Three quarters of an hour of me talking on the UW Department of Political Science’s 1050 Bascom Podcast, on “insights into how Covid-19 has impacted the US economy as well as international finance and global trade — and what the future might hold.”
Three quarters of an hour of me talking on the UW Department of Political Science’s 1050 Bascom Podcast, on “insights into how Covid-19 has impacted the US economy as well as international finance and global trade — and what the future might hold.”
OPEC thinks the global economic will recover well so has decided it will boost production:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2021/04/01/opec-will-boost-production-in-big-bet-on-oil-markets-recovery/?sh=6afc3be031a0
Good news for most of us but I’m sure that Princeton Stevie pooh is totally depressed that oil prices will not meet his $100 a barrel forecast. Oh well – no Fox and Friends visits for Stevie any time soon.
I had noted reports that many thought $60 per barrel would bring out the rigs in the US, which now seems to be happening. That plus the apparent decision by OPEC to increase production does seem to reduce the chances of a spike to $100 as I thought possible but not all that likely. Again, these markets are subject to sudden substantial changes in prices, and what remains unclear is just how rapidly the world economy and thus demand will expand later in the year, with China perhaps more important in this than the US. But these increases in production do suggest it may be hard for oil to get substantially above $70 or stay there if it does at all, and they have only managed to scrape that level and then fall back into the lower 60s where they seems to be mostly staying, with WTI even falling below $60 a few times recently.
Sometimes news on transfer pricing abuse takes a while to be known. It seems Bristol Myers gave away very valuable patents to low tax Ireland back in 2012 and credit has to go to investment analysts who noticed and called out Bristol Myers 8 years ago:
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/irs-alleges-bristol-myers-squibb-dodged-up-to-1-38b-taxes-2012-report
But this was just reported in the press? Oh wait the IRS is finally on the scene – 8 years later.
I like the phrase “political business cycle” Menzie used. It’s a pretty apt and clever way to express it. I assume this relates to Democrats’ fear of losing the Senate. I would think if you have an economic recovery end 2021 that lowers the fears of losing the House, unless there’s some specific districts that lean Republican to start with.
I thought Menzie did a great job expressing himself and painting the picture looking ahead, but I’m a Menzie fanboy, so there you go.