Monthly GDP Estimates and a Nowcast

Not spectacular.



Figure 1: GDP in billions Ch.2009$ SAAR, from BEA (3rd release) (blue bars), from Atlanta Fed GDPNow (4/27) (dark bold blue line), Macroeconomic Advisers (4/27) (red line), and e-forecasting (4/25) (green line), all on log scale. Atlanta Fed level calculated applying q/q SAAR growth rate to 2016Q4 level. Source: BEA 2016Q4 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, Macroeconomic Advisers, e-forecasting, and author’s calculations.

In contrast, Bloomberg consensus is for 1.1% q/q SAAR growth in 2017Q1.

Update, 4/28, 10:30AM Pacific: Here is a graph updated to include the advance BEA data on GDP. For additional discussion of the implications, see Jim’s post.



Figure 2: GDP in billions Ch.2009$ SAAR, from BEA (Q1 advance release) (blue bars), from Atlanta Fed GDPNow (4/27) (dark bold blue line), Macroeconomic Advisers (4/27) (red line), and e-forecasting (4/25) (green line), all on log scale. Atlanta Fed level calculated applying q/q SAAR growth rate to 2016Q4 level. Source: BEA 2017Q1 advance release, Atlanta Fed, Macroeconomic Advisers, e-forecasting, and author’s calculations.

3 thoughts on “Monthly GDP Estimates and a Nowcast”

  1. AS

    Professor Chinn,
    Am I reading correctly from the New York Fed and the Atlanta Fed “now casting” websites, that each group forecasts 1Q2017 SAAR at 2.7% and 0.2% respectively? If so, wow, quite a difference.

  2. Steven Kopits

    0.7% GDP. Bad.

    However, if you look at Q1 borrowing — which collapsed — this was not a surprise. I personally would not at all be surprised to see something like a weak, technical recession here in the next quarter or two, very small GDP declines to very small advances.

    Welcome to the Trump Recession.

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