Figure 1: Kansas real GDP in mn.Ch.2009$ SAAR (black) and log linear deterministic trend based on 2005-2010 (red), a log difference stationary fit* (green) all on log scale. Source: BEA and author’s calculations.
And here is the analogous picture for Missouri:
In other words, Kansas has fallen below its pre-Brownback trend; Missouri overperformed the 2005-2010 trend.
Like I’ve said before, America can be like Kansas with the Republican tax plan.
* An ADF test fails to reject difference stationary null for Kansas real GDP 2005-2010, but KPSS test fails to reject trend stationary null. I estimate both deterministic and stochastic trends as a consequence.