From The Hill:
Sharp increases in the number of coronavirus cases diagnosed in states across the nation have some local elected officials considering pauses in reopening their economies.
The rising number of cases are hitting hardest in Sun Belt states like Arizona, California, Florida and Texas. All four of those states reported their highest single-day increase in the number of confirmed cases over the weekend.
Officials have also pointed to a troubling trend in the number of people who must be hospitalized for treatment, raising anew the frightening prospect of an overwhelmed health system. …
These four states account for 30% of 2019 US GDP.
Here is a graphical depiction of cases, from Goldman Sachs Coronavirus Tracker, today:
Exhibit 13 from Goldman Sachs, 15 June 2020.
Curiously the number of Covid-19 deaths nationally has continued to trend downwards, reaching a low of 389 yesterday, the lowest since back in March. However, probably that decline will slow if not reverse given the surge of new cases in so many states.
Barkley,
I think the increase in the number of cases is due to to the increase in number of tests.
Hospitalizations are on the rise as far as I can tell from reports. That is not due to testing. And the sharp rises in cases are not correlated by location to increased testing.
Exactly right. There is a confounding factor in the number of detected cases, but not in hospitalizations. Hospitalizations represent an easy way to check one’s priors. Sammy’s belief reflects his bias, which he doesn’t care to check against other data, and so he draws a mistaken conclusion.
One thing to keep in mind when looking at national totals is that New York and NYC dominated the count during the national peak. Strong quarantine efforts have brought NY numbers down sharply, which accounts for much of any nationwide improvement. Look at the national total minus NY and it becomes obvious that there were still big problems in lots os states. NYC is easing restrictions now. Plenty of idiots in the subway with masks on there chins. We’ll see what happens.
“Look at the national total minus NY and it becomes obvious that there were still big problems in lots os states. ”
this is a good point. NYC has been in shutdown mode until recently.
That is because you are not thinking. You are just reading pre-approved nonsense from Kellyanne Conway.
If you keep the virus out of old age homes, the health care system should be able to manage with a lower mortality rate. NYC and Italy both shoved patients into old age homes and we saw the result. Spike in infections isn’t necessarily terrible, as mentioned look at hospitalizations and death rates. Those are more important.
Weekend nonreporting. It surged monday
Of course the numbers are overall being driven by what is happening in New York.
Deaths significantly lag infections by 3+ weeks. Deaths are also a function of local hospital capacity (overloaded local systems will have 3-5x death rate than hospitals still within capacity) and demographics of the infected (old vs. young most notably). Death data also has significant day of the week seasonality with local lows on Sunday and Monday.
Let’s not forget diabete nd obesity as factors which lead to higher rates of death. Those conditions are lo epidemic in the U.S. “Old vs young” leaves out a lot.
Diabetic and obesity much more frequent in the old south– Trump country.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936
If your assertion is correct, we should begin to see many more deaths in major U.S. cities by the last week of June.
Texas hospitals are starting to fill up this week.
Arizona’s rate of testing is actually decreasing. See the graphs at 91-dovic
And you can go look at other trends as well.
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Arizona&show=us-states&y=highlight&scale=linear&data=tests-daily-7&data-source=jhu#states-normalized
Cases without test numbers is meaningless. What is the ratio of cases to tests? Death rates continue to drop and deaths continue to drop.
Not anymore. Deaths have flattened with a rise coming to hospitalization.
As of 6/14/2020, California reports cumulative tests of 2,868,182 and cumulative cases of 151,452. Without considering lagging of cases related to tests, cumulative cases as a percentage of tests = 151,452 / 2,868,182 or about 5.3%.
For the daily percentage as of 6/14, the percentage of daily cases as a percentage of daily tests is 2,597 / 66,186 or about 3.9%, and again this calculation does not consider lagging of cases to match with tests. Hopefully the percentages are not too far off from a lagged calculation.
https://update.covid19.ca.gov/#top
https://data.chhs.ca.gov/dataset/california-covid-19-hospital-data-and-case-statistics
People are not going to fall for it a second time. Fool me once…..
Only blue state governors are standing in the way, either because of their totalitarian impulses or because they are under orders to prolong the destruction of the economy to try and hurt Trump.
Why is not there any social distancing lectures regarding the BLM protest/riots? You can’t sit down in a restaurant, but you can go downtown and protest by the thousands, shoulder to shoulder for hours yelling inane chants and pulling down 500 lb statues onto unfortunate bystanders?
People aren’t buying it.
More pre-approved Kellyanne Conway reading material!
Sure, Sammy. Here in California it was no doubt Newsom’s plan to go from an expected significant budget surplus to a significant budget deficit. And to nearly quadruple the unemployment rate. And, of course, to possibly furlough (or lay off) unknown numbers of public employees. All “to try to hurt Trump.”
Top notch analysis, Sammy. Not much gets past you.
sammy,
I realize there is no data on this, or not that I am aware of, but looking at photos and also having been in one myself, it seems that a lot of the BLM protesters are wearing masks and attempting to maintain social distancing. I know this has not been the case everywhere, but there is a lot more of it than we see with the anti-lockdown protesters in Lansing who entered the state house with major guns, nooses, swastikas, Confederate battle flags, no masks while shouting in the faces of police, and threatening online to kill the governor, not to mention various people crowding bars and other such places. These are not really comparable.
“These are not really comparable.”
I agree with you. The anti lockdown protesters did not destroy property, assault and kill policemen, loot stores, or occupy city blocks. That is the BLM protesters. So they are not comparable at all.
A lot of the looters were apparently boogaloo racists, including the only people caught bringing Molotov cocktails to these demos. As it is, the looting ended some time ago, by whomever.
When the boogaloo racists ended up being filmed in their looting, they decided it would be wise to stop.
“The anti lockdown protesters did not destroy property, assault and kill policemen, loot stores, or occupy city blocks. That is the BLM protesters.”
You have this exactly backwards. But then MAGA hat wearers are serial liars so hey!
I know you like to spout such nonsense, but even the most liberal of networks were showing live/taped video scenes of the destruction during the “protest marches”. So how exactly did Sammy get his narrative wrong and what proof do you have of “false flag” looting? https://twitter.com/no_silenced/status/1272359799028514816
bruce, most of the protests have been very peaceful. houston was a great example of how protestors could be heard without significant damage. the police were under the impression it was not blm protestors causing the problems in houston, but other characters. in fact, the police chief of houston marched with the protestors. considering the size of the protests, it should be considered a success. and no need to use tear gas and rubber bullets like the white house. hey bruce, black lives matter.
here is a very nice article written by a white father of two black children. i think it very accurately summarizes how the midwest views the current situation with police and minorities.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/opinions/white-dad-black-kids-george-floyd-wake-up-call-wierson/index.html
Bruce,
A tweet?
Again, with a very rare exception, the rioting and looting is now long over, although large peaceful protests continue in many places. The biggest problem now is right wing militias spouting tales of nonexistwent “antifa terrorists” and showing up armed to harass and even shoot peaceful protesters, as just happened in Albuquerque. It is happening even more in smaller towns where these thugs can be quite menacing, all be taking over a town they claim to be “proteting.” This happened near me a few days ago in Elkton, VA, only a few 1000, where high school kids organized a peaceful protest that was shadowed by a bunch of these armed Trumpanzee creeps who were shouting things at these kids like “N—-r lover!”
The FBI did a report on the rioting and looting and found a mixed bag. Some of it was indeed formerly peaceful protesters going wild, such as in the burning of the precinct station in Minneapolis. Some of it was just plain crooks and thieves taking advantage of the situation to steal, including mafia in some locations. And some of it was white boogaloo provocateur types, with the FBI singling out the latter as the most dangerous, with that designation now much more clearly the case. Antifa waa a footnote, with basically no organized or even unorganized rioting and looting due to them. However, when AG Barr spoke on the report he only spoke about “antifa terrorists” and “antifa-like groups,” a curious designation for right wing boogaloos, and even criticized FBI Director Wray for not highlighting the supposedly awful antifa terrorists even more.
Die if you want to, you foolish puppet.
It is revealing that sammy presumes to speak for “people”. It’s politician’s trick. Like when McConnell presumes to speak for the “Murcan people”. People disagree about how to deal with Covid, and opinions (sadly) break down along party lines. “People” who are falling for anything are people who fall for cheap propaganda such as sammy is peddling.
The claim that Democratic governors are “under orders” is, of course, absurd. Republicans are the lock-step party, falling in line reflexively. sammy and his ilk are trying to keep alive the notion that the two parties are somehow equivalent. It’s the story Ralph Nader told while helping the lesser Bush rise to power and prove the two parties are nothing alike.
Based on data and being reasonable, people under the age of 55 should be exempt from any lockdown provisions due to Covid-19. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
Those 55+ should have enough experience and wisdom to manage their own behavior given the information available. Also, since 40% of the deaths, all nursing homes should be closed immediately so that their residents can seek safe havens. https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursing-homes-assisted-living-facilities-0-6-of-the-u-s-population-43-of-u-s-covid-19-deaths/#3560411474cd
Meanwhile, so many of us have to gather closely to shout out our protests. Fortunately, we are exempt from the rules of the shutdown game and spreading disease. Nevertheless, we thank the many governors who have ruined businesses and created an atmosphere of paranoia that have caused so many people to neglect the real health problems they have and others to fall into mental depression. Good job.
“Based on data and being reasonable, people under the age of 55 should be exempt from any lockdown provisions due to Covid-19.”
You first said this only about the school kids like granny never comes in contact with them. No granny has to avoid her own son?
“since 40% of the deaths, all nursing homes should be closed immediately so that their residents can seek safe havens.”
So I guess now you want granny to be homeless. Gee Brucie – how nice of you. In other news:
https://www.cnet.com/news/fda-revokes-emergency-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-for-covid-19-patients/
FDA revokes emergency use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19
The FDA cites recent data showing hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine offer no benefits for coronavirus patients.
Poor Brucie – he cannot sell his snake oil anymore. I guess he now has to take that job in the meat processing plant. BTW – let’s make sure he does not wear a mask! What Brucie – you are too scared to go to work?
“Let that sink in: 42% of all COVID-19 deaths are taking place in facilities that house 0.62% of the U.S. population.”
Avid Roy writes some of the most dishonest things ever when it comes to health economics. And Bruce “no relationship to Robert” Hall falls for this intellectual garbage. Let’s see – how many teenagers live in these facilities. How many people in their 20’s or 30’s live there?
Now Bruce – we know you love to write some very stupid things. But to write the same stupid garbage over and over and over again does not eventually make it smart.
No actual data to refute what I wrote, eh?
Just based on my 70+ years of observing, I’d say that the US has the highest percentage of all countries of citizens who just do not give a damn about their fellow countrymen. From gun rights to health care to income equality to educational opportunity to the virus response to you-name-it, if somebody else’s rights, life or happiness stand in the way of mine, then screw them.
Wally,
I would say Americans are more individualistic. That is one of the reasons that as a country we are so productive and wealthy. The poor in this country live like kings compared to some other countries or the US 100 years ago. This is compassion. A poor country cannot afford to be charitable.
How much charity you have towards others comes from your basic humanity. You either have it, develop it, or don’t. I reject the notion that belonging to the Liberal ideology or wanting to give more power to the State means you are more compassionate than someone who doesn’t want to give more power to the government. Witness the Liberal Karen in Central Park that called the police saying an African American was threatening her life. Or saying they “care more” about a man killed by police brutality that they didn’t know and never even heard of 2 weeks ago.
Everyone wants to believe they care more than others. That is why it is such a powerful marketing tool.
Have another sip. Selfish = individualistic. Yes, that sound much nicer. I guess it really is OK to not give a crap about other people.
sammy Apparently you don’t know the difference between charity and justice. Charity is a private virtue. Justice is a social virtue.
It is revealing that sammy presumes to speak for “people”. It’s politician’s trick. Like when McConnell presumes to speak for the “Murcan people”. People disagree about how to deal with Covid, and opinions (sadly) break down along party lines. “People” who are falling for anything are people who fall for cheap propaganda such as sammy is peddling.
The claim that Democratic governors are “under orders” is, of course, absurd. Republicans are the lock-step party, falling in line reflexively. sammy and his ilk are trying to keep alive the notion that the two parties are somehow equivalent. It’s the story Ralph Nader told while helping the lesser Bush rise to power and prove the two parties are nothing alike.
Same old right wing talking points. They were dishonest and self-serving the first time they were uttered, and remain so now. The difference is that they are now worn through at the knees. At least give us something you thought of yourself.
bruce, if trump had not denounced kaepernick, but rather listened to him three years ago, many of these protests would not have occurred. trump could have kept this from happening, but chose not to do anything but inflame the situation.
where exactly do you propose those in the nursing homes will go when you “send them home”. unless you are being metaphorical, and indicating sending them to “heaven”?
just as a reminder, for those like bruce who want to rewrite history. the current state of the country is the result of social distancing and the lockdown. as a reminder, without such actions, you would have a repeat of wuhan, new york city and italy. the virus is deadly if you choose not to address it properly. it is easily spread with an R0 value approaching 3 without controls. bunkerboy and his acolytes want to conveniently forget the history that brought us to this point.
if trump had not denounced kaepernick,
Not just Trump. The same thing goes for NFL owners and way too many grunting football fans. Apparently Kaepernick’s form of protest was too subtle and nuanced for the typical beer guzzling football fan. Contrary to Trump’s lies, Kaepernick was not disrespecting the flag, he was kneeling in protest during the national anthem. And since when is kneeling a sign of disrespect? People kneel in church. A man kneels when asking a woman to marry him. Since our schools aren’t very good at teaching history these days, I’ll just note that the author of the Star Spangled Banner was a rampant and ugly racist even judging by the standards of his own time. He vigorously prosecuted abolitionists for merely possessing anti-slavery pamphlets. His brother-in-law was SCOTUS Chief Justice Roger Taney. A generous description of Key’s views on race and slavery would be “complicated.” Given Key’s personal history it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone (except perhaps our ignorant President) why Kaepernick chose to protest the national anthem and not the flag.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/wheres-debate-francis-scott-keys-slave-holding-legacy-180959550/
kaepernick got the idea to kneel from a special forces vet. this was not a disrespect for the flag or military, as trump and his ilk have tried to argue. it was inspired by the military.
Utter nonsense, Bruce. Your view completely ignores the effect of one person’s behvior on other people. If those who are less likely to die from Covid don’t act to limit the spread, they increase the odds those more likely to die will contract Covid.
Ah, but there’s more! Those under 55 are not exmpt from Covid harm as you seem to suggest. They die in smaller number, but still die from Covid. Covid is showing signs of doing lasting physical damage to many who live through it.
I’ve said before and repeat it now: Bruce’s behavior here looks very much like that of a paid political stooge. He need not write aanything true to please his master. He merely has to repeat the line taken by those political masters.
So, just to get some facts into this mess:
Covid is highly contagious. Young people die from Covid, just like older people, only at a lower frequency. Those with other physical maladies are at greater risk of death from Covid, so again, it is not just a risk for the elderly. Anyone, of any age, who contracts Covid is at risk of long-lasting organ damage.
It is nonsense to characterize the choice to reduce risk of spread as merely personal, as Bruce does, because each person’s behavior affects other peoples contagion risk. Arguing that we should all behave any old way we want is like arguing that we should all pick our own traffic laws.
https://news.yahoo.com/trump-coronavirus-testing-stopped-testing-212011656.html
Trump on coronavirus testing: ‘If we stopped testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any’
Trump has said this incredibly dumb nonsense before. Then again – our own Bruce Hall says things even more absurd and he repeats his absurdity over and over again. Go figure!
Why didn’t they include Florida and Texas that clearly have been in a strong uptrend.
ttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus-national&variant=show®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=storylines_menu
Why didn’t they include Florida and Texas that clearly have been in a strong uptrend.
ttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus-national&variant=show®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=storylines_menu
Sammy = Bot?
Gotta be. No human could be that idiotic and actually write a coherent sentence.
Sammy just knows there are evil doer governors purposely wrecking their state’s economies to spite Trump and endanger his re-election. He really believes he’s on TO something.
OTOH, many here believe he’s just ON something.
I listened to Trump’s low energy babbling about policing. It seems that Trump thinks police are great and the protestors are the problem. But he got in some really bizzaro lines. My favorite is how he called those 340 plus NY Firemen who rushed into the Twin Towers on 911 and ended up giving their lives members of the NY Police Department. Yes he is THAT stupid.
But hey Trump announced we had developed a vaccine for AIDS. OK, we have treatments for AIDS but there never has been a vaccine to prevent HIV infection. I think his low energy was due to taking his daily injection of bleach.
Trump’s low energy babbling
Boy howdy you got that right. What’s with Trump? I’m not talking about his usual policy incoherence, I’m talking about his obvious physical decline. In the last two weeks he looks like he’s aged twenty years. Even my 92 year old mother commented about how ancient and decrepit he looked! Let’s not forget that back in November he had an unscheduled “annual physical” and then he just had another medical check-up with almost nothing being reported about the results except his height and increasing weight. He looks terrible.
Meh. The constipated orange guppy will conveniently expire in October. Jared will take his place because Ivanka will not be available due to complications from cosmetic surgery.
Nixon went through something similar before resigning. Trump may simply be showing signs that he can read polls.
Nah. He watches TV and they tell him what the polls say. I am pretty sure he does not bother to read. He couldn’t get the Bible the right way around. Literacy would have made that pretty easy.
Now there is Bolton’s book for him to contend with. If everything he says is classified, then bunker boy will face criminal charges for addressing a MAGA rally.
mary trump has an interesting book coming out as well. bunker boy was pretty awful to the rest of his family as well.
baffling,
There’s that, too. The issue will be whether the rest of the nation, meaning the electorate, has an attention span as short as his, or if we actually start paying attention. If you hold your breath, you will turn blue.
“We have plenty of room to expand beds, there are thousands of hospital beds that are available as we speak right now,” Abbott said.
quote from a cnbc article. let me translate this to the average joe. in texas, the governor believes we can continue to reopen because we have not filled up the beds yet. he seems to believe we need MORE sick people. we are not doing enough to make people sick and send them to the hospital. this is the republican policy response in texas. lets not do things to minimize hospitalizations, lets do things to maximize hospitalizations. amazing.
Houston may have other ideas about that soon.
houston public hospital system has now filled its hospital and icu beds to capacity. they are moving patients to the private hospitals, with some delay. this is what we had hoped to avoid, and were achieving, until the governor reopened the economy prematurely without adequate safeguards. its gonna be a long hot summer in the south.
the calamity that Peter Thiel indicted the Trump administration is here. more deaths, racial unrest, more infections. it is Apocalypse now!
In houston the number of positive test cases has increased while the number of tests conducted has decreased. This data is in direct contradiction of what gov abbott has used as an excuse for texas rise in cases. The media should challenge him on this assertion.