IHS-MarkIt (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) released monthly GDP today. The July employment situation will be released this Friday.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from June release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 8/2 for July nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (8/2/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.
Both Monthly GDP and personal income excluding current transfers growth have stalled out at prior-peak levels. Relative to the NBER peak in 2020M02, employment continues to be the laggard, down 4.5% (log terms). If nonfarm payroll (NFP) in July rises as forecasted by Bloomberg consensus by 900K, it’ll still be down by 3.9%.
Contributions to June’s GDP growth are shown in the table below.
Final sales growth outstripped GDP growth, as in the quarter overall (see this post), hence the -2.1% (SAAR) contribution from inventory decumulation. Net exports have been exerting a drag in the last two months, as well.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-08/03/c_1310104809.htm
August 3, 2021
Nearly 1.69 bln doses of COVID-19 vaccines administered in China
BEIJING — Nearly 1.69 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines had been administered in China by Monday, the National Health Commission said Tuesday.
[ Chinese coronavirus vaccine yearly production capacity is now over 5 billion doses. Along with over 1.688 billion doses of Chinese vaccines administered domestically, another 700 million doses have been distributed internationally. A number of countries are now producing Chinese vaccines from delivered raw materials. ]
New York politicians often eat their own but what I’m been listening to just now is going to be very rough for the NY Governor aka Randy Andy. The Attorney General’s office has thrown Randy Andy under the bus and ran him over again and again. Maybe Cuomo should kiss up to Trump and hope he gets invited to Mago Largo as he is done in New York.
Kathy Hochul – get used to this name as she may soon be the Governor of New York. Yea Randy Andy is spoiling for a fight but he has no friends to support him.