Business cycle indicators mixed, nowcasts overall sideways, manufacturing down.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink bold), all log normalized to 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (9/26 release), and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Real GDP growth, actual (dark blue bold), forecast of NY Fed Nowcast 9/27 (tan), Atlanta Fed GDPNow 9/27 (pink triangle), Macroeconomic Advisers 9/27 (teal square), Merrill Lynch 9/27 (blue +), q/q SAAR. Source: BEA, Macro Advisers, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed.
Figure 3: Manufacturing employment (blue), aggregate hours of production and nonsupervisory workers (teal) and production (red), in logs 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve via FRED, and author’s calculations.