Conditional on: “Once the confidence and the health of the American people is restored…”, as quote in The Hill today.
In some ways, this is not a falsifiable statement, since the target date of confidence restoration is unspecified. You can see some current forecasts in this post. Here is snapshot of the global PMI (from Ed Yardeni).
Here is a compendium of his previous predictions, including “Kansas is doing very well.”
Update 3/9, 2pm Central:
Here is the recording of Mr. Moore’s talk. Note he says “Once we get this thing contained…” I might be presumptuous in noting this, but I think Mr. Trump’s own health experts have stated that we are past containment and into mitigation…
He also may not be aware of COVID-19. The slowdown here at ground zero in Seattle is starkly visible. Traffic evaporated, restaurants emptied out, commuters stayed home. Plenty is still happening, but the changes and their impacts have to have an effect. My work requires a decent amount of travel. Nobody has asked me not to show up, not have I been barred from anything. Yet. No matter your opinions of the advisability of voluntary or mandatory restrictions, they will also have ripple effects.
Confidence? What is that? I thought we were worried about uncertainty, or maybe that was ten years ago. I have plenty of confidence that this is a mess.
The slowdown may not mimic wuhan, but it probably will mimic beijing. They have not shut down beijing, but it does not resemble the bustling metropolis from 6 months ago. Good thing pence was there to be thrown under the bus for covid19. Would hate to see trump bothered to deal with the biggest crisis of his presidency. But again, he is really not concerned about a bunch of elderly and preexisting folks dying. It solves his entitlement predicament. Although he probably is concerned about oil down 20% and dow futures now down another 1000 points.
“Stephen Moore: ‘Economy will roar back to life’ when coronavirus is contained”.
My Lord – this sounds like CoRev predicting a surge in soybean prices once China lifts its tariffs. As Keynes noted in the long-run we are all dead.
Oh wait Brian Riedl declared Keynes is dead as his contributions to macroeconomics. So the DEFICIT is going to economic doom in this long-run!
I do wish these right wingers would get their stories on the same page!
“Similarly, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow on Friday was not particularly alarmed by the recent dip in the economy. Kudlow said that he is confident that the U.S. would not need a substantial stimulus package to push past a possible economic downturn. However, he did mention that the Trump administration is considering a “targeted” economic aid approach for workers and businesses that have been effected by the consequences of the virus. ”
Kudlow has also been telling people to buy stocks now. I wonder if people who follow his advise can sue this village idiot and serial Trump cheerleader for whatever stock losses they incur from following this stupid advise. But no fiscal stimulus except for the targeted economic approach. Targeted to whom? Wilbur Ross and his ilk? MAGA hat wearing white people? Or maybe those who get some dirt on Joe Biden!
this argument and time frame is quite similar to our dearest corev, who argued that soybeans will recover once trump wins the trade war. perhaps moore and corev received their education together?
The news from North Italy and discussion of regional lockdowns certainly got my attention today. I guess I should do a mea culpa or waving of the white flag on COVID-19 being a relatively small event. Although I might still argue some of the quarantine actions have been extreme for something which we still can’t be certain has a 3% death rate. But I think at this point I can’t really argue it’s had a much bigger impact than I predicted. So consider this my “Yes, I was wrong” statement on the COVID-19 having relatively small health impact.
You know I hate saying I’m wrong, so mark it down on your calendars, ok??
Death rate is running 5% in Italy.
I think the China data gives a pretty good sense of the short term impact. Really bad.
I think the de facto NYC lockdown has already begun. Might soon be enforced by police a la Italy.
Don’t see why the economy wouldn’t bounce back after the worst is over, though.
“Death rate is running 5% in Italy.”
The ratio dead patients / identified infected people is around 5%, to sell that as real mortality is stupid, because it depends on the number od run tests.
I mean you, WHO. 🙂
We know that on the cruise ship we see a mortality of 1%, that is the upper limit due to many old people. In South Korea with a lot of testing we see at the beginning around 0.5% mortality. The same in China around Wuhan. The ratio will increase as tests have a hard ceiling.
If we have to assume 100-200 infected people per dead patient then the situation looks ugly in Italy: 400 dead people mean around 50.000 infected of whom only 7000 are identified. ATM there is a good chance that the USA will face the same situation.
0.5% is still plenty bad. Think how many people you are acquainted with or just know by sight. Now eliminate one out of every two hundred. I suspect that each of us would notice tens of people missing, if not more.
Not everyone will be infected, and we still do not know enough to estimate the likely infection rate over time. The virus may or may not have a seasonal pattern. In the mean time, I am still getting on airplanes. Being Typhoid Mary doe not have much appeal. But there is this pesky job thing, and I have no symptoms. I do not know anybody who does. Does that make any of us not a carrier? We do not know.
You’re correct that we don’t know the denominator. But either way you slice it, a 5% nominal death rate is no laughing matter. Here’s some news from the Kirkland Life Care Facility in Washington State.
“In a news conference Monday evening, the Life Care Center official announced the latest coronavirus test results for 35 residents:
31 positive
1 negative
3 inconclusive
Life Care Center spokesman Tim Killian said tests have been performed on the remaining residents. Results are still pending on 20 other tests.
Before the outbreak, there were 120 residents at Life Care. Now there are fewer than 60.
Statewide, there are at least 162 confirmed cases of COVID-19, according to a count by the Washington Department of Health.
Authorities said 19 coronavirus deaths have been linked to the Life Care Center in Kirkland, including three made public earlier Monday.”
This is a nasty virus, not to be trifled with.
https://q13fox.com/2020/03/09/coronavirus-new-test-results-find-31-positive-cases-at-life-care-center-in-kirkland/
That facility and population were the perfect storm. I do not believe it is representative. But we do not know how contagious the virus really is yet. SeaTac isn’t shut down yet, so presumably I will get home this afternoon.
It is highly contagious.
Ten years are below .5%. This is not good at all. Lot of folks shorting treasuries, saying they could not go lower. Could we see negative yield on ten years? Wacky world for investing right now
Menzie,
You are mischaracterizing what Moore said again. What he is saying is clearly falsifiable and we’ll know within a few months whether he is right. Moore is saying 1) the slowdown will be temporary with no recession; and 2) the temporary slowdown will happen over a matter of months, with growth coming back in time for Trump’s reelection as people see the virus under control; and 3) we don’t need a giant stimulus to address this problem, but rather small, targeted stimulus.
Do you disagree with Moore? Go on the record if you do. Will the coronavirus lead to a recession? Will the slowdown be more than temporary? Here’s your chance to prove Moore wrong.
“growth coming back in time for Trump’s reelection”.
The ONLY thing that matters to the Trump sycophants like Rick – or Mr. Moore. So let’s just do happy talk in the hope the stock market goes back up regardless of how many people end up dying.
dick, the president and his staff have already said the virus is contained. notwithstanding the current spread in seattle, new york and a host of other us locations, this is a pretty shaky position to begin an argument with. now in some ways one can consider the virus contained. since the trump administration has failed to produce a reasonable number of reliable test kits, the numbers being officially reported are obviously very low. so i guess the administration can continue to report that we have very few positive test results. but that is a rather disingenuous argument, although probably appealing to mr stryker.
seattle, new york, and even California vote blue which might encourage a right wing political hack like Trump not to care about their populations. The timing of this health crisis is just as the Census starts. I would not put it past Wilbur Ross to be promoting this virus in order to mess with their Census counts.
The virus does not vote, nor does it much care about political tribalism. Those guys might have a different thought about it once it starts ripping through the uninsured in red states. This is going to get ugly sooner rather than later.
Rick Stryker Moore’s prediction is conditioned on the US consumer recovering a sense of confidence that the virus will be under control. After Secretary Ben Carson’s lame performance yesterday I don’t think Team Trump did much to make viewers feel confident. But Moore seems to believe that confidence in Trump is all that matters. This is a global crisis amidst a global economy. Do you have confidence that the Italian government will be able to prevent its banks from collapsing, which could lead to a global financial recession? Why does Moore seem to believe that the US economy is insulated from what happens elsewhere in the world?
As to predictions, why should anyone make a prediction? The smart play is to plan for the worst and hope for the best. Moore is proving once again that not only is he not a medical doctor, he isn’t even an economist. He’s just a cheerleader. He reminds me of Tinkerbell telling us to clap our hands.
“not only is he not a medical doctor, he isn’t even an economist. He’s just a cheerleader.”
Amen to that but remember when he was asked a question about monetary policy? He rubbed his hands saying “awww monetary policy” and then went off on the virtues of the gold standard!
In fairness, the long version of “con men” is “confidence men.”
As soon as Moore said “the economy is fine” anyone with a clue knew that was a signal to SELL SELL SELL!!!
Or Trump is already coming to the conclusion that the economy (without the impact of Covid-19 and the Oil crisis) is already slowing down and he wouldn’t mind an economic slowdown to continue so he can boast that “We were on pace for the greatest period of economic growth in America’s history. Economists and other people I know were saying that 4,5,6% growth was just around the corner, but the radical democratic socialist left opposed all the precautions I want and they are politicizing a flu like bug and scaring people into not going out.”
BTW the quote isn’t a ‘mischaracterization’ The first part was the lead to the ‘robust economy’ that he predicted. Not sure what economic reports he is reading but they don’t seem robust to me and are going south.
Hey, it’s a “blip”! Been a while since we’ve had one.
Rick Stryker: I listened to his talk; he said several months, which is hard to distinguish from many months. And he said “when it’s contained”. Well, I think we’re past that.
I think recession is more than likely, yes. Current PredictIt odds for recession in Trump 1st term at 64%. (By the way, I think I proved Moore wrong on Kansas already…)
“Kids, we’re going to have to skip the outdoor picnic today. Gramps’s legs are tired and he has to sit down. No no, Gramps loves spending time with you, he just wants to play Canasta with his friends Dick Cheney, John McCain, and Barkley Junior, and we have to break it to Gramps slowly and softly that his friend John McCain is dead now. Yes, I know this is the <b eighth time we told him McCain is dead. Maybe Gramps will feel strong enough tomorrow to go on the picnic with you.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/07/bernie-sanders-joe-biden-arizona-debate-123467
cood topice
Discussion point?
Because people are passing the virus on through personal contact could this be the first recession to be centered, start, in the services sector rather than the traditional manufacturing recession?
Talk among your selves.
spencer I was wondering the same thing. Last week I went to get my eye exam and some new glasses. I asked the optometrist if he was concerned that people might stop getting their exams if things got worse. He said he was wondering the same thing himself and figured he’d just have to tap into his savings and investments. That’s a prescription for a financial recession as well. A lot of “novel” things about this possible future recession. It would have a supply shock component, a financial sector component, an aggregate demand component and it might affect the service sector more than the goods sector.
Remember the Samuelson remark, the market has forecast ten of the last seven recessions.
The situation is a prepper’s dream: market dropping with prices probably following as competition for any sales heats up, assets in gold and cash, a big stock of freeze-dried food, and a self-contained dwelling.
But realistically, once the real scope of the problem is understood and amelioration actions are effected, things will begin to normalize. That may be six weeks or six months, but Moore is probably right although “roaring” may be overstating the case. The economy did not “roar” back to life after the last major downturn. There may be significant re-thinking about supply chains and markets because of the vulnerabilities exposed by Covid 19. You know … eggs in one basket ….
Wow, oil below $30 around midnight, but recovered to $34. Well, that will make that summer road trip that won’t happen less expensive.
My personal opinion (yes, opinion) is that this crisis is somewhat overblown and will fall into the Ebola, SARS, MERS, sky-is-falling category once more facts and protocols are in place. But fear is a powerful de-motivator.
Dr. Bruce Hall has spoken. No need to worry about this virus. Go out. Enjoy life. Spend like crazy. MAGA!
Oh wait – Mr. Hall has no degree especially a medical degree. But he THINKS is smarter than the real doctors. Sort of like his hero – Trump.
pgl has spoken as an “economic” expert on all things medical: https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/07/un-refuses-to-call-coronavirus-outbreak-a-pandemic-scientists-disagree
He reminds me of by granddaughter running down the aisle at Costco yelling “coronavirus, coronavirus”.
He is also an expert on all things oil-related: https://www.wsj.com/articles/offshore-oil-sector-slammed-by-price-plunge-coronavirus-fears-11583764723
I don’t shop at Costco but I bet you did this weekend. I hear you tried to kiss all the old ladies! Ewwww!
@ pgl
Agism!!!! Agism!!!!! Your subscription to “O, The Oprah Magazine” has been rescinded and the remainder of the value of your subscription payment is in the mail.
Also, there is a safe space being offered on campus. Go to the “Anything Within Earshot That Makes Me Self-reflect In a Negative Fashion, Is Too Much For Me, An Adult” Room in the Department of Gender Studies building.
pgl you’re mistaking me for your buddy Joe B.
‘Bruce Hall
March 9, 2020 at 3:12 pm
pgl you’re mistaking me for your buddy Joe B.’
Actually a lot of Bernie Bros and Trumpsters alike are calling Joe B. old and senile. It seems that they are mistaking Bruce Hall for Biden!
Oil prices may have fallen but not all markets are as low as Bruce “no relationship to Robert” Hall’s 34. Yes WTI is around $34.
https://oilprice.com/
Now talking about falling oil prices in a thread about COVID-19 suggests this is some fall in the demand curve. But the link to oilprice.com notes this is more of a supply shift with the Saudi increasing production.
I guess one could expect Brucie to get the market reason for declining oil prices but by now I realize: (a) he does not read much; and (b) the stuff he reads related to economics he does not understand.
pgl the oil price drop reminds me of an old Carly Simon song. Can you guess which one? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDJ_Mz8ftqI
Speaking of the oil stock slide – I posted this mocking your stupid first post and THEN you decided to school me as what I just said? Damn Bruce – are you senile or what?
pgl you posted the link to the Carly Simon video? I must have missed that.
Bruce Hall this crisis is somewhat overblown and will fall into the Ebola, SARS, MERS, sky-is-falling category
I suspect that you’re only minimizing Ebola because it didn’t get to this country. You might want to talk to people who were actually on the ground in Africa. Managing Ebola was a Herculean effort.
Researchers in Bern have produced some new mortality rates that are conditioned on age and whether the person was simply infected or showed symptoms. Basically the mortality rate for someone with symptoms is about double the mortality rate for someone that was infected. If you’re in your 70s, the mortality rate from infection is about 9.8%, but the mortality rate with symptoms is 20%. For someone in their 80s the numbers are 18% and 36%, respectively.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1.full.pdf
Gilead Sciences is doing phase III trials on a treatment for COVID-19 that was originally thought to be useful for Ebola. So yea I can see where Brucie might be confused. The folks at Gilead actually know what they are doing even as Brucie boy is still trying to learn how to tie his shoe laces!
Single statistic Bruce “no relation to Robert” Hall has been ordered to do happy talk:
“Wow, oil below $30 around midnight, but recovered to $34. Well, that will make that summer road trip that won’t happen less expensive.”
That’s a good MAGA hat wearing Trump sycophant Brucie. Keep up the happy talk and pay no attention to what is really happening in the real world:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/dow-futures-drop-700-points-as-all-out-oil-price-war-adds-to-coronavirus-stress.html
Dow plummets more than 1,700 points, S&P 500 sinks 6% amid oil price war
What was that Mr. Moore? Stephen Moore: “the market and the real economy will burst back to life? Yea –right!
“My personal opinion (yes, opinion) is that this crisis is somewhat overblown and will fall into the Ebola, SARS, MERS, sky-is-falling category once more facts and protocols are in place.”
That opinion is NOT shared by experts. If you speak German the podcast by Prof. Drosten (Charite Berlin) is very good, if you only speak English I would suggest to follow Twiv:
http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/
The Chinese may now face the dilemma that bringing back online the economy will also increase infections again.
Lawrence Kudlow and Kelly Anne Conway both declared this is contained. Don’t you believe these two “experts”?
“Lawrence Kudlow and Kelly Anne Conway both declared this is contained.”
Obviously it is not contained. Therefore, they lie. Sometimes hard data are a bitch. 🙂
Hard data v. “alternative facts”!
It’s already beyond most of those in this country. There’s a single epicenter right now, but there’s no telling how far the virus may have spread undetected. We are just paying attention carefully now, which is different from certainty. The test kits aren’t widely available yet, so there’s a pretty good chance the virus is far more widespread than we know. Think about that the next time you handle paper money. Ah, maybe you don’t want to think about that any more than anything else.
The fact that it may be more widespread also means it may be less lethal than we currently think. It also may mean we just don’t know yet. The knock on effects of tariffs aren’t fully known yet, since that’s all still filtering through. Now the energy sector is going to get whacked good and hard, with effect in boom areas like the Dakotas and Texas. There’s a pretty decent number of people who live in Texas and are part of the energy sector last time I checked. Hurt them, and it will leave a mark.
So, there’s a double whammy going right now, and an administration that is led by an utter incompetent. He went bust playing with house money. Think about that for a while.
I find reading newspapers unsatisfying.
Look here every day and draw your own conslusions.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Note some of the countries’ data may not be so precise each day.
I just mixed up some 75% (91%) alcohol hand sanitizer with “aveeno” lotion. Got to sanitize thos keyboard.
617 cases in the US so far and 22 deaths. That is quite close to the percentage reported as likely by the WHO. Trump on the other hand said the percentage would be far less – even less than 1%. Yes – Trump knows more about this than the medical experts in his own mind. Trump is almost as much of a joke as your boss – Putin. Oh wait Putin is also Trump’s boss!
The WHO number is only an apparent mortality, it depends on level of testing. Countries with low testing get high “mortality”.
Trumps number is correct. :-)))
We will not truly have all the facts until Joe Biden becomes President.
15 of the 22 at one nursing home facility in Washington. That does skew the data somewhat when the deaths are concentrated at a facility full of frail and sickly people.
as i have stated in previous posts, this is why it will be a demographic changer for this country. and we have a greater concentration of nursing home type facilities than many of the countries currently under attack by covid19.
Yes, is my interpretation too. However, you have the same picture as Italy at the beginning. Dead people indicate an issue (many unidentified infected people), you trail Italy by three 3 weeks.
The second aspect is how US health insurance system motivates people to report symtoms.
Let’s see how many of those at CPAC get sick and die. Oh – you did not realize that Trump was shaking hands with an infected person. Well – neither did he realize it. He apparently still doesn’t.
It is pretty tough to predict what this virus is really all about. My 83 year old mother remarked that the virus could solve Social Security problems right quick. And then helpfully pointed out that my wife and I are officially in the vulnerable demographic. A bit of gallows humor is always good at a time like this.
As far as I can tell, this virus has already had a far greater world wide impact than any since Spanish Flu. If that doesn’t have an effect, then count me as surprised. But MAGA, and atta boy Little Lord Trump-Leroy. How long before he has a photo op in a gas mask, throwing out surgical masses to a crowd? He is a mindless germophobe, so it would be fitting if a germ ended his lucky streak.
“My 83 year old mother remarked that the virus could solve Social Security problems right quick.”
Brian Riedl’s solution to high deficits has always been slashing Social Security payments. I bet that Manhattan Institute never imagined this “cure” would hit New York City but it has. It even hit CPAC!
Here is pgl’s economic soulmate: https://www.yahoo.com/news/paul-krugman-market-signaling-permanent-150000597.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vQkd2vUiIA
Bruce Hall: A TIPS *10 year* yield at negative 50 bps is suggestive of a longer-term issue (cf expectations hypothesis of the term structure…)
Menzie, I understand what you’re writing, but I discount the notion of a “permanent recession” unless we experience a multi-year “pandemic” which I also discount. This is wild-assed fear and there are going to be some people who get quite wealthy taking advantage of that.
Bruce Hall: And according to Don Luskin, “Things today just aren’t that bad” (in September 2008)…
I bet Bruce Hall is of the view that Donald Luskin deserves the Nobel Prize in economics!
I’d go with Krugman over Kudlow over any issue – especially macroeconomics.
One stock is doing well BECAUSE of COVID-19:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GILD/
Gilead Sciences is in phase III trial for remdesivir, which may be an effective treatment.
Some actual data coming in on Covid 19 from S. Korea and China: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312
That’s the same mortality rate as SARS: https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html. Now, being the pgl-advocate, I’ll point out that SARS infected a much smaller number than Covid 19. The fact is, however, that Covid 19 appears to be equivalent to a very serious strain of the flu.
Meanwhile…
• https://finance.yahoo.com/news/behind-scenes-scientists-prep-covid-133010863.html
• https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/08/scientists-virus-vaccine-race-create/111407904/
• https://cntechpost.com/2020/03/08/chinese-researcher-develops-covid-19-vaccine/
Unlike Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, I … not Robert Hall … find the notion of a permanent recession due to Covid 19 particularly absurd. https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1237001949293301761?
Bruce Hall: Who said permanent recession? Such a prediction implies output asymptotes to zero. I’m guessing nobody predicted such a thing. However, recession with no V-shaped snapback is possible.
Menzie read the link to Paul Krugman’s twitter post above. Sure, he’s being somewhat facetious.
As to no snapback, sure, anything could happen. I suspect that a lot of people were getting nervous about the stratospheric level of the stock market and any excuse would trigger a sell-off. After all, this “non-recession” period has been going on quite awhile. Moore could be correct if the Covid 19 “epidemic” fizzles out due to diligence and medications. There will be too many market bargains to ignore and there will be too much catching up for businesses and consumers.
Maybe the one good thing will be that people pick up some good hygiene practices.
Bruce Hall Even if the COVID-19 epidemic or pandemic subsides in a few months, the wealth effect will likely persist for quite some time. Markets have a way of falling fast and recovering slowly. Negative wealth effects act as negative shocks to aggregate demand. And a lot of consumption does not lend itself to the kind of “catching up” that you have in mind. To take a simple example, suppose you get a haircut once a month but due to the virus you wait three months and just go all hippy. Then you finally go to the barber and get your hair cut. The barber only cuts it once, not three times. And you’re probably not going to catch up on all those missed restaurant meals. And your wife’s manicurist isn’t going to cut your wife’s fingernails three times as often. That’s just the nature of the service economy.
The best way to improve the odds that the COVID-19 scare fizzles out is to recognize that it’s not just like a severe case of the flu. That’s just wrong. It’s also dangerous because it encourages a kind of irresponsible behavior. Ebola and SARS were eventually contained and controlled ONLY because people took it very seriously. I can’t imagine what would have happened if the Ebola outbreak had happened under a President Trump. In hindsight the African continent dodged catastrophe because those in charge were alert enough to push the panic button.
Bruce Hall The fact is, however, that Covid 19 appears to be equivalent to a very serious strain of the flu.
What? Did you even read your own link? The mortality rate for those SARS patients that were symptomatic was 9.4%. The mortality rate for people with flu symptoms (i.e., about 11% of the 45 million Americans who actually get the flu are symptomatic) is 0.93%. SARS is an order of magnitude more severe than the common flu. And before you go joining your granddaughter on her next trip to Costco, you might want to check your driver’s I.D. for your age. If you’re over 70 and you develop symptoms, the best odds you can expect for surviving 6 weeks after infection is 4 in 5; i.e., a 20% chance you’re done for.
You’ve told us you were some kind of engineer. If so, then presumably you’re familiar with Weibull curves in reliability engineering. (Just an aside, my old office formulated the math for the commonly used Crow-AMSAA Weibull curve.) Anyway, the medical counterpart of a parametric Weibull curve is the non-parametric Kaplan-Meier survivability curve.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaplan–Meier_estimator
You’re going to see that same kind of thing with mortality rates coming from COVID-19. People don’t just immediately fall over dead. People linger…sometimes for quite some time. The long run effect of COVID-19 will take some time to show up as a downward shift in the survival curves.
“Did you even read your own link?”
That was a good post but this is a stupid question. We have seen countless times where Trump sycophant follows the marching orders from Kelly Anne Conway and puts up stuff he never bothered to read or understand.
“The fact is, however, that Covid 19 appears to be equivalent to a very serious strain of the flu.”
bruce, it is in fact more deadly than a very serious strain of the flu. furthermore, and this is what is causing the panic, as of today we do not have an effective therapeutic against covid19. we do have effective therapeutics against the flu. this is a major difference. this is why health care workers are taking a serious toll in china today. bruce, you are being ignorant of the reality of covid19.
Personal report from Italy
My brother lives in Lucca, Italy ( near Florence) and sent the following report.
We’re not quite at the “Bring Our Your Dead” stage. Schools & museums are closed, flights are being canceled, but all in all life in Lucca is quiet & normal. Many shops are closed for their usual breaks this time of year. There are virtually no tourists, but this is the slow season. Nancy just spent the weekend in Florence and found it to be delightfully empty.
Tuscany is not in the area where travel is being restricted—as yet. Bars and restaurants are open for the most part, but are told to keep one meter of space between customers.
The authorities are being quite active to do what they can. One reason that Italy has reported so many cases is they they have tested so many more people than the US, for example.
To add to the chaotic nature of all this, today there were riots in 27 prisons throughout Italy after the bosses cut off family visit
And now the entire nation of Italy has been locked down.
As a cyclist fan – I’m wondering whether in May they can do the Giro d’ Italia. I’m sure the cyclists will be fine but the spectators are awesome crowds that Trump can only wish for.
“One reason that Italy has reported so many cases is they they have tested so many more people than the US, for example.”
That is not correct. The high apparent mortality in Italy indicated that they do not identify many infected people with their tests.
500 dead patients means 50000 – 100000 infected people, of which only 8000 are identified.
matt gaetz, the putz who wore a gas mask to sign legislation last week
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/politics/gaetz-coronavirus-gas-mask/index.html
is now under coronavirus quarantine for shaking rick strykers hand at the cpac convention. how ironic.
It would be especially ironic if the stunt was also followed by infecting Trump. He was on Air Force One hours before isolating himself.
personally, i do not think any of the congressmen currently under isolation were infectious at the time they interacted with the president. and i am not so sadistic to hope certain political affiliations were afflicted by this virus. that said, it will be interesting to see how some of these critters change their behavior once the theoretical threat of exposure becomes a realistic threat of exposure. matt gaetz should be completely embarrassed by his performance last week. it was utterly disgusting, juvenile, and something i would expect from a rick stryker, not a congressman.
That guy? He is one of the lower forms of human. I wouldn’t put much of anything past him. I don’t wish this virus, or any virus on anybody. What this whole episode demonstrates is that juvenile stunts and wishful thinking don’t get you anywhere.
Peter Thiel was only right this time. He indicated the Trump mal-administration would end in a calamity. Guess what he was right.