. They indicate Kansas will continue to lag.
Figure 2: Log coincident index for US (blue), and for Kansas (red). Implied levels for October 2016 are based on leading indicators. Source: Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
For a graph depicting the trajectory of Kansas and her neighbors, see this post.