No V Recovery: & IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook Survey Series

From IGM:

The IGM is administering this new survey on the outlook for the economy in collaboration with The FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey complements the existing IGM expert panels and is being overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright. The list of experts answering the questions is identified in the post along with the responses.

The entire survey responses are summarized here. Here is the characterization of the recovery by the respondents:

Source: FiveThirtyEight and IGM, 25 May 2020.

A “V” it is not, consistent with WSJ May survey, and contra Kudlow et al.

23 thoughts on “No V Recovery: & IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook Survey Series

  1. pgl

    “Question 3: When do you expect real GDP to have caught up to its pre-crisis level (Q4 2019)? Assign a probability to each half representing the likelihood that GDP will catch up to its pre-crisis level in that half.”

    A lot of them said the 2nd half of 2022? Oh no – another round of Trump twitter tantrums!

  2. pgl

    More bad news for Bruce Hall’s snake oil business:

    ‘the World Health Organization announced it had temporarily halted its global trial of the drug, citing a new study that found a significantly higher risk of death among those taking hydroxychloroquine or the closely related drug chloroquine. “The Executive Group has implemented a temporary pause of the hydroxychloroquine arm within the Solidarity Trial while the safety data is reviewed by the Data Safety Monitoring Board,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO’s director general, said in a briefing.’

    Wait, wait – Trump and Bruce Hall told us this treatment was safe and FDA approved. Of course it was not FDA approved for treating COVID-19 as there is no evidence that it helps. And now we know it is not safe either.

    1. Barkley Rosser


      Now now, you show your bias by taking seriously anything coming out of the WHO. Has not our fearless leader made it clear it deserves no money from the US because it is controlled by China? Tsk tsk.

    2. macroduck

      I understood why Trump would grasp at anything, knowing that his base is eager for words – Facts? Trump hater! – words to say to talk about how great Trump is. He gave them a word that seemed long and sciencey. Job done.

      Bruce, to me, seems more of a mystery. He’s not THAT dumb. He surely didn’t believe that hydroxymagicloriquine would have beneficial effects against the Covid virus. He was just being a good boot=licker. But this time, it has to be counterproductive. The evidence against this magic elixir is overwhelming and the stench of backing Trump on this one has to hurt Bruce’s ability to be useful as a boot-licker in the future. This is just the wrong dunghill to die on.

      1. pgl

        “He’s not THAT dumb.” Are you sure about that?

        OK maybe he is not as dumb as comes across. After all – it would be like Bruce to flat out lie. He often lies even about what his own links report.

  3. Willie

    What about a swoosh/W? That would be a tepid recovery for the summer, followed by another sharp decline and long, tepid recovery if there’s a COVID relapse in the fall. I sure hope that doesn’t happen. It seems like a realistic scenario.

  4. pgl

    Mitch Mulvaney just told us that more people die from the flu than from COVID-19 so hey – open the economy. Of course, Mulvaney is lying. He claims that 100 thousand of people die each year from the flu. Actually the worst year ever was a couple of years ago when 61 thousand people died in a 12 month period. Now we have reached 100 thousand COVID-19 deaths but that took only 3 months.

    Remember this more accurate framing of the deaths per month as Mulvaney’s lie will be Faux News talking points tonight.

    1. not

      Comparing the not-very-contagious influenzas with an extremely contagious virus is contemptible.

  5. joseph

    What do you mean “No V recovery.” It’s all happening!

    Donald Trump on January 4, 2018: “DOW just crashes through 25,000. Congrats! ”
    Donald Trump on July 14, 2018: “The Stock Market hit 25,000 yesterday. It is all happening!”
    Donald Trump on January 30, 2019: “DOW just broke 25,000. Tremendous news!”
    Donald Trump on May 26, 2020: “Stock Market up BIG, DOW crosses 25,000.”

    It’s Groundhog Day!

    1. pgl

      The DOW Jones since Dec. 2017 paints a picture of volatility but the nominal change over the entire period is next to zero:

      Kevin Hassett co-authored DOW 36000 back in 1999. He claimed the DOW would hit 36000 very soon. Hey Kevin – how did that forecast turn out?

    2. The Rage

      Wait until the 3rd quarter sell off happens. Retail buyers have generally kept stocks inflated beyond where they should be…..That is a very bad sign.

  6. baffling

    my feeling is the w behavior will only occur with a second wave. although for it to be a true w, the second wave must be followed shortly by either a vaccine or effective therapeutic. otherwise a second wave without a therapeutic will result in a lightning bolt \/\ down. judging by the number of idiots i saw out unprotected this weekend, a second wave will be almost assured this summer/fall.
    looks like texas wants to take the republican convention away from nc. however, no major city in the state is interested in hosting the event. apparently the rnc will have to transport all the needed hookers out to someplace like lubbock to hold the affair. the republican’s will hold their own version of burning man in west texas!

  7. pgl

    If Bruce Hall is off to France to peddle hydroxychloroquine – this is going to cut into his business:

    The French government has stopped the use of malaria drug hydroxychloroquine for treating COVID-19 patients after a study suggested it doesn’t work and poses health risks. A decree ending its use for the coronavirus in France was published Wednesday. The World Health Organization did the same after a study of 100,000 patients worldwide published last week found the drug was ineffective against the virus and tied to a greater risk of death and heart rhythm problems.

    1. baffling

      see how trump complicates the world. in addition to needing to fight off the coronavirus, the good people of the world have needed to spend resources dealing with the quackery of hydroxychloroquine over the past two months. trump just continues to create problems for others to fix. this is his mode of operation. currently we have his attacks on the who, and now a renewed attack on china and trade. always somebody else is left to clean up the crap donald creates.

  8. pgl

    NBER Working Paper 27237

    We test for and measure the effects of cable news in the US on regional differences in compliance with recommendations by health experts to practice social distancing during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a quasi-experimental design to estimate the causal effect of Fox News viewership on stay-at-home behavior by using only the incremental local viewership due to the quasi-random assignment of channel positions in a local cable line-up. The average partial effect of Fox News viewership in a zipcode implies that 1 percentage point increase in cable viewership reduces the propensity to stay at home by 8.9 percentage points compared to the prepandemic average. We find a persuasion rate of Fox News on non-compliance with stay-at-home behavior during the crisis of about 33.5%-50%across our various social distancing metrics.

    1. 2slugbaits

      Trump also believes that the human body is born with a finite amount of energy, much like a battery. And that theory informs his avoidance of exercise. Trump believes that the more you exercise the more of that finite amount of energy gets consumed and that you die when your battery runs down. I’m not kidding.

      “After college, after Trump mostly gave up his personal athletic interests, he came to view time spent playing sports as time wasted. Trump believed the human body was like a battery, with a finite amount of energy, which exercise only depleted. So he didn’t work out. When he learned that John O’Donnell, one of his top casino executives, was training for an Ironman triathlon, he admonished him, ‘You are going to die young because of this.'”

      The quote is from the book “Trump Revealed” and cited in this CNN story:

      So why are we surprised by Trump’s comments on health and medicine? Maybe he thinks we should go back to Galen’s theories of the bodily humors? What a loser.

      1. baffling

        maybe this drives trumps hatred for the poor and unemployed? in his view, they are not actively burning their batteries out, so they will simply stay on the welfare dole longer. if he can get them out and working, they will die sooner and be less of a drag on government welfare plans. he spends less on entitlement and reduces the number of poor people in the world, a double win for him.

    1. Douglas R Pederson

      That’s Kernen and Sorkin. Couldn’t happen to nice guy that Kernen who is an arrogant twit.

      1. baffling

        yes i meant kernen. apple has a rather annoying spell check these days. but i was not referring to sorkin, who i like. santelli is also a joke of an old white entitled guy. i applaud sorkin for calling kernen on his behavior. leisman may be the best of the bunch on the site. i rarely watch the channel anymore. their web site is ok, but the channel has spawned too many wannabe conservatives over the years…

    2. macroduck

      CNBC is Faux News with a stock ticker. Ailes ran CNBC from 1993 to 1995 and it shows. (Ailes left when one of his projects was rebranded as MSNBC. Heh.) Hiring Kudlow and keeping Santelli after his dog-whistle racist opposition to mortgage relief during the Great Recession were meant to signal that CNBC was not just about financial markets. At CNBC’s core is a culture-of-greed message. Kernen fell in line and over the years has become a true convert. There is write-in movement to have him fired for being so terrible, but I’ve got five bucks that says he’ll stay because his sort of bad behavior is what market bros love about CNBC.

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