4 thoughts on “On the Economic Outlook and More

    1. Barkley Rosser

      I had noted reports that many thought $60 per barrel would bring out the rigs in the US, which now seems to be happening. That plus the apparent decision by OPEC to increase production does seem to reduce the chances of a spike to $100 as I thought possible but not all that likely. Again, these markets are subject to sudden substantial changes in prices, and what remains unclear is just how rapidly the world economy and thus demand will expand later in the year, with China perhaps more important in this than the US. But these increases in production do suggest it may be hard for oil to get substantially above $70 or stay there if it does at all, and they have only managed to scrape that level and then fall back into the lower 60s where they seems to be mostly staying, with WTI even falling below $60 a few times recently.

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  1. Moses Herzog

    I like the phrase “political business cycle” Menzie used. It’s a pretty apt and clever way to express it. I assume this relates to Democrats’ fear of losing the Senate. I would think if you have an economic recovery end 2021 that lowers the fears of losing the House, unless there’s some specific districts that lean Republican to start with.

    I thought Menzie did a great job expressing himself and painting the picture looking ahead, but I’m a Menzie fanboy, so there you go.

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