Reader Comment from March 9th

Bruce Hall, on Stephen Moore’s “roaring back” comment, about a month ago:

The situation is a prepper’s dream: market dropping with prices probably following as competition for any sales heats up, assets in gold and cash, a big stock of freeze-dried food, and a self-contained dwelling.

But realistically, once the real scope of the problem is understood and amelioration actions are effected, things will begin to normalize. That may be six weeks or six months, but Moore is probably right although “roaring” may be overstating the case. The economy did not “roar” back to life after the last major downturn. There may be significant re-thinking about supply chains and markets because of the vulnerabilities exposed by Covid 19. You know … eggs in one basket ….

Wow, oil below $30 around midnight, but recovered to $34. Well, that will make that summer road trip that won’t happen less expensive.

My personal opinion (yes, opinion) is that this crisis is somewhat overblown and will fall into the Ebola, SARS, MERS, sky-is-falling category once more facts and protocols are in place. But fear is a powerful de-motivator.

I think we can now safely say the the crisis was not “overblown”. Deutsche Bank’s March 30th forecast for the US, shows a persistent hit to the level of GDP.

Source: Deutsche Bank, 3/30/2020.

Source: Goldman Sachs, 3/31/2020.

Addendum, 4/10: For Bruce Hall, a review of the non-randomized trial on hydroxychloriquine-Azithromycin regimen, here (by a bunch of statisticians, so what do they know?).

63 thoughts on “Reader Comment from March 9th

  1. Moses Herzog

    I don’t have any real deep thoughts to add here. But one thing that strikes me as very peculiar about Bruce Hall’s comment now that we are going back over it (aside from it being wrong). Bruce uses the term “prepper”. Now, as a person who admittedly spends a lot of time wandering the internet, more than I should, and even occasionally in some of it’s more “darker” corners shall we say, I’m very familiar with the term prepper, in addition to occasionally listening to Alex Jones a couple years back for mostly a guilty pleasure. Prepper is a term and a style of life which is heavily dominated by right-wingers. Now I’m sure Bruce Hall will disagree, but I would even go so far as o say “Preppers” are composed of 85% ring-wingers, 10% Anarchists or people who don’t even know what the hell they are themselves, and maybe about 5% extreme lefties. I am not saying ALL “preppers” are crazy. But I would say a preponderance of them are. I’d compare it to a certain religious order in Utah without naming names. Are they ALL nut jobs?? No….. But you could randomly put one of them in a mental ward and most of the time you’d get it right.

    My point being here—why is Bruce Hall ragging on (and using as a derogatory term) a group heavily weighted by right-wingers??

    1. Moses Herzog

      *85% right-wingers. I swear to God I’m never gonna get used to this spell-check which changes everything I type into everything but what I intend to type. I either have to re-read everything 5 times, or I’m gonna read up and figure out how to cancel my spell-check. It is SO damned annoying.

    2. macroduck

      They are apparently the wrong right-wingers. Before the days of lock-step Republican ideology (which changes in its particulars at the convenience of them in power), it was obvious that the right had several disparate factions. Still does, but they are loathe to reveal differences.

  2. Moses Herzog

    Because I view this not only as an economics blog, but as a blog with above average intelligence readers, and those thirsting for knowledge, and knowledge they have a decent chance of being applicable to their daily lives, I like to share things such as the following. Menzie, I haven’t watched ALL of this yet, but because of the host channel, educational background of speakers, and topic, it’s safe to say there’s nothing vulgar in the entire video. This YT video relates to COVID-19 and arming yourself with knowledge, which in my personal opinion, will make you safer than having a surgical mask—which provides no self-protection, unless EVERYONE wears one, which is ridiculous “on the face of it” (yeah, bad pun intended)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9A4FMpwcQM

  3. pgl

    Is Bruce Hall still pushing that snake oil aka anti-malaria drug as some allegedly proven treatment for COVID-19. It isn’t but Trump is pushing it hard these days. Of course Trump owns shares in the company hoping people are foolish enough to buy this snake oil.

    1. Paul Mathis

      Actually, I think Trump is hoping it is a silver bullet that will stop the pandemic and therefore get him re-elected. It probably is his only hope now.

  4. Moses Herzog

    And the winner of the 2020 Marinko Lucic Memorial Humanitarian Coach of the Year goes to…….. Mike Gundy:
    https://oklahoman.com/article/5659659/osu-football-mike-gundy-has-plan-for-return-of-football

    The social studies major and self appointed epidemiologist, mostly known for his deep pontifications on life, and his maturity level….. is soon to be named co-chair of the President’s Council on Sports:
    https://sports.yahoo.com/oklahoma-state-threatened-press-player-interview-embargo-single-transfer-question-051439540.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjF93E4LjlA

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fMREP0rhsU

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-lBP0Adb5g

  5. 2slugbaits

    Bruce Hall’s comment was all over the ballpark. And he contradicted himself almost as much as Trump does in one of his COVID-19 briefings. Bruce tells us that “… things will begin to normalize. That may be six weeks or six months.” Well, there’s quite a difference between six weeks and six months. And notice that Bruce isn’t telling us that things will be back to normal within this fuzzy time frame, but that they “will begin to normalize.” I’m guessing that Bruce was wearing his MAGA hat when he wrote that Trumpian double-speak. Minimize the threat on the one hand while maximizing the escape route from taking any responsibility.

    And then we get this example of muddled thinking: Moore is probably right although “roaring” may be overstating the case. Which is it? Is Moore right or is he overstating how fast the economy will come back? Another Trump trick of having your cake and eating it too. And then Bruce immediately hedges even more by reminding us that the “economy did not “roar” back to life after the last major downturn.” So Bruce told us that Moor is probably right that the economy will come roaring back, but roaring might be too strong a word, but then again the economy might not come roaring back. Very helpful.

    Finally, we get this gem: “My personal opinion (yes, opinion) is that this crisis is somewhat overblown and will fall into the Ebola, SARS, MERS, sky-is-falling category once more facts and protocols are in place. But fear is a powerful de-motivator.” In other words, I warn you that doing X means consequence Y is likely and you heed my warning. Consequence Y does not happen. Therefore you conclude that you needn’t have heeded my warning because consequence Y did not happen and you could have done action X. This is Fox Noise thinking. Bruce agrees that fear is a powerful de-motivator and will cause people to take actions that will reduce the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths, but then seems to pooh-pooh those warnings as just chicken little sky-is-falling nonsense; i.e., the old “Democrat hoax” party line from Team Fox. I don’t think Bruce is a stupid guy, but listening to Fox can make you say, write and think stupid things.

  6. Bruce Hall

    I’ve refrained from commenting for awhile, but I appreciate my whole comment being quoted rather than a parsed version. The salient portion was:

    But realistically, once the real scope of the problem is understood and amelioration actions are effected, things will begin to normalize. That may be six weeks or six months, but Moore is probably right although “roaring” may be overstating the case. The economy did not “roar” back to life after the last major downturn. There may be significant re-thinking about supply chains and markets because of the vulnerabilities exposed by Covid 19.

    • The Chinese government has been downplaying (lying?) about the number of people affected; they still seem to be lying based on the crematorium activity noted from many sources. This withheld information may have caused a less vigorous initial response in the U.S.
    • Trump did take action in January to temporarily end travel with China and in February, Pelosi was encouraging Californians to go out and help celebrate the Chinese New Year (who was correct?). One was condemned for not being politically correct; the other was praised for being politically correct.
    • The model used by the government to estimate death appears to have been overstated by three times observed so decisions to shut down large portions of the economy may have been skewed by faulty information; we’ll never be able to separate the actions’ impacts from the virulency of the virus. The number was recently updated from ~81,000 deaths to ~60,000 deaths. That’s comparable to a serious flu season such as the one we’re currently experiencing. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america (last chart). Also refer to: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
    • All deaths are attributed to the Covid-19 virus if the virus is present including elderly people with serious underlying health problems; meanwhile the total other deaths during the winter-spring period are down from a typical which implies an overstatement of the Covid-19 virus impact
    • Hydroxychloroquine and azirthromycin are being used with at least some positive impact… some clinical and some anecdotal: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/7/michigan-democrat-thanks-trump-hydroxychloroquine-/
    It will be impossible to separate the economic cost of Covid-19 infections from what appears to be an overreaction by state and federal governments. I know this is a contentious statement, but I’m open to anyone who can provide proof that economic disruption from the virus alone would have been more than the economic disruption caused by the combination of forcing the economy to shut down in addition to the direct economic impact of illness/deaths caused by the virus.
    • Has “social distancing” been effective? Yes. It’s also effective during a severe flu season when the economy is not shut down.

    Other factors:
    • The demand for ventilators may have been misplaced: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/826105278/ventilators-are-no-panacea-for-critically-ill-covid-19-patients
    • Hydroxychloroquine may be effective because it appears to reduce the availability of iron the virus needs to survive and replicate. Other drugs may have a similar action or provide an oxygenating effect: https://news.yahoo.com/discovery-brought-us-viagra-could-110004919.html
    • What was thought to be pneumonia from Covid-19 may have been something similar to ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) or oxygen deprivation which cannot be helped much by ventilators. Some doctors are now trying ozone infusion with success. http://www.sbwire.com/press-releases/covid-19-treatment-dr-howard-robins-dr-robert-rowen-say-ozone-therapy-ready-to-treat-simple-inexpensive-and-available-1282882.htm. That, of course, is “anecdotal”.

    After saying all of that, do I stick by my original statement? Well, given the massive government-forced shutdowns, I’d say 6 months before things normalize (not fully recover) is still a reasonable projection (late September/early October). Large corporations will get by; small businesses have been devastated by forced economic shutdowns and that’s where the recovery lag will occur and where the assistance should be focused. Unfortunately, banks seem unwilling to support small business loans in this environment.

    1. pgl

      2slug is right – you are all over the map. Rather than waste my time with your numerous lies and excuses, permit to correct just one thing:

      “Trump did take action in January to temporarily end travel with China”/

      I guess you did not know that 430 thousand people have flown here from China during this temporary travel ban. Trump screwed up even the one thing he and you brag about. BTW – are you still pushing that snake oil anti-malaria thing. Trump is as he owns shares in the company that makes this snake oil.

      1. Bruce Hall

        pgl, I expected nothing more from you… which was basically nothing.

        As for your 430,000 number, I read the NYT, too.

        430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced
        There were 1,300 direct flights to 17 cities before President Trump’s travel restrictions. Since then, nearly 40,000 Americans and other authorized travelers have made the trip, some this past week and many with spotty screening.

        Trump administration officials have also said they received significant pushback about imposing the restrictions even when they did. At the time, the World Health Organization was not recommending travel restrictions, Chinese officials rebuffed them and some scientists questioned whether curtailing travel would do any good. Some Democrats in Congress said they could lead to discrimination.

        So, the real number is 40,000 or <10% the number you reference. Yeah, not perfect, but far more controlled. Unfortunately, that two-month total number isn't broken down by weekly or daily data, so we can't see the trend. Maybe Trump should have listened to those who complained about that action being discriminatory. Then the inundation of the virus could have been maximized.

        1. pgl

          40 thousand Americans. Yea I get it – Chinese are not people. They are evil aliens. But hey dumbass – this virus travels regardless of race. So take your racist and stupid garbage where it belongs – the Sean Hannity Show.

          “not perfect, but far more controlled. ” You sound like Kudlow with his line that we had this contained. Tell that to all the families in America that have lost loved ones to the disease that he said would never happen. But then again – you did admit seniors should die for the good of electing Trump in 2020! MAGA!

    2. pgl

      Nitric Oxide? How a discovery that brought us Viagra could help those battling the coronavirus

      More snake oil from the charlatan named Bruce Hall. You are beyond shame. But I guess you need Viagra just to get your thing out of bed.

      BTW – this is a lie:

      “Hydroxychloroquine and azirthromycin are being used with at least some positive impact… some clinical and some anecdotal”

      The only clinical trials have been on lab rats. Come on Bruce – do not pretend you get biopharma research. The smart people at Gilead Sciences are reading your stupid BS and laughing too hard. They need to get back to work.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @pgl
        Well, you know I do not have the work ethic and ambition to get a medical degree. And whether I have the intelligence to get a medical degree is eh, er, uh, uhm, a dubious question. But here is a story from your neck of the woods that surely got my attention. What if you subtract azithromycin from the equation and add in something better??
        https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/long-island-doctor-tries-new-hydroxychloroquine-for-covid-19-patients/

        Similar to my thoughts on loading up with Vitamin D before you get the virus, I think there is something here. If they were mostly young patients we could go “Well, they were going to make it out of the virus anyway.” But 38 out of 47 older patients??? Something is here in this tactic by Dr. Mohammud Alam.

      2. Bruce Hall

        pgl, I presume your MD certification is valid in all 50 states the way you discount what various doctors say. You laughed at hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin because Trump said something positive, didn’t you? Of course your did. You’re the BS-er. While MDs and PhD researchers are looking for potential treatments and cures, you mock all of the efforts because, well, that’s just you.

        The mere mention of what some doctors and researchers are looking into sends you into paroxysms of inappropriate laughter and random word rebuttals. Stick to the stock market where I’m sure you’ve beaten the averages by losing only 15%.

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Bruce Hall: I might have a little more tolerance for Mr. Trump hawking unproven protocols over other perhaps more promising protocols had he not had a financial interest in the manufacturer of hydroxychloroquine.

          1. Bruce Hall

            Menzie, according to an article in Marketwatch yesterday, the value of President Trump’s “investment” could be around $99. That’s hardly incentive for POTUS to “hawk” a medicine (bigger fish to catch?). https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-personal-stake-in-the-malaria-drug-maker-sanofi-could-be-as-small-as-99-2020-04-07

            Let’s just get to the point: off-label use of approved medications is not a new phenomenon. Off-label means that an approved medication has not undergone clinical trials for the purpose it is being prescribed. That does not mean there has been no empirical evidence to support such usage. Are there risks that a medication won’t work as intended in an off-label application? Sure. Is there evidence that such off-label prescibing can be successful and safe? Certainly.

            Here are some examples: https://www.pharmacytimes.com/contributor/timothy-o-shea/2016/01/10-surprising-off-label-uses-for-prescription-medications. I could research more if you feel it is necessary, but I think you’ll get the point.

            There seems to be an inordinate amount of cheering for Trump’s failure at any cost to the nation. In the case of Covid-19 or any other epidemic, I don’t understand that mindset. Would you rather have nothing to offer because of strict adherence to 18-month clinical trial processes or would you be willing to try something that seems efficacious even if “untested” (as in 18-month clinical trials)?

            It may very well be that hydroxychloroquine is only a partial answer. It may be that some of the suggestions mocked by “Dr. pgl” such as oxygenation protocols (which might include Viagra or something more mundane like ozone infusions), may be more effective since, as NPR reported, ventilators are having a poor track record with this disease.. Should doctors who use those medications be censured? Even if they appear to be getting positive results and causing no significant side effect?

            Medicine is science, but it is also experience and intuition. Reminds me of economics.

          2. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Bruce Hall: Given that Mr. Trump has *so much* undisclosed holdings (and do we know what Trump Org has?), I am dubious. Also, curious, what does his seemingly chief adviser on things Covid, senior adviser Kushner, have…?

            [Didn’t Mr. Trump once cash a check for 13 cents?]

        2. pgl

          There are a lot of quacks who pretend to have medical degrees. I’d rather trust the folks at Gilead Sciences but I can see why you do not. After all they are smart and you just consult with MAGA wearing hat stupid people who tell you what you want to hear.

    3. Barkley Rosser

      As House Nancy Pelosi defender, I note that Chinese New Year happened before Wuhan shut down or any US cases, Trump’s move on China travel came later after both of those.

    4. 2slugbaits

      Bruce Hall You just don’t learn. You never seem to learn. You keep repeating the same mistakes over and over and over again. How many times do you have to be corrected? Maybe you should try one of those memory & brain supplement ads you see in-between those Medicare commercials.

      You parroted the Fox Noise lie about Trump imposing a travel ban and how Democrats opposed him. This is just factually wrong. It’s another Trump lie and you fell for it hook, line and sinker. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-trumps-travel-restrictions/

      Did the Chinese lie or mislead about the extent of COVID-19? Quite likely. But then you go on to suggest that it was Chinese lying that was responsible for Trump’s late response. This is pure BS. By the time Trump responded there was no doubt about the extent of the crisis. Please review the timelines. Trump sat on his fat ass for at least two months after the extent of the problem became well known to anyone with a warm pulse. Trump doesn’t have a heart, so maybe that’s why he doesn’t have a warm pulse. Trump was still in denial a mere 6 weeks ago. Remember his prediction that there were only fifteen cases and soon to be zero?

      All deaths are attributed to the Covid-19 virus if the virus is present including elderly people with serious underlying health problems; meanwhile the total other deaths during the winter-spring period are down from a typical which implies an overstatement of the Covid-19 virus impact

      Wrong. The CDC estimates that the number of flu deaths from 1 Oct 2019 thru 28 Mar 2020 is between 24K and 63K. That puts it pretty much in line with other years. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html But notice that those numbers end on 28 Mar, which is before the big surge in COVID-19 deaths. According to CDC most flu activity is between December thru February. Flu activity in March is typically low and virtually nonexistent in late March and early April. I don’t know where you got your information (althoughI can guess!), but it’s simply wrong. And it doesn’t explain why so many perfectly healthy young people are dying from COVID-19. Sorry, but your attempt to explain away the high death counts doesn’t stand up to close scrutiny.

      It will be impossible to separate the economic cost of Covid-19 infections from what appears to be an overreaction by state and federal governments. I know this is a contentious statement, but I’m open to anyone who can provide proof that economic disruption from the virus alone would have been more than the economic disruption caused by the combination of forcing the economy to shut down in addition to the direct economic impact of illness/deaths caused by the virus.

      No, you’re not open to that kind of proof. For one thing, you don’t have the economic chops to understand that kind of proof. But why don’t you provide an argument that tries to demonstrate what you think the economic consequences would have been if the state governments had not reacted? Let’s see your numbers. C’mon…dazzle us. I’m sure Menzie would be more than willing to post your economic analysis.

      And your comment on hydroxychloroquine is beyond clueless. No one is opposed to clinical trials. It may or may not provide some therapeutic value. The problem is that Trump and Fox Noise have gone way beyond making responsible statements. There are risks. So Trump is flat wrong when he asks “What do you have to lose?” One risk is that it’s caused a shortage of the drug for people that need it for other reasons, such as treating lupus. That can be a death sentence for those folks. Another risk is that it can cause heart attacks in certain people. Another risk is that MAGA hatters are treating it as a prophylactic, which is reckless. It killed some MAGA hatter in Arizona and put his wife in intensive care. Another risk is that if you’re taking hydroxychloroquine it means that you’re not taking what appear to be other more promising drugs.

      do I stick by my original statement?
      Of course you do. Being a conservative Trumper means never having to say you’re wrong. It’s a sign of weakness.

      1. Bruce Hall

        2slug normally I might disagree with you, but I don’t become abusive.

        • Overstating Covid-19 deaths: https://twitter.com/chrisbergPOVNOW/status/1247680994821509121
        • Your proof regarding economic impact of Covid-19 alone versus Covid-19 exacerbated by forced shutdowns? Good deflection, but not proof.
        • Since hydroxychloroquine has shown positive results in admittedly sporadic small trials, are you suggesting that the empirical evidence be ignored so that long-term clinical trials can be completed. Even the FDA allows Right to Try when a patient is dying.
        • Using an example of someone taking a non-medicinal form of chloroquine which resulted in death as an argument against the use of the medication is simply asinine. Arsenic is used in medications. https://www.webmd.com/vitamins/ai/ingredientmono-1226/arsenic. If someone learns that and decides to ingest arsenic and dies, do you argue against the valid used of that substance?
        • With regard to CDC estimates of flu deaths, is it less valid than the model estimates of Covid-19 deaths which seem to have an enormous range of uncertainty, but were used by state and federal government to implement emergency actions?

        I’m sorry 2slug, but your responses are knee-jerk reactions to a presumption that anything done by the Trump administration is automatically wrong and counter-productive. You need to be a little more open to possibilities.

        1. 2slugbaits

          Bruce Hall A twitter story from Minnesota??? That’s your argument for COVID-19 deaths being overstated? Look, you claimed that many of the folks whose deaths were attributed to COVID-19 were people who would have died from seasonal flu. You’re way off base. You could probably find a few cases, but you should learn the difference between anecdotes and data. The flu season was essentially over before we started seeing the spike in COVID-19 deaths. Those older people who died from COVID-19 were folks who had already survived the flu season. Your argument might have some merit if we started seeing a spike in COVID-19 deaths during the heart of flu season (Dec, Jan & Feb), but we didn’t. Almost all of the COVID-19 deaths have occurred after flu season. Your argument simply doesn’t work.

          Since hydroxychloroquine has shown positive results in admittedly sporadic small trials, are you suggesting that the empirical evidence be ignored

          That’s a strawman argument because no one is saying it should be ignored. I’m fine with clinical trials. We should do them. What I’m against is overselling its effectiveness. You and Trump and Fox & Friends have been overselling hydroxychloroquine. It might have some therapeutic value, or it might not. Trump would do best if he just kept his mouth shut about hydroxychloroquine. Trump should just shut up and let the scientists do the empirical work. And you surely shouldn’t let high school graduate Sean Hannity talk about empirical clinical trials. MAGA hatters listened to Trump and died using it. Your analogy with arsenic is off point and irrelevant. If doctors want to prescribe hydroxychloroquine in a clinical trial environment with all of the proper controls, that’s fine. But that’s not what people were hearing when Trump praised its therapeutic value. They heard claptrap about some miracle cure and telling them that they had nothing to lose.

          As to the model estimates, I’m guessing that you’ve never had any professional experience with models. Most of the model estimates resulted from different scenarios. The models were not making unconditional forecasts, they were providing policy makers with a menu of conditional forecasts. That’s how modeling works. Do you know the difference between a conditional estimate and an unconditional estimate?

          Your proof regarding economic impact of Covid-19 alone versus Covid-19 exacerbated by forced shutdowns? Good deflection, but not proof.

          Huh? I asked you to give us your estimate of what the economic effects of COVID-19 if the state and federal governments had taken the same “do nothing” approach that you and sammy recommended. BTW, howz that economic analysis coming along? I’m sure Menzie is waiting to post it.

          your responses are knee-jerk reactions to a presumption that anything done by the Trump administration is automatically wrong and counter-productive

          Well, Trump does have a pretty bad track record. He’s botched almost everything he’s touched. I give him credit for the crime bill, but that’s about it. As to this pandemic, he started off slow and didn’t want to confront the facts. Then a few weeks ago there was a period of three or four days when it sounded like he finally got it. I was almost ready to give him some credit, but then he reverted to form and we saw the same old Trump. And now he daily embarrasses himself with late afternoon Trump Show pseudo-MAGA rallies in which he just endlessly rambles in some stream of consciousness babbling. And then he’ll insult some journalist. Same old same old.

          1. Bruce Hall

            Wow, 2slug, you just outdid yourself. I state that it’s impossible to separate the economic impact of Covid-19 without government shutting things down and asked you to give me your numbers if you think it’s possible… and then you claim I’m refusing to give you my numbers which I stated was impossible. But I have to admire your chutzpah.

            “• It will be impossible to separate the economic cost of Covid-19 infections from what appears to be an overreaction by state and federal governments. I know this is a contentious statement, but I’m open to anyone who can provide proof that economic disruption from the virus alone would have been more than the economic disruption caused by the combination of forcing the economy to shut down in addition to the direct economic impact of illness/deaths caused by the virus.”

          2. pgl

            There are a lot of people who died at home from COVID-19 that have not yet been counted. So the official tally likely understates the death count. But remember Brucie advocated that these old people die for the good of the cause – reelecting Trump. MAGA!

        2. 2slugbaits

          Bruce Hall Regarding your Minnesota claim of overstated COVID-19 deaths, you might find this interesting. Both Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx are pushing back against these baseless conspiracy theories coming from GOP hacks:

          Dr. Deborah Birx and Dr. Anthony Fauci pushed back on conspiracy theories suggesting that coronavirus deaths in the US are being inflated, especially among those dying with existing underlying conditions.

          “We’ve made it very clear, every time I’ve been up here, about the comorbidities,” Birx said Wednesday during the White House press briefing. “This has been known from the beginning. So those individuals will have an underlying condition but that underlying condition did not cause their acute death when it’s related to a Covid infection.”
          “Having an underlying condition and getting this virus, we know, is particularly damaging to those individuals,” Birx added.

          Fauci took things a step further, saying, “You will always have conspiracy theories when you have very challenging public health crises. They are nothing but distractions.”

          “I would just hope that we just put those conspiracy stuff — and let somebody write a book about it later on, but not now,” he continued.

          https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-08-20/h_ee382d64c5aeab6ce7407913435b574e

          You’ve fallen for yet another fraudster, just like you did with that silly Laura Ingraham quack.

          1. Bruce Hall

            2slug, if you believe the state senator’s remarks about attribution of death were baseless despite him reading from a directive, then I fear you don’t have a solid definition of baseless. Perhaps the directive itself was without merit, but that doesn’t mean that it was baseless with regard to how deaths are then attributed.

            Regardless, there seems to be a deep disdain from commenters in this forum for any effort that is outside a very conservative approach which is ironic because liberals are usually the first to jump onto new possibilities or ideas. All of the arguments I’ve been reading here are essentially that the government isn’t doing enough, but we shouldn’t be trying anything that shows promise without extensive, time-consuming, testing despite the fact that people are dying and might have a chance of living with off-label application of well-known medications. That’s would be a deep disconnect from the woke crowd, but perfectly understandable when placed in a vitriolic, anti-Trump context.

            Fauci didn’t say, “Don’t use those medications.” He simply took a very conservative position that without clinical trials, there was no certainty about if they worked, how they worked, and when they worked best. Yet the medical profession, in general, is less concerned about certainty than the possibility they could save lives. https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/medical-group-backs-giving-hydroxychloroquine-to-coronavirus-patients/

            Like Trump, Cuomo said Monday giving sick COVID patients doses of hydroxychloroquine is a worthy experiment to try to save lives.

            “There has been anecdotal evidence that it is promising, that’s why we’re going ahead, doctors have to prescribe it. There are some people who have pre-existing conditions where it doesn’t work, or they’re taking medication that’s not consistent with this treatment, but anecdotally it’s been positive,” the governor said during a press briefing in Albany.

            He said studies will ultimately determine the drug’s efficacy.

            A top doctor with the city’s public hospital system agreed.
            *************

            That’s all folks.

          2. pgl

            Now remember Dr. Deborah Birx and Dr. Anthony Fauci are part of the deep state working for Joe Biden. Wait for it – because this will be the new theme from the MAGA hats.

          3. 2slugbaits

            Bruce Hall All of the arguments I’ve been reading here are essentially that the government isn’t doing enough, but we shouldn’t be trying anything that shows promise without extensive, time-consuming, testing despite the fact that people are dying and might have a chance of living with off-label application of well-known medications.

            If that’s what you think, then you’ve been out to lunch. You simply have not understood anyone’s arguments. Let me repeat this for the umpteenth time…no one is against trying various therapies that have shown some promise in laboratory environments. But trying those therapies should be done in a controlled way. Doctors aren’t just worried about the immediate patient, they are also concerned with identifying ineffective therapies for the sake of future patients. That means setting up sound test plans. It’s not the case that there’s only an upside to taking hydroxychloroquine, with the worst case being that it doesn’t work. If that’s how you understand things, then you’re way off base. Of all the experimental therapies currently be tried, hydroxychloroquine is probably the least promising. There’s an opportunity cost of giving someone an ineffective drug if other more effective drugs are available. But you don’t know which drugs are most effective unless you do clinical trials. You seem to be advocating a kind of shoot-from-the-hip approach the medical science.

            As to your Minnesota doctor/senator, apparently he has a reading comprehension problem. The directive says no such thing. Here, you can read it for yourself.
            https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

        3. pgl

          “Since hydroxychloroquine has shown positive results in admittedly sporadic small trials, are you suggesting that the empirical evidence be ignored so that long-term clinical trials can be completed.”

          A few trials on lab rats is not proof that this treatment works no matter how many times you and Trump basically lie about its efficacy. Until we see phase III trials it is highly irresponsible to tout this as a miracle cure. But you and Trump go on and on with these dishonest and dangerous lies. Go figure!

      2. pgl

        “You parroted the Fox Noise lie about Trump imposing a travel ban and how Democrats opposed him.”

        Kevin Drum posted on this nonsense noting the airlines had already started restricting travel from China before Trump did a damn thing. So Trump is taking credit for something the private sector – not him – did. Trump has been a follower not a leader in every single aspect of this crisis.

    5. noneconomist

      Gee, Bruce maybe Pelosi, in February –like you– believed Trump when he said. (1/22) “We have it totally under control” and (2/10) “looks like by April…it miraculously goes away, and (2/24) “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA…” and (2/28) “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear”, et. al.
      Worth noting too: there are about 190,000 “Chinese” living in San Francisco, many who are citizens and many whose family roots here go back generations. And, as Dr. Rosser notes, your timeline is, shall we say, faulty anyway.
      Your “political correctness” argument is?

      1. pgl

        Check out

        Bruce Hall
        April 8, 2020 at 4:12 pm

        This idiot actually wrote as late as then that this virus is far more controlled. And I get these sense he is only counting white people as those who have traveled here from China after Trump’s travel bans. After all – the virus could not get here if the traveler was Chinese. WTF – I guess that undermines Trump calling it the Chinese virus!

    6. pgl

      “All deaths are attributed to the Covid-19 virus if the virus is present including elderly people with serious underlying health problems”.

      OK I decided to re-read to see the most insulting bald faced lies. This one is high on the list. I have no clue where you got this lie but tell that to the 779 NYC residents who died yesterday. Tell that to the parent of the 7 week old child who died this week. Hey Bruce – do you want to know where these people are being buried so you can go wee on their graves?

    7. pgl

      “A ventilator can help patients unable to breathe on their own, but the experience of COVID-19 patients has been sobering for doctors.”

      Let’s unpack this. Bruce Hall dismisses the need for ventilators as they do not necessarily mean the patient will survive. Some do recovery some do not. But without a ventilator all of these patients would die. Which of course was one of Bruce’s early recommendation – have old people just die. After all – they might vote for Biden and they might want Social Security benefits if these needless people in Bruce’s worldview just passed away.

      1. Bruce Hall

        Let’s further “unpack” this. The demand for ventilators which has been shown to be only marginally of value has diverted significant effort and resources from other possible treatments.

        Okay, I wrote that just to get a rise out of you. The real point is that because I reference an NPR article dismissing the effectiveness of ventilators for critically ill patients with Covid-19 doesn’t mean I’m saying they should not be used in an effort, even if generally futile, to save patients. You, on the other hand, have been more than willing to dismiss off-label use of medications that might save lives. There’s a big difference.

        I’m willing to say try anything that might have a chance of saving a dying patient, even if it is only marginally effective. You say, don’t try off-label medications without full clinical trials even if empirical evidence indicates those medications may save some people.

        Who’s the “progressive” here?

        1. 2slugbaits

          Bruce Hall Huh? You’re confused. There is no evidence that hydroxychloroquine is even marginally effective. Apparently you do not understand the difference between a treatment being marginal versus statistically significantly different from zero. Ventilators provide a marginal but statistically significant difference in outcomes. There is no evidence that hydroxychloroquine provide statistically significant benefits. That’s why we do clinical trials. That’s how we decide whether patient recoveries were due to a specific treatment or just randomness. This blog uses a lot of statistical and econometric terms. You should learn what they mean.

          1. Bruce Hall

            … and yet there are too many “anecdotal” instances of people recovering from what appears to be a hopeless condition after receiving hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to be ignored.

            When there are no data other than died/not died, then statistics are not much help in determining a course of treatment. So, then we begin to rely on experience, intuition, and experimentation while looking for very preliminary signs of a positive nature.

            As long as you don’t become seriously ill with a disease, it is a very academic exercise to argue that we should all wait for extensive clinical testing before determining a course of action. If ventilators can save some lives, however marginally effective, then why the resistance to accepting that these medications may save some lives which appears to have been the case observed by medical professionals? Why? Perhaps because there is a man named Donald Trump involved in the recommendation.

          2. 2slugbaits

            Bruce Hall When there are no data other than died/not died, then statistics are not much help in determining a course of treatment. So, then we begin to rely on experience, intuition, and experimentation while looking for very preliminary signs of a positive nature.

            You still don’t get it. The point of clinical trials is to accumulate data! Experience is useless if you have no past experience with a new virus. Intuition is subjective, dangerous and generally wrong. Experimentation is another term for clinical trials. And you NEVER look for “preliminary signs of a positive nature” because that contaminates your clinical trial.

            why the resistance to accepting that these medications may save some lives which appears to have been the case observed by medical professionals? Why? Perhaps because there is a man named Donald Trump involved in the recommendation.

            No one is against following what medical professionals are saying, except for Donald Trump who cuts off his chief expert and won’t let him answer a question about the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine. Donald Trump is not a medical professional. Sean Hannity is not a medical professional. Laura Ingraham is not a medical professional. The hosts on Fox & Friends are not medical professionals. Quack guests on Fox Noise are not medical professionals. Anecdotal observations and hunches by some doctors are not data. You’ve become emotionally attached in the belief that hydroxychloroquine is an effective therapy. You need to learn how to be agnostic on these kinds of things until clinical trials can report results.

          3. pgl

            “When there are no data other than died/not died, then statistics are not much help in determining a course of treatment. So, then we begin to rely on experience, intuition, and experimentation while looking for very preliminary signs of a positive nature.”

            Bruce Hall really is a stupid person. He actually writes something that admits we do not have actual data on the benefits of the very treatment he keeps claiming is some magic bullet? Intuition? Lord – do not let the mental midget anywhere near a biopharma lab as he might just blow the place up.

        2. pgl

          NO ONE said ventilators alone would save people. But diverting resources? Lord – you do write the dumbest things!

  7. Moses Herzog

    BTW, if you’re looking at the ratio of death to documented cases of COVID-19, Oklahoma is now 2nd place to only one other state in the entire nation: Mitch McConnell’s Kentucky. Oklahoma has a 5.2% death rate vs Kentucky’s 5.7% death rate.
    https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com

    Now, even if you adjust the denominator in the ratio from “documented cases” to “per 100,000 people”, Oklahoma has the 16th highest rate of deaths of the 50 states:
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Oklahoma had 16 deaths yesterday, 12 today, and it’s up to a grand total of 79 deaths of the ones documented. There is already one mother here who thinks there’s a high chance her son died from COVID-19 and the state Medical Examiner’s Office is denying her the ability to have the body tested to verify if it was COVID-19.
    https://kfor.com/health/coronavirus/local-family-grieving-sudden-death-of-young-son-now-begging-for-a-covid-19-test-to-bring-answers/

    I guess they just don’t have the money for the cost of her dead son’s test when Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt is paying his crony Joshua Harlow $150-per-hour to do NOTHING .

  8. baffling

    bruce hall has valiantly tried to rewrite history and excuse his position. but let us be clear, bruce declared this was nothing more than a flu-even when data shows an order of magnitude worse death rate. and he still maintains the position that we have had “what appears to be an overreaction by state and federal governments.” bruce hall and devin nunes are one and the same, encouraging folks to party during an epidemic because “things can’t be all that bad”.
    well bruce hall, i once again call on you from refraining from seeking medical services should you be infected with this virus. we have heroes on the front line saving people, and i really do not want them risking their lives for you. let them help those who did not disregard the severity of the risk, for political posturing, like you did.
    finally, we get the expected “The number was recently updated from ~81,000 deaths to ~60,000 deaths. That’s comparable to a serious flu season such as the one we’re currently experiencing”. well bruce, that has ONLY occurred because most of the nation has disregarded the trump approach and embarked upon social distancing and other levels of prevention we have never seen before. Bruce, here is a simple math assignment for you to carry out-i think you may still be capable of completing this assignment. Herd immunity occurs with our Ro of slightly over 2 at around 60% of the population exposed to the virus. Now take that number and use a low estimate of 1% death rate, and you get the number of dead as a result of this epidemic, probably occurring within a one year time frame. That is your death toll following the advice you and trump proposed not long ago. and 20% of those infected are hospitalized, with half of them requiring icu treatment. do you really think we would be better off economically with such an event unfolding? do you really want to impose that on our medical professionals? seriously, you really think we are better off? are you off the rails nuts? or simply a psycho political hack?

    1. pgl

      I think Bruce Hall provides a valuable service. A lot of us have accused Donald Trump to be the dumbest person ever. We are wrong. Bruce Hall is clearly the dumbest person ever.

      1. Niemand

        Gonna be contrary here- don’t think Bruce Hall is stupid- he’s apparently quite bright. My opinion is that, for reasons unknown, Bruce latched onto Trump as being someone who would actually “make America great again.” (Whatever that means to Bruce.) Trump became Bruce’s symbol of hope for America. (Disclaimer: My opinion and $5 will get you a coffee, provided that your favorite coffee shop is still open.)
        In the last three years, peaking at the current crisis, it has become glaringly obvious that Trump is a bumbling, brutal, clueless conman, completely unqualified to be president, and totally incapable of governing. Bruce’s idol has not only feet, but a head of clay, but Bruce cannot admit this even to himself. Doing so would be to admit that not only was Trump NOT God’s gift to humanity, but that he (Bruce) had been snookered, which would be devastating to his self-image.
        Consequently, Bruce constantly uses his considerable intellect to twist facts, and insinuate alternate facts, into his arguments, in an attempt to claim that Trump is not quite as bad as he looks. Unfortunately for Bruce, 1) Trump IS as bad as he looks, and 2) Bruce is trying to validate Trump on a blog read by people who are as smart, or much smarter, than Bruce is.
        Bruce is regularly (and viciously) slammed for his transparent sophistry, but keeps coming back for more abuse- he can’t help himself- admitting he has been duped would destroy him.
        But he isn’t a moron- just a cultist under extreme pressure. (Actually kinda of sorry for him). -Well… OK, not sorry.

        1. Willie

          It was not the last three years that proved the orange guppy’s utter incompetence. He went bust in the 1980s, playing with house money. Going broke running a casino takes negative talent of a spectacular sort. He is not competent, never has been, and never will be. He has always been a petulant four year old with a big mouth.

          How people like Bruce Hall got sucked in is beyond me. Unless they put tribal loyalty ahead of all else.

    2. 2slugbaits

      baffling Bruce is simply unable to understand my simple “if you do X, then Y” exercise. He’s demonstrated on more than one occasion that he is unable to engage in counterfactual thinking. He seems to believe that it was always possible to avoid economic pain if society was willing to carry on as though the pandemic was nothing worse than a bad case of the flu. Bruce was offering a false alternative. The economic consequences of not temporarily shutting down parts of the economy would have been far worse than the economic costs we’ll actually suffer as a result of doing the right thing. Bruce and Trump both believe in tooth fairy economics.

  9. Not Trampis

    There will be no strong recovery. Supply chain problems have not gone away. Savings have to be built up again. People need to have confidence they can resume ‘normal’ behaviour just for starters.

  10. Paul Mathis

    Actually, I think Trump is hoping it is a silver bullet that will stop the pandemic and therefore get him re-elected. It probably is his only hope now.

    1. pgl

      “Publisher of hydroxychloroquine study touted by Trump says the research didn’t meet its standards”. That is the standards of actual scientists. Remember they are all deep state Democrats. The only standard that matters to Bruce is will it give the thumbs up from Donald J. Trump.

    2. baffling

      bruce, i would really like to hear your response. your anecdotal “study” excluded patients who did not respond to the drug, or who died. do we still use this to promote your wonder drug? or should this be ignored as well? or is it time to reconsider your recommendation?

      1. pgl

        That would explain a reported low failure rate. Just ignore the many failures. Sort of like how Trump reports everything!

  11. baffling

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/degette-gardner-trump-ventilators-favor/index.html
    and just as expected, trump is using ventilators as political capital. the mega way, dick striker and bruce hall! funny how comrade kushner said the states should have developed their own stockpile, and then he permits fema to swoop in and take away state purchased ventilators so that they can be used by trump as political capital in the future. now we know what kusher meant by “our” stockpile-he was not lying. “our stockpile” means “trump stockpile” to be distributed as he sees fit. you also now understand why trump got rid of the inspector general, who’s job it was to catch this nefarious behavior. unbelievable.

    1. pgl

      “Rep. Diana DeGette, a veteran Democrat, said that President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would send 100 ventilators to Colorado smacks of a political favor to vulnerable GOP Sen. Cory Gardner after the federal government had not fulfilled the delegation’s request for the devices.”

      Get used to this. Trump has decided that $2 trillion relief package for American workers and small businesses should be his own little piggy bank to abuse with no oversight whatsoever. This is why he fired the Inspector General.

      1. Moses Herzog

        I guess after you fire the coronavirus IG it makes passing out ventilators to whichever governor just stroked your ego in the last 10 minutes much easier. Another proud moment for Republicans—Republicans give ventilators to save human lives based on how good you can lick a Republican’s anu$. Keep in mind Republicans were the ones making up stories about “Death Panels” when President Obama was in office. What do you call it when a White House administration decides WHICH state’s residents can live or not based on if the Governor gives the orange creature a full-body oil massage?? That’s not a death panel??

        It’s the Christian thing to do— “Here, want some oxygen to live?? Wait, not yet. Before I give you this oxygen supply to keep you alive another 12 hours, tell me how big my schlong looks to you, then we’ll talk whether you get to live or not.”

  12. Baffling

    Bruce, your silence is deafening. Hope you continue the habit into the future, rather than promote the falsehoods i just identified.

  13. Moses Herzog

    Thought this was worthy of adding to the thread discussion:
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/former-fda-leaders-decry-emergency-authorization-malaria-drugs-coronavirus

    I still think this treatment is being overlooked by the science and medical community:
    https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/long-island-doctor-tries-new-hydroxychloroquine-for-covid-19-patients/

    There was no “placebo”. used here, and there’s enough REAL/severe/elderly patients to call it a legitimate study. In essence you might as well double the number of patients involved/quoted in the study. Why?? It sounds ridiculous?? I dare you to tell me your “negative” or “control group” there would not have been a large pile of dead patients, when ALL the ones involved were elderly people in a nursing home. You’re not going to have “psychological processes” (placebo effect) involved in a treatment when your alveoli in your lungs is breaking down physiologically—no workings of the mind are going to “save” your alveoli. An “interim” or “provisional” treatment is here for Doctors who want to USE it for the next 18 months until there is a vaccine.

Comments are closed.