Of the 10yr-3mo spread.
For context, see what has happened each time an inversion of 10yr-3mo has occurred.
Figure 1: 10 year-3 month Treasury term spread (blue), 10 year-2 year Treasury term spread (red), March 2019 observations for 3/22 noon, all in %. Three month rate is secondary market. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, Reuters, NBER and author’s calculations.
For implications for emerging markets, see Mehl (2006).
Update, 6pm Pacific: Market expectations of a Trump recession jump 0.37 to 0.40.
Source: PredictIt, accessed 22 March 2019 9PM Eastern.