Geographical Distribution of April Growth – Philadelphia Fed Indexes

From the Philadelphia Fed Coincident Index release today:

Figure 1: April Month-on-month percent decline in Philadelphia Fed coincident index, not annualized, %. Darker denotes larger declines. Source: Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.

The variation relative to the overall nationwide decline is interesting; Southern states are (for now) experiencing a less pronounced decline.

Figure 1: April Month-on-month percent decline in Philadelphia Fed coincident index relative to US, not annualized, %. Darker denotes larger declines. Source: Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.

45 thoughts on “Geographical Distribution of April Growth – Philadelphia Fed Indexes

  1. Barkley Rosser

    I am surprised that major oil producing states do not seem to be hit harder than they appear to be, given the complete collapse of oil prices in April. They are back rising again, or were prior to today anyway. But certainly the reports out of the oil patch in Texas at least have been dire, but not showing up here, and there are several other states more vulnerable, e.g. ND, OK, LA, AK, but none of them being among the harder hit.

    1. Willie

      That was April. Even a wrecking train takes a while to stop. I suspect that May will be significantly uglier for the oil patch.

      1. baffling

        the oil patch in texas really does not understand how to respond. the majors have not been laying off tremendous amounts. however, they stopped much of their outsourced projects back in march. those smaller companies will not lay off until they absolutely have to, so through april they kept folks on the roll. however, as june and july runs through, i imagine those smaller firms will start to lay people off if they think oil stays low. it may be recovering enough to keep people on payroll, but i think we will see furloughs and payouts coming out of the oil patch this summer. they learned a lesson during the last slowdown, after cutting all the workers, it was VERY difficult to bring them back when oil picked up. so they might try furloughs and pay cuts rather than simply releasing the workers. the oil patch is still paying judging by all of the pickup trucks in the local hooters restaurant.

    2. macroduck

      Perhaps you are surprised because you haven’t really bothered to think about what’s going on in those state economies. Yes, the oil sector is large in the states you’ve named, but it’s soft-headed to think of them as monolithic. States with denser populations have been hit harder that more rural states. Texas has several very large urban centers, but government and social responses to the pandemic have been limited, so that commerce has been less affected. Several of those states have been slow to act to contain the virus and public attitudes in some seem less inclined toward self-imposed distancing. There is more to the economy than oil. Suggesting otherwise is pretty silly.

      1. Barkley Rosser


        Are you actually Moses Herzog now using another moniker? You seem to be as stupidly obsessed over nothing as he has long been.

        1. macroduck

          Regular readers of this blog will not need an explanation of the frequent ugly exchanges involving Barkley Rosser on this blog. Those less familiar with what happens here may benefit from a warning label. This is my modest attempt to proivide that warning.

          Barkley is extremely sensitive to any preceived slight to his intellectual pretensions. He has long been vie toward another commenter here, the Moses Herzog mentioned above. Contrary to Barkley’s suggestion, I am not Moses.

          It is, however, just like Barkley to suggest that I am. He will intentionally misconstrue others’ comments in order to criticise those comments. He will attribute views to others and then attack those views. He traffics in insults (“stupidly obsessed”). If you are familiar with the tricks of rightwing radio shock-jocks and internet trolls, then you know what to expect from Barkley. In fact, Barkley is a pretty good caricature of the nasty faculty meeting in-fighter that is a staple of novels set on college campuses.

          The typical goal of vile behavior such as Barkley’s is to silence opponents. Then, he can preen himself in public here to his own satisfaction, without the risk that his preening will be interrupted. I am unwilling to be silenced by a small minded bully likt Barkley, so I have taken to fighting fire with fire. I will treat stupidly obsessed Barkley as he treats others.

          Afer all, “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

          1. Barkley Rosser

            Sorry, Moses, this is you, although both of these names are apparentlyfakes. This is utterly vacuous ranting and raving while wrong. We get it that you have decided to retire your other ID since Menzie shut you down on smearing Nancy Pelosi. But you just cannot resist our obsession with denouncing me, something nobody else here has ever remotely shared an interest in with you, except briefly CoRev.

            This stuff is more unhinged than your previous denunciations. Has Staying in Place gotten to you that bad? Maybe your mom can give you some apple pie.

          2. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Barkley Rosser: To the best of my knowledge, Moses Herzog and macroduck are not the same individual, as they have come in under (fairly consistently) different IP addresses.

          3. Barkley Rosser

            Fair enough, Menzie. I withdraw my claim. Moses can be congratulated for having acquired at least one fan ans strong advocate, alhough his advocate seems inclined to imitate some of his not so good habits, such as making blatantly false statements about me.

  2. Bruce Hall

    No surprise to us in Michigan as Queen Whitmer continues to make shambles of the state’s economy while breaking her own “orders”. She and her husband obviously don’t take her “for your own good” propaganda very seriously themselves as they traveled to Traverse City and partied over the Memorial Day holiday. Now, despite the fact residents are starting to give her the old middle finger, businesses are still crippled and dying. So, watch for more “Michigan the outlier” over the next several months.

    The one hope is that Michigan’s manufacturing will start up very soon and pull the rest of Michigan’s economy up with it. I know; I know… that sounds so nationalistic.

    Meanwhile, deaths in Michigan’s nursing homes from Covid-19 have enabled Whitmer to justify her knee on the neck of Michigan’s economy.
    The Department of Health and Human Services gave Local 4 more insight into its regional hub system. There are now 21 of them. The state is paying these homes $5,000 per COVID-19 positive case they take.

    We also learned that there are some nursing homes taking these patients that do not have the same strict separation policies that regional hubs are required to have. Only about half of the state’s nursing homes have been inspected since the policy went into effect last month.

    Pssst! It’s all Trump’s fault. Pass it on.

      1. pgl

        I’m glad I stopped reading after his first disgusting line. And we thought Trump has gone off the rails.

      2. Bruce Hall

        The “Knee on the neck” comment seems quite unnecessary.

        Tell it to Michigan small businesses.

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Bruce Hall: Well, I’ll refer to the people instead of business owners (who after all are only a portion of the populace; why not just poll non-minority multi-millionaires?). Then: “A poll released this week by the Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce found that 64% of Michigan voters surveyed support her handling of the crisis, compared to 33% who did not.” From Detroit Free Press, 5/22.

          1. pgl

            Menzie – don’t you know that we are supposed to count people wearing MAGA hats in these polls?

    1. pgl

      No surprise to us in Michigan as Queen Whitmer continues to make shambles of the state’s economy while breaking her own “orders”.

      What a disgustingly dishonest comment. Did you just cut and paste this garbage from the Trump twitter tantrums? Hey Brucie – we know you are a Trump stooge. We know you are beyond stupid. And we know you lie 24/7. But acting like a deranged little child too? No need to read the rest of your worthless garbage. Life is too short.

        1. pgl

          You must have been staring at the mirror talking to yourself. After all – you never get past the damn headline from your own links!

        2. Willie

          And, like the typical right wing snowflake, you want a participation trophy no matter how wrong you are. Stuff the pacifier back in and quit whining. Or go get a job in a meat packing plant and take your chances.

          You are another reactionary wingnut who is a Mammon worshipper and justifies suffering if it leads to profits for the exalted class.

    2. 2slugbaits

      Bruce Hall Once again you’ve botched the story. The sad tale of a senile old man who can’t get anything right. Traverse City was opened a week before the Memorial Day weekend for the exact reason that you had been demanding. Traverse City had a very low infection rate and was one of the areas that Whitmer opened up. There was no Whitmer party over the weekend. It was a fake story being pushed by a Republican state legislator. Instead of getting your misinformation from Russian troll sites, why not try getting the actual story? For example:

      Why do you think opening up manufacturing will get the Michigan economy up and running? If unemployment is in double-digits and people are nervous about their jobs, why would they decide to spend $40K on some gas guzzling F-150? Just because you build it doesn’t mean they will come.

      Pssst! It’s all Trump’s fault.

      Does Trump support the House bill to assist the state and local governments with the costs of COVID-19? Apparently not. That is his fault.

        1. baffling

          what is wrong with wearing a mask and social distancing, bruce? you can successfully reopen your economy if you do those things. bruce is probably one of the people still complaining that he had to wear a seatbelt in the car.

          if more people would effectively social distance and wear a mask, the economy could restart much quicker. why must you insist on reopening without protecting your fellow americans, bruce?

          1. pgl

            Trump actually criticized Biden for not wearing a mask when Biden is inside his home. No Trump goes maskless when he is outside in a crowded area and he actually thinks that is a good idea. Hey Bruce Hall has to imitate Trump in every way so it is no wonder he is so incredibly STUPID!

          2. 2slugbaits

            baffling Bruce Hall is just is proving to be the same petulant toddler as Trump. He’s a social menace. And he doesn’t have a clue about behavioral economics. He believes that just because he’s stupid enough to ignore the threat and pretend it’s just the flu, that everyone else is just as stupid. That might be because he lives in the Fox News bubble and assumes everyone is as dumb as the hosts on Fox & Friends. People are going to be very reluctant to socially interact until there is either a vaccine or a reliable therapeutic. The economic task should not be to try and open up as though there’s no ongoing pandemic, but rather the objective should be keeping labor and capital intact for when it is safe to reopen. That means keeping people on the payroll even if they aren’t physically at work. It means keeping people in their homes and not evicting them onto the streets. It means Congress writing big checks to keep state and local government functions afloat. What it does not mean is making sure Bruce Hall is able to buy thick ribeye steaks at the expense of killing poor workers in meat packing plants. Let Bruce Hall eat some of that excess soy instead.

        2. 2slugbaits

          Bruce Hall Not only are you senile, but you’re proving yourself to be every bit as self-centered as your master, Donald J. Trump. Do you understand that the reason you should wear a mask is to minimize the risk of infecting someone else? Other people go to the bother of wearing masks in order to protect you. Did it ever occur to you that you should extend the same courtesy to others? Didn’t your mother ever teach you the basics of common courtesy? Were you born in a barn? If the only reason for wearing a mask was to protect yourself, then no one would give a damn whether you wore one or not. You wouldn’t be missed. You wear masks because you might be infected without your knowing about it, and that could infect and even kill someone else who is entirely innocent. Anyone who doesn’t wear a mask and causes someone else to become infected should be held civilly and criminally liable. That means you pay all of the medical costs. And if the person dies, then you go to jail for negligent homicide. There’s really no difference between someone not wearing a mask in public and some drunk on the road.

        3. pgl

          Executive Order 2020-97 is well thought out. Too bad we only get cartoon drawings from the Trump White House.

      1. pgl

        “Why do you think”. Can we stop right here? Have you not figured it out by now? Bruce Hall never thinks. He just parrots the talking points fed to him by the White House.

    3. pgl

      You have told over and over another disgusting lie – the premise that Gov. Cuomo ordered a bad policy of supposedly letting elderly with COVID-19 live with elderly people without this virus. It strikes me that Michigan had an implementation issue here:

      ‘The Department of Health and Human Services gave Local 4 more insight into its regional hub system. There are now 21 of them. The state is paying these homes $5,000 per COVID-19 positive case they take. We also learned that there are some nursing homes taking these patients that do not have the same strict separation policies that regional hubs are required to have. Only about half of the state’s nursing homes have been inspected since the policy went into effect last month.’

      Cuomo has noted many times that the policy of New York is to have strict separation policies. Of course Bruce Hall never admits this. Is he too stupid to even get the point? Or does he choose to lie to us like he always does?

      Yes as I have noted many times, the health care system of my city got overwhelmed because Trump ignored this virus until it was too late. And we followed the incomplete advice from the Federal government until we realized it was designed by Trump’s stooges. So we went for a better implementation of sound policy. Now it would help if these nurse homes had better testing but once again the Trump White House dropped the ball on this too.

      Of course Bruce Hall would be happy if we had just tossed our sick elderly in the Hudson River. After all – the only thing that matters to disgusting little liars lie Bruce is shift the blame away from Trump so matter how many lies he has to repeat over and over.

    4. Barkley Rosser


      As of May 13, 72% of people in Michigan approved of Gov. Whitmer’s handling of the pandemic. Also, Biden is leading Trump by a substantial margin in the state.

      Do you happen to approve of the Michigan anti-lockdown protestors who showed up in Lansing with guns, camouflage, swastiksa, nooses, Confederate flags, were screaming maskless up close in the faces of police, parading around the building with their guns, and then, to top it all off, sending each other messages about killing Gov. Whitmer? Do you have anything to say about that?

      That you do not and focus on nonsense like the blown-up Traverse City non-story is why you do not get why she is so popular and Trump will get clobbered in Michigan, even if he manages to squeak out a win by taking PA or WI or somewhere else in November.

    5. macroduck

      Brucey strikes again! Whatever Whitmer’s husband may have said about being the First Man, it has nothing to do with Michigan’s economy. You claim that Whitmer is the problem with the economy, but then engage in a hack-attack where, in an honest argument, one would expect evidence. You and Barkley need to stop this sort of thing. You’re just embarrassing yourselves.

      If you were making an honest argument, which I realize is not the business of paid trolls such as you, you’d have offered evidence of the progression of infections in the state. Michigan had a rapid onset of infections but has “flattened the curve”, as the saying goes. That rapid onset is very likely a factor in slowing Michigan’s economy. If we look at neighboring states, we find that Minnesota and Wisconsin had a slower onset but still have a fairly rapid rate of new infection, Illinois had a rapid onset and is not doing very well in flattening the curve.

      The reality, which neither you nor Barkley seem to care much about, is that Michigan is making real progress in caring for its citizens, which is reason to expect better economic performance, relative to neighboring state.

      But as a paid troll, you probably don’t care about that.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        Wow, macroMoses, you are completely losing it again. What on earth have I said here that remotely resembles or agrees with what Bruce Hall is saying about Michigan? Just how wacked out are you?

        BTW, you are making factual errors again. Minnesota is not a “neighboring state” of Michigan.

        1. macroduck

          Poor, sad little Barky. If you do it, it’s te cutest thing because you did it. When it’s done to you, different story. How very Bruce-like of you.

          1. macroduck

            And by the way, what you should have said is that Minnesota does not “border” Michigan. A neighbor is one who lives next to or near. It’s in the dictionary. But in your normal disregard for hioesty, you have claimed otherwise. Really, Barky, your usual vile debating tricks are wearing thin.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            Sorry, macroMoses, the bigger problem wity your remarks is that you just completely outright lied about what I said. You somehow claim that I said the same things about the Michigan economy as Bruce Hall. Where did yu get this total fantasy? Did the mother you hate tell you this?

            I said nothing about the Michigan economy. I criticized Bruce’s remarks about Whitmer, along lines similar to what Menzie said.

            The only comments I made about economics was to raise the question about why the oil producing states were not doing all that badly. This triggered you to come on and somehow decide that I am unaware that these states have other activities, something I am fully aware of, but it is not obvious why the other sectors in those states, which are not the same across these states, have somehow done so well as to offset the likely damage to their economies from the low oil prices. You did not answer that.

            You do make the remark that the more densely populated states have been ht harder, which is true, and that may help explain OK and ND and AK, but it does not explain Texas or Louisiana, both of which hasve larger cities that have suffered from the coronavirus, but both of them are kind of intermediate in terms of their degree of economic decline. You have offered zero to explan any of this, but this has nto stopped you from lying about what I have said, more ranting and raving while wrong.

            You are seriously ill, Moses.

          3. Barkley Rosser

            macroduck, (for now I shall play along with the fantasy that you are not Moses Herzog and somehow the only person here to share his practice of going on long pwesonalistic rants against me filled with lies),

            On the matter of neighbors, this is probably a tossup. Depends on how one defines the neighborhood. Thus, sometimes one sees a category called “Upper Midwest,” which often includes the five states of the old Northwest Territory: OH, MI, IN, IL, and WI, along with IA and MN. For that MI and MN might count as “neighbors.” Their southern portions also are in the corn belt (although more of MI than MN), and their northern portions are in the sub-boreal zone (more of MN than MI).

            However, there is the older neighborhood that has not only historical and legal resonance but geographical as well of the historic Northwest Territories, defined above. Minnesota is not in that group. Importantly it was not part of the US at the end of the American Revolution, with part of it coming in with the Louisiana Purchase (those parts in the Mississippi river basin) with the rest coming in at the end of the War of 1812. It also is west of the Mississippi River, which many view as an important dividing line between East and West in the nation, kind of boundary between neighborhoods, if you will.

            It does also happen to be the case that all the states of the old Northwest Territory also border Michigan, although Illinois doe so only for a few miles in the middle of the southern part of Lake Michigan. Minnesota and Michigan are never paricularly close to each other.

            So this question of whether those two states are “neighbors” or not is an open one, certainly not the definitely true statement you asserted, and no waving a dictionary around will change that.

            You may be macroduck who is not Moses Herzog, but you are kind of a quack (oh, I could not resist that one).

            BTW, it was a very Moses move, but I shall credit you that your “Barky” is somewhat witty, with its suggestion that I am a barking dog, kind of annoying. If you are actually not Moses, I suspect he is enjoying that one, arf arf.

        2. B.A.Badger

          I am not defending macromoses. He is nuts. However, we, who have lived in both states, do believe that Minnesota and Michigan are neighbors. The border is in Lake Superior. When one stands atop Mt. Lutsen (in MN) and looks across the lake one sees the coast of Michigan’s upper peninsula. I understand the problem. We, who went to the UW, want to believe that the U.P. is part of Wisconsin. But, the Michigan and Ohio War (1835-36) resulted in Toledo being given to Ohio and the U.P. given to Michigan. I think that means Michigan won the war.

          1. Barkley Rosser


            No, MN and MI do not border in Lake Superior or anywhere else. I can believe that one might be able to see the U.P. from somewhere in MN, but that is not the same thing as bordering. I shall grant that it is not as far as I may have suggested to drive from Duluth across the northern end of WI to get to the U.P. of MI, but they do not border.

            As to whether they are “neighbors” or not, I shall simply refer you to the remarks I already made, which are unaffected by the Michigan and Ohio War, and say in the end that it depends on how on defines “the neighborhood.”

            As it is, I now accept Menzie’s word that macroduck is not Moses. The latter really is nuts, while the former is fairly reasonable most of the time, with most of my substantive disagreements with him quite minor. I am not sure why he is so impressed with the lunatic Moses, but in terms of flying off the handle in the last few days, I have seen a number of people, both in person and otherwise doing so as well, people who are generally quite reasonable and sane really losing it.

            I have a recent post on Econospeak on “Death and the Pandemic Economy” that I end with a comment on this fact, that I have recently seen a lot of people “freaking out,” with these outbursts by macroduck a perfect example. I thinik it is a combination of the cumulative impact of the extreme strain of the lockdowns and pandemic, with that supposedly things are getting better when for most they are not very much, which leads to frustration (and may lead to increased suicided), as well as the massive outbreak of total craziness triggered by this awful murder in Minneapolis, which itself may have been a manifestation of this by the cop who did it, who clearly completely lost it. So we should forgive macroduck and hope for him to restrain himself a bit more in the future.

    6. 2slugbaits

      Bruce Hall Michigan’s manufacturing will start up very soon and pull the rest of Michigan’s economy up with it

      Unfortunately the BEA doesn’t publish Leontief technical coefficients at the state level, but the BEA does publish that data at the national level for 71 different industries. Anyway, I decided to see what would happen if we reduced value added by 50% for the motor vehicle and parts sector relative to the 2019 level. I then crunched that through the Leontief matrix to capture the overall economic effect on the other 70 upstream and downstream industries. It turns out that a 50% reduction in motor vehicle and parts would only shave off seven-tenths of a percentage point from GDP. It’s unclear what the effect would be on Michigan’s economy, but keep in mind that the automotive sector only accounts for 7.8 percent of state GDP. The automotive sector represents less than the professional, technical and scientific services sector. I suspect that you’re still living in the 1970s. Big Auto just isn’t what it used to be.

  3. spencer

    In the just released data on first quarter GDP, profits are collapsing even though the economy was just starting to contract at the end of the quarter.

    Does this imply that firms will not be bringing back employees as quickly as the bulls expect?

    1. macroduck

      Hysteresis through profits? Seems plausible.

      State budgets are likely to be another channel. July is budget month for a lot of states, which means locking in a sharp reduction in spending till mid-2021 in the absence of federal help.

  4. pgl

    I bet Bruce Hall thinks this is the role model for test and trace policy:

    Pennsylvania House Democrats are in an uproar after finding out that state Rep. Andrew Lewis (R) only told the Republican caucus about his positive COVID-19 diagnosis. Pennsylvania House Democrats are in an uproar after finding out that state Rep. Andrew Lewis (R) only told the Republican caucus about his positive COVID-19 diagnosis … “That Democrats who had contact with him were not notified is not just a political stunt – this is beyond the fkn pale!” wrote Rep. Summer Lee (D) on Twitter. She said that some of Lewis’ Republican colleagues refused to wear masks on the floor for the week between when the GOP caucus found out and the Democrats did. “From day one we had Republican colleagues unapologetically trivializing and politicizing this pandemic,” she added. “They have shown a callous disregard for the lives of people in my community.”

    First the Republicans pull a Trump/Rand Paul stunt – not wearing masks as they potentially infect others. But when Lewis found out he was sick he did tell his Republican colleagues and staff. But no need to alter the Democrats. After all – it is OK if they die. MAGA!

    1. baffling

      lewis is a case study of why we still need to effectively social distance and wear facemasks. if people behaved in a more responsible way, we could get through this pandemic in better shape. instead we have idiots like andy lewis and bruce hall holding back the economy from fully reopening.

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