DWD data released yesterday indicates nonfarm payroll employment broke their two month decline. Private employment rose as well, while manufacturing versus accommodation/food services trend diverged. State and local government employment continued their decline.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from December release (black), forecast from June 2020 Economic Outlook (teal), from November 2020 Economic Outlook (red), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, DWD, and Wisconsin Department of Revenue.
Finally, the divergent paths for goods producing and high-contact services providing employment is illustrated in figure 3, using manufacturing employment (blue) and accommodation and food services employment (red).
Figure 2: Wisconsin manufacturing employment release (blue), and accommodation and food services employment (red, right log scale), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, and DWD.
Government employment at the state and local levels continues to decline, illustrating the importance of Federal assistance to state and local governments.
Figure 3: Wisconsin government employment, all levels (blue), and state and local (red), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, and DWD.
Finally, employment, including self-employed and farm workers, was substantially higher, at least as measured/estimated:
Figure 4: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), and civilian employment over 16 (red), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, and DWD.
However, this series is subject to much larger measurement error, as it is based on a household survey that — at the state level particularly — does not have a particularly large sample. Hence, one should be particularly wary of this series. That being said, the trend for this series is downward, while nonfarm payroll is essentially trending sideways.