Estimating through end-May, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events:
Figure 1: Mass shooting casualties (killed+wounded), left scale (brown), and mass shooting events (blue bar, right scale). Gray shading denotes assault weapons ban. Orange shading denotes Trump administration. Source: Mother Jones database.
We can analyze correlations using regression analysis (negative binomial for casualties, Poisson for events).
casualtiest = –1.72 – 0.72 bant + 1.21 trumpt – 0.14 bident +0.00001popt
Adj-R2 = 0.022, SER = 32.6, NOBS = 389. Bold denotes significance at 10% msl, standard errors corrected for overdispersion (GLM option in EViews).
For number of mass shooting events, count regression (Poisson):
eventst = –5.27 – 0.55 bant + 0.55 trumpt + 0.014 bident +0.00001popt
Adj-R2 = 0.100, SER = 0.565, NOBS = 389. Bold denotes significance at 10% msl, standard errors corrected for overdispersion (GLM option in EViews).
Population for April, May extrapolated using previous year’s worth of population data (in log first differences).