As of today, here are key monthly indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (5/29 release), Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
Q2 nowcast from Atlanta Fed is -48.5% (6/9), from NY Fed is -25.9% (6/12), St. Louis Fed is -38.9%(6/12), all SAAR. IHS Markit is -37.4% as of today.