Business Cycle Indicators at June’s Start

With the release of monthly GDP today, and income and consumption earlier, we have the following picture of series followed by the NBER BCDC.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus of 6/1 for employment (blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (6/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.

Manufacturing and trade sales fell more than what I forecasted using retail sales, while consumption grew faster than I forecasted using retail sales and food services, in this mid-May post.

IHS Markit notes:

Monthly GDP rose 0.5% in April, more than reversing a 0.3% decline in March that was revised up from a previously estimated 0.4% decline. The increase in monthly GDP in April mainly reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures and net exports.

With the second release of official Q1 GDP, and IHS Markit monthly GDP, we have the following picture.

Figure 2: GDP (blue bar), GDPNow nowcast of 6/1 (brown bar), and monthly GDP (black line), in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR, all on log scale. Source: BEA, Q1 second release, Atlanta Fed 6/1/2022, IHS Market 6/1/2022. 

In sum, rising industrial production, income, consumption and employment in April suggest a recession is not yet imminent, despite the flatlining in monthly GDP November-March.

131 thoughts on “Business Cycle Indicators at June’s Start

  1. AS

    Tweaking of prior nonfarm payroll forecast seemed needed. I noticed that the payroll category of “Transportation and Utilities” consisted of subcategories wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation & warehousing and utilities. Trying to minimize the number of forecasting categories, I had forecasted the Transportation and Utilities category. This resulted in a rather large negative forecast for the category which did not seem correct. Splitting Transportation and Utilities into subcategory forecasts changed my forecast from as I recall 185k to 310k new jobs, which seems more likely to be close to the actual report which we will see tomorrow. If this forecast is close, it has required the forecast of 17 subcategories to forecast nonfarm payroll, FRED series: PAYEMS. The Econoday consensus shows 325k and a consensus range of 2501k to 370k. Bloomberg consensus shows 325k.

      1. AS

        Using the same group of ARIMA models that I used for May, June’s nonfarm job change may be about 303K as shown by the group sum.

  2. Steven Kopits

    I’ll take the under. Maybe not Q2, but Q3, Q4? I think the Euro countries are at oil shock levels for oil prices, and we are pretty close. And oil shocks can take down an economy in thirty days.

    1. pgl

      The under? Are you playing Fan Duel or what? Let us know what teams you are betting on so we can bet the other way.

    2. Moses Herzog

      I think I figured out why you and Barkley love each other so much~~between your fantasyland of oil shocks suffocating Germany and his fantasyland of Russian soldiers playing Uno and Twister on the Belarus southern border, it’s like the pseudo-intellectuals’ version of the Beatles’ Strawberry Fields Forever. Are you two going to invite the Mad Hatter over for tea today??

      1. Barkley Rosser

        Moses,

        Oh gag.

        Look, bozo, just because I do not join the name calling you and a couple of others engage in on Steven and also recognize that he actually does know a lot about the oil industry, does not mean that he and I “love” each other, although we are among the few around here who do what the hosts would prefer, which is to operate under our own names.

        As for this current thread I am in substantial disagreement with him. New jobless claims have just hit a low not seen since 1969. This has us pretty bloody far from being in a recession right now, much less this fantasy he has come up with of a “suppression.”

        Why are you so sick that you have to make up all sorts of total crap about me, Moses? Itr really gets tiresome after awhile. You are such a total creep.

        1. pgl

          “he actually does know a lot about the oil industry”. Well Steve was shocked that German gasoline prices were higher than US gasoline prices – which is something I thought everyone knew.

        2. Steven Kopits

          You can pull ‘suppression’ right off the graph.

          Is you think those three things are the same — rec, dep, supp — each clearly different on the graph below — then you’ll have the same policy prescription and you’ll make the wrong choice. Powell did. Yellen did.

          https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja6lNCx7p5e67wVZv8pngtPgleyOIldvuTJTFkpSmz80UlzW0g9_0Vg2nWAseZOup5bcxC56emS_XbbO1NsCYoOJqOS600JHrlaHeYe6GHrYZRUjxBG847SkKhica6iq98bZnXFafVlvsMrqQ8demaTFEd1VLlzHiWHClt_Fs7rNlke_UEKw/s1112/EmployRecessionMay2022.PNG

          1. Barkley Rosser

            Steven,

            Maybe you can pull it “right off the graph,” but I am not at all clear on how to do this.

            Do please name one other human person on this planet, preferably an educated economist, who thinks you are onto something at all useful with this “suppression” stuff.

          2. Steven Kopits

            Barkley –

            Do those lines look all the same to you? Are they the same phenomena in your opinion?

        3. Steven Kopits

          Actually, Barkley, I’d like to return to the graph linked below. It shows percent of jobs losses in post-WWII recessions and is from Calculated Risk just today.

          So here’s my question for you. When you look at the graph, do all those lines look the same to you? Are they the same phenomena to your eye, or are they different? If they are the same, then your policy prescription should be the same, and the outcome should be the same. But clearly, using the same policy produced wildly different outcomes at different times. Why? If they are the same in your opinion, then that should not have happened, no?

          If they are in fact different, what do you think is different about them? How would that affect your policy prescription? Do they then warrant classifications as different things? And if they do, do you think we ought to give them different names to distinguish one type of downturn from another? And if so, what terms might you suggest?

          When I look at the graph (Menzie could put it up if so inclined), I see three — maybe four — different phenomena. That top group, basically the 1948 to 1981 recessions all look very similar. The 2007 recession looks completely different, as does the 2020 recession, no? And then there’s the 2001 recession which could be a 1A-type recession, kind of a long, ordinary recession. But clearly there is some kind of problem or issue in 2001 that might warrant revisiting.

          So, I look at that graph and see ordinary recessions, plenty of them. I see a big, durable dip which looks like a depression to me. And I see a completely different looking dagger recession in 2020. I think those are different things, and I think they require different policies responses. What do you think?

          https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja6lNCx7p5e67wVZv8pngtPgleyOIldvuTJTFkpSmz80UlzW0g9_0Vg2nWAseZOup5bcxC56emS_XbbO1NsCYoOJqOS600JHrlaHeYe6GHrYZRUjxBG847SkKhica6iq98bZnXFafVlvsMrqQ8demaTFEd1VLlzHiWHClt_Fs7rNlke_UEKw/s1112/EmployRecessionMay2022.PNG

          1. pgl

            The more intellectual garbage you write – the more you prove you are an Utter Idiot. There is not a shred of economics or anything else worth reading in your dumb tirades. I have been too polite so let me clear – SHUT THE EFF UP and start reading a basic macroeconomic text. DAMN!

          2. pgl

            “I think those are different things, and I think they require different policies responses.”

            For each and everyone of these down turns there are excellent discussions of what caused the down turn and how policy responded. NONE of them used the stupid babble you inflict on the readers here. NONE of them use the stupid and worthless term suppression. And you have read NONE of them. No – you just babble gibberish incessantly. That is what I think – worthless troll.

          3. Barkley Rosser

            Steven,

            Gosh, so there have been different patterns of recovery around different recessions.. Sorry, this still does not give you your “suppression” concept as anything worth anything.

          4. Steven Kopits

            So you’re saying, Barkley, “I don’t like it, but I don’t have anything better.” Your advice to, say, Powell or Yellen would be, “Gosh, I don’t know.” That’s what makes you an academic, not a practitioner. If I had been the adviser, I would have said what I did: “This is a suppression, and not a depression. If you push the FFR to zero, you’re going to blow up some serious assets bubbles which will likely have to be resolved with a nasty recession. Indeed, the deflation of housing bubbles, if these bubbles are permitted to persist long enough, may even create a depression, which involves a very long correction as collateral values must be repaired.”

            That advice would have proved sound.

          5. Steven Kopits

            And let me add this: Did no one suggest to the President that the back end of a gargantuan stimulus might involve a technical recession and government spending collapsed? And did no one point out that this collapse might happen right into the teeth of the midterms? Did no one say, “If G falls by 7% of GDP, then GDP may also fall by 7% or something on that order.”?

          6. pgl

            Can Princeton Steve be more dishonest?

            Steven Kopits
            June 5, 2022 at 7:06 am
            So you’re saying, Barkley, “I don’t like it, but I don’t have anything better.” Your advice to, say, Powell or Yellen would be, “Gosh, I don’t know.”

            Look troll – there is a lot of excellent macroeconomic research. Of course a lazy arrogant jerk like you cannot be bothered to READ that research so you pretend it does not exist. Hey Stevie – Barkley is your only friend here. The rest of us despise you and it is asinine comments like this which cause us to despise you.

          7. Barkley Rosser

            Steven,

            There aee a lot more variations in types of recessions than you are letting on, and serious people at the Fed are aware of these nuances and pay attention to them. Your problem is that you have cooked up this one particular variation, “suppression,” that you have never clearly explained, certainly not sufficiently to convince a single other person that it is worth bothering with.

            Heck, you claim there are at least four different recession patterns, but you have come up with just one new name, which, supposedly, we can just “see off a graph.” Sheesh.

          8. Steven Kopits

            “There are a lot more variations in types of recessions than you are letting on…”

            List them.

            In terms of policy responses, I am aware of only a handful:

            1. Lower short term interest rates either directly or indirectly through, for example, lowering reserve requirements
            2. Lower long term interest rates through QE. This is a lot like 1. above, and does not have a particularly successful track record
            3. Fiscal stimulus, either through automatic stabilizers or discrete policy initiatives, ie, stimulus payments with an increase in debt
            4. Unsterilized cash injections (MMT)
            5. Lifting the lockdown (ending the pandemic). This is exactly the point at issue in China at present.

            What am I missing?

            “…and serious people at the Fed are aware of these nuances and pay attention to them. ”

            Are they? Then why did inflation blow through the roof? Why do we have gargantuan asset bubbles? Who are these serious people? Janet “Mea Culpa” Yellen? Jerome “FFR Zero” Powell? Go-Big-or-Go-Home Biden? You’re saying that these ‘serious people’ properly tuned fiscal and monetary policy? You’re joking, right? Larry Summers is a serious guy. Who’s the other one?

            All you are doing, Barkley, is externalizing responsibility for forming an opinion. I don’t mind being criticized and educated. But you’re not doing that. You’re just saying, well, I don’t like what you’re saying, but I don’t have an opinion, other than that I don’t like your opinion. That’s a phenomenal cop-out.

            If you want to get in the ring, then get in the ring and fight your corner. But don’t sit in the bleachers and say, well, he doesn’t know how to box, I could do it better if only I tried.

            All I can say, Barkley, is thank God you were an economics professor and not a radiologist.

          9. Barkley Rosser

            Steven,

            There is a lot more than just the list you provided. There are several more elements of monetary policy. There are more elements of fiscal policiy, such as variations between changes in taxes and spending, not to mention the composition of each, which are important. And there are supply side policies beyond ending lockdowns.

            As it is, providing this list does not provide an explanation for your supposed concept of “suppression,” which you are so proud of.

            BTW, on Summers, let us not overpraise the guy. His inflation forecast came through for reasons he did not call, several new Covid variants appearing along with Putin invading Ukraine. He frankly overstated the effect of the stimulative fiscal policies from last year, which you happen to be right have stopped being so stimulative, even though the inflation continues for reasons not forecasted by Summers.

    3. Steven Kopits

      Latest estimate: 0.9 percent — June 7, 2022

      The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.9 percent on June 7, down from 1.3 percent on June 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.4 percent and -8.3 percent, respectively, to 3.7 percent and -8.5 percent, respectively. Also, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.25 percentage points to -0.13 percentage points/i>

      From the Atlanta Fed: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?utm_medium=social-media&utm_source=twitter-atlantafed&utm_campaign=gdpnow

  3. Erik Poole

    @Steven Kopits wrote: “And oil shocks can take down an economy in thirty days.”

    Reference?

    Relevant to the above claim, do any European countries have excise taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel as low as the USA?

    1. pgl

      Reference? Stevie pooh needs no reference as he thinks he is THE EXPERT on everything. After all – he is the chief economist for Fox and Friends.

    2. Steven Kopits

      My recollection is from the Suez Crisis of 1956. I think it’s referenced in Jim’s paper. It does not have to happen so quicky — it did not in every case — but it can.

      1. pgl

        There are several reasons why we had the 1956 recession but NONE of them were ever attributed to any issues in the Suez. Now I wish you had the decency to tell us which of Dr. Hamilton’s papers you are misrepresenting because you are basically lying there dude. Come on – stop talking about topics which you have zero understanding.

      2. pgl

        I did a little research on 1956 Suez Crisis and the possible economic effects. Yes research – something that Princeton Steve seems to be incapable of doing. The IMF notes how it helped the Brits out with some financial crisis back then but nothing – not a damn thing – on any connection with the 1956 recession. I also did something really simple – find what was happening to inflation adjusted oil prices (base being today’s prices):

        https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart#:~:text=Crude%20Oil%20Prices%20-%20Historical%20Annual%20Data%20,%20%20%2446.31%20%2031%20more%20rows%20

        Wait real oil prices fell below $30 a barrel. And Princeton Steve says this is his reference to how high oil prices can quickly lead to a US recession? I guess he is indeed THIS INCREDIBLY STUPID.

        1. Steven Kopits

          Read Jim’s paper. I consider that the definitive source on the topic. It covers Suez.

          1. pgl

            I did read it. You are misrepresenting what he wrote. So maybe YOU should read Dr. Hamilton’s paper. BTW – show more respect as he is not your drinking buddy.

      3. pgl

        https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w16790/w16790.pdf

        Wow – I found this paper by Dr. James Hamilton (who Stevie decides he has the right to call him Jim). Go to page 10 for a discussion of the Suez Crisis which may have had some impacts on Europe but as for as the US, it allowed us to export more oil. It seems Stevie boy completely misrepresented what Dr. Hamilton wrote. I would suggest Stevie owes an apology but of course this twit is way too arrogant to do that.

        1. Steven Kopits

          OK. So let’s see what Jim wrote:

          1956-1957: Suez Crisis. Egyptian President Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal in July of 1956. Hoping to regain control of the canal, Britain and France encouraged Israel to invade Egypt’s Sinai territories on October 29, followed shortly after by their own military forces. During the conflict, 40 ships were sunk, blocking the canal through which 1-1/2 million barrels per day of oil were transported. Pumping stations for the Iraq Petroleum Company’s pipeline, through which an additional half-million barrels per day moved through Syria to ports in the eastern Mediterranean, were also sabotaged.

          Total oil production from the Middle East fell by 1.7 mb/d in November 1956. As seen in Figure 6, that represents 10.1% of total world output at the time, which is a bigger fraction of world production than would be removed in any of the subsequent oil shocks that would be experienced over the following decades.

          These events had dramatic immediate economic consequences for Europe, which had been relying on the Middle East for 2/3 of its petroleum. Consider for example in this account from the New York Times:

          LONDON, December 1— Europe’s oil shortage resulting from the Suez Canal crisis was being felt more fully this week-end. . . . Dwindling gasoline supplies brought sharp cuts in motoring, reductions in work weeks and the threat of layoffs in automobile factories.

          There was no heat in some buildings; radiators were only tepid in others. Hotels closed off blocks of rooms to save fuel oil. . . . [T]he Netherlands, Switzerland, and Belgium have banned [Sunday driving]. Britain, Denmark, and France have imposed rationing. Nearly all British automobile manufacturers have reduced production and put their employees on a 4-day instead of a 5-day workweek. . . . Volvo, a leading Swedish car manufacturer, has cut production 30%.

          In both London and Paris, long lines have formed outside stations selling gasoline. . . . Last Sunday, the Automobile Association reported that 70% of the service stations in Britain were closed. Dutch hotel-keepers estimated that the ban on Sunday driving had cost them up to 85% of the business they normally would have expected.

          The invasion occurred on Oct. 29 and by the Dec. 1 byline of the NYT article, the cutbacks in services had clearly been going on for some time. There are 33 days from Oct. 29 to Dec. 1, and clearly the cutbacks had been in place for some time before December.

          Therefore, I stand by my statement. An oil shock can ripple through an economy and cause a contraction in as little as one month.

          1. pgl

            “These events had dramatic immediate economic consequences for Europe”

            You were originally talking about the US economy MORON. And I have already noted what happened here. How stupid are you anyway? Damn!

          2. pgl

            “Volvo, a leading Swedish car manufacturer, has cut production 30%.”

            One company is not the entire Swedish economy. Are you really THIS DUMB? I guess so.

        2. pgl

          “Read Jim’s paper. I consider that the definitive source on the topic. It covers Suez.”

          This AFTER I linked to the paper and noted what Dr. Hamilton (Jim? show more respect) actually wrote.

          1. Steven Kopits

            I know Jim personally. We have presented together a couple of times. If Jim had been on the Fed board, we would not be in the inflation pickle we’re in now.

          2. pgl

            Steven Kopits
            June 3, 2022 at 11:16 am
            I know Jim personally.

            Whoopie! I have to been to conferences with Dr. Milton Friedman. At one – he was very complimentary of something I presented. But I would NEVER refer to this Nobel Prize winning economist as Uncle Milty. No – I have a little respect for real economists. But you sir are one arrogant moron.

      1. pgl

        Dude – for an expert oil consultant, you did not know that gasoline prices in Europe tend to be high. BTW – I guess you are as bad at oil economics as you are at everything else.

          1. Steven Kopits

            Making ethnic slurs now, are we, Moses? Are there any other nations or ethnicities you’d like to describe as ‘trash’, Moses?

          2. Moses Herzog

            @PrincetonKopits
            Nope, just where you hail from. Have you done any horrendously underestimated death counts for Hungarians?? Or do you just save death undercounts for brown people?? Asking for a friend.

            I don’t remember you a single time on this blog complaining about trump’s racism when he was accusing Mexicans of being rapists and making life hell for immigrants at U.S. airports and universities. Nor have I seen you type anything about ethnic cleansing by Putin on this blog. That concludes today’s episode of “I’m Only Bothered By ‘Racism’ Towards Whites”. Tune in next week when Kopits gets upset about Irish drunk jokes.

          3. Moses Herzog

            Poor Kopits, he’s part of the tormented and assailed group of white Hungarians, who suffer every day under Biden at American airports and university admissions, trying to get living quarters with no paperwork at Universities they’ve been attending the last 3+ years. Those poor poor Hungarians:
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9L78ayk7wc

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GF9B-9PH4qQ

            https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2017/01/how-trumps-muslim-immigration-order-could-affect-higher-education/514925/

            Tell us Kopits, when were your castigated and aggrieved white Hungarian relatives banned from attending college in America, and when have you ever complained about immigrant minorities not being allowed to attend American universities under donald trump???
            [ Give us the link please Stevie, while you’re looking up “the dozens” of links to your prior statements against donald trump’s ban on immigrant college students in America, Google the distance from Princeton New Jersey to Ellis Island and tell us the total distance, would you SteveMeister?? ]

            Some people love engaging in continual race-baiting, as most FOX “News” inhabitants do, but God save the person who says something negative about Hungarians to PrincetonKopits. But Kopits has a Korean in-law, so people, don’t give him flack on this, ok??

          4. Moses Herzog

            I was watching an old B-movie co-starring Eugene Levy, and although his parts were funny the rest of the film was a little slow, and my mind started to wander. And I thought to myself in my daydream “Hmmmm, I haven’t thought of any new nicknames for the BrownPeopleDeathUndercounter lately…… what would be a good new nickname for him, just to keep things “fresh”??

            How does this strike you people?? The new nickname is…….. TheHungarianSnowflake. What do you guys think? BTW, I just checked with TheHungarianSnowflake on how he was measuring deaths in the Nigerian Church bombing.
            https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/gunmen-kill-worshippers-during-church-service-nigeria-media-2022-06-05/
            He says because of the confusion of processing death certificates and the weird work of the local municipal coroner, that 50 deaths is way way way too high. He figures only really about 3 Nigerians died, and that if you take the 3/5ths Compromise that adds up to only 1.8 people dying instead of 50. TheHungarianSnowflake says, any number over 1.8 human deaths is:

            1. “Yet to be discovered”
            2. “Yet to be processed”
            3. “Yet to be recorded”
            4. “Yet to be reported”
            5. “Yet to be disclosed”
            https://econbrowser.com/archives/2018/06/garbage-and-non-garbage-estimates-puerto-rico-edition#comment-210093

            https://econbrowser.com/archives/2018/05/measurement-and-forecasts-of-the-puerto-rico-economy#comment-209748

            But, TheHungarianSnowflake says “stay tuned” he’ll have “updates” on his blog and 4:00am FOX News with a breakdown on why brown people’s deaths are often “overcounted” by the MSM media. It’s gonna be a great show!!!!!

            BTW, TheHungarianSnowflake updated this comment, all of this is supposed to happen before the end of 2026:
            https://econbrowser.com/archives/2018/03/wisconsin-manufacturing-employment-boom-revised-away#comment-206452

            Happy Forecasting!!!!….. and remember TheHungarianSnowflake’s business slogan “Jesus Loves White People!!!!!” Woohooooooo!!!!

      2. Moses Herzog

        PrincetonKopits says: “I couldn’t imagine a stupider policy than the EU oil embargo.”

        This is what happens after an “analyst” spends 4 years trying to get into the MAGA White House with bad policy prescriptions structured to tell an orange monster what he wanted to hear, and that “analyst” still failed to gain entrance to the White House. Just to give you a clue what a failure Kopits has been, even Adam Schiff got to visit donald trump when he was in the White House. Kopits flailed his arms around the White House gates and thrashed himself on Pennsylvania Avenue ground like an injured pigeon and he still couldn’t get in. Now he’s hoping Putin will invite him to Moscow??

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ FormerlyOfStinkyJerseyKopits
            I see you’re taking after our resident “Russian expert” Barkley Junior and quoting Kremlin bullet points like Bible verses from the Sermon on the Mount. Birds of a feather fly together. No wonder Barkley admires you so much, since you’re quoting Kremlin talking points, this entire time YOU were Barkley’s “inside source” on Russia “not invading Ukraine”. Wow. The murderer was the bearded lady and I thought it was Colonel Mustard the whole damned time.

        1. Steven Kopits

          Then you can rest assured the Yellow Vests will not come back into the streets. I think think there’s a good chance they will.

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ PrincetonKopits
            So are the Yellow Vests good actors or bad actors in public discourse?? I suspect Kopits will never answer that question, because he’d either lose 7/8ths of his audience on FOX and OAN radio or be admitting he’s racist. Riding the fence and being ambiguous pays your bills well doesn’t it Kopits?? I mean when you’re not defending the deep burdens of being white Hungarian. donald trump doesn’t have to say “I hate Blacks” behind the podium in order to get 100% KKK and 100% Stormfront support does he Kopits?? And you don’t have to say what you think for your audience to know the score either, do you??

            Don’t ever say on FOX news that large employers of illegal immigrants shouldn’t be punished for employing illegals though Kopits. Keep that “on the lowdown” or even the illiterates on FOX might start to see what you do as a kind of grafting.

          2. Moses Herzog

            *illiterates watching FOX I should have said. I imagine even the dumb blondes anchoring FOX are on to your game, or why have you on to begin with??

          3. Steven Kopits

            I am saying that the Yellow Vests will undermine the legitimacy of the anti-Russia coalition. Those same folks can take down Xi in China. Civil unrest of the Arab Spring sort is associated with high oil and food prices. Now coming to a store near you.

          4. Ulenspiegel

            “Then you can rest assured the Yellow Vests will not come back into the streets”

            But you understand that the Yellow Vests are a French group? Your argument referred to German context.

          5. Moses Herzog

            Steven Kopits says : “The Yellow Vests in France are going to take down Xi Jinping”

            Folks, Kopits’ “genius switch” is never off. I haven’t heard geopolitical analysis this good since Barkley Rosser told us there would be no war in Ukraine. I wonder if Kopits and Junior are the ones who advised Hillary to get a private email server??

          6. Steven Kopits

            Ulen –

            The local equivalent of the Yellow Vests. I mean that kind of sentiment. Let me not speak for the Germans, but as for the French, yes, I expect the Yellow Vests or the equivalent back in the streets before Labor Day.

      3. AndrewG

        “I couldn’t imagine a stupider policy than the EU oil embargo.”

        They’re protecting their sovereignty from a violent neighbor. I see tradeoffs, but I don’t see stupidity.

        1. Steven Kopits

          And this, from CNN, Thursday:

          The world is grappling with gravity-defying energy price spikes on everything from gasoline and natural gas to coal. Some fear this may just be the beginning.

          Current and former energy officials tell CNN they worry that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the wake of years of underinvestment in the energy sector have sent the world careening into a crisis that will rival or even exceed the oil crises of the 1970s and early 1980s.

          https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/02/business/energy-crisis-inflation/index.html

          1. Moses Herzog

            “underinvestment” reads here government subsidization of a free market business that needs a life raft. I thought you were pro-free markets Kopits??
            https://e360.yale.edu/digest/fossil-fuels-received-5-9-trillion-in-subsidies-in-2020-report-finds
            Now you want the taxpayer to pay your bills that you can’t pay on your own. If there’s not enough investment, put up your money. You can’t do that, because you know there is no “underinvestment”. You’re just pissed you’re not getting 1,000 free lunches instead of just 100. The soup kitchen just isn’t what it used to be for big oil, is it Kopits?? Did Republican Senators forget to give you some bread with your soup?? Put your fist in the soil and rub that dirt all over your face and put some tears in your dress shirt Kopits~~then maybe you can get those extra free lunches for you and your big oil pals.

    3. pgl

      “do any European countries have excise taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel as low as the USA?”

      Good question – the answer is not nearly but Stevie is dumb enough not to realize that this is one reason why gasoline prices are higher in Europe. And he is some sort of oil consultant expert???

  4. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-02/Chinese-mainland-records-37-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1awSyJHLbEc/index.html

    June 2, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 37 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 50 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Monday, with 28 linked to local transmissions and 22 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Tuesday.

    The Chinese mainland recorded 37 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, with 18 linked to local transmissions and 19 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Thursday.

    A total of 92 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Wednesday, and 9,635 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 224,171, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-02/Chinese-mainland-records-37-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1awSyJHLbEc/img/8ea394496233457e8eceb8a1b1a99468/8ea394496233457e8eceb8a1b1a99468.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-02/Chinese-mainland-records-37-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1awSyJHLbEc/img/f477ec4fd33b4af0a4ba4d3e7e05b7fb/f477ec4fd33b4af0a4ba4d3e7e05b7fb.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-02/Chinese-mainland-records-37-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1awSyJHLbEc/img/55c06316095046ca858e1597ae25b262/55c06316095046ca858e1597ae25b262.jpeg

      1. ltr

        https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-01/2-million-in-UK-estimated-to-be-suffering-from-long-COVID-ONS-1avJXw9RW3S/index.html

        June 1, 2022

        2 million in UK estimated to be suffering from long COVID

        An estimated 2 million people living in private households in the UK were experiencing self-reported long COVID-19 as of May 1, 2022, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Wednesday. *

        Long COVID-19, or post-COVID conditions (PCC), refers to the long-term effects that a person may experience after they were infected with the novel coronavirus, such as shortness of breath, cognitive dysfunction and fatigue, according to the World Health Organization.

        Around 1.4 million of them said they first had COVID-19, or suspected they had the virus, at least 12 weeks previously, according to ONS.

        It also found 826,000 of them to have had coronavirus at least a year earlier, while 376,000 said they first had it at least two years previously….

        * https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1june2022

    1. ltr

      China has gained control of the coronavirus spread, which is a critically important public health accomplishment. Also, economic growth measures are in place and evidently already taking effect.

    2. ltr

      https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-02/Death-rates-soar-for-U-S-older-people-amid-Omicron-wave-report-1awXLeF1qzm/index.html

      June 2, 2022

      Death rates soar for U.S. older people amid Omicron wave: report

      Despite strong levels of vaccination among older people in the U.S., COVID-19 killed them at vastly higher rates during this past winter’s Omicron wave than it did the previous year in the country, The Seattle Times reported on Tuesday. *

      “Almost as many Americans 65 and older died in four months of the Omicron surge as they did in six months of the Delta wave, even though the Delta variant, for any one person, tended to cause more severe illness,” said the report.

      While overall per capita COVID-19 death rates have fallen, older people still account for an overwhelming share of them, according to the report.

      “This is not simply a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” said Andrew Stokes, an assistant professor in global health at the Boston University who studies age patterns of COVID-19 deaths. “There’s still exceptionally high risk among older adults, even those with primary vaccine series.” …

      * https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-updates-may-31-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-world-3/

  5. ltr

    Reader mentioned:

    https://english.news.cn/20220602/5bb86f294e8746e49eb0a2b35d10df57/c.html

    June 2, 2022

    China’s first solar-tidal photovoltaic power plant connected to grid

    HANGZHOU — China’s first intelligent power plant utilizing solar and tidal power to generate electricity was connected to the power grid on Monday.

    The full operation of the power plant in east China’s Zhejiang Province marks the country’s new achievements in the utilization of marine energy resources and the development and construction of its new-energy network.

    Located in Wugen Township in the city of Wenling, the power plant has an installed capacity of 100 megawatts, according to China Energy Investment Corporation (China Energy), a leading energy giant.

    Its annual power generation output will exceed 100 million kWh, enough to meet the annual electricity demand of about 30,000 urban households….

    1. ltr

      Along with an emphasis on energy production, especially green energy production, China is emphasizing building transmissions lines across the country. Ultra-high-voltage power lines are being constructed to bring energy from isolated areas such as desert to urban areas far away. The point is constructing transmissions lines that lose minimal amounts of energy over far distances, and constructing redundancy in power supply. All the work on energy supply now serves as a needed economic stimulus.

  6. rjs

    on this morning’s factory inventories report:

    by stage of fabrication, the total value of finished goods inventories rose 0.4% to $275,311 million; the value of work in process inventories inched up by 0.1% to $223,620 million, and the value of materials and supplies inventories rose 1.1% to $287,121 million…the April producer price index reported that prices for finished good were on average 1.3% higher, that prices for intermediate processed goods were on average 2.2% higher, and that prices for unprocessed goods were 5.3% higher….assuming similar valuations for like types of inventories, those prices would suggest that April’s real finished goods inventories were about 0.9% smaller than those of March, that real inventories of intermediate processed goods were roughly 2.1% smaller, and that real raw material inventory inventories were about 4.2% smaller…since real NIPA factory inventories were slightly greater in the 1st quarter, and this report seems to indicate a large decrease in April’s real inventories, it appears that the real change in April factory inventories could have a major negative impact on the growth rate of 2nd quarter GDP..

    caveat: it’s only one month, and factory inventories are only about a third of business inventories overall..

    1. rjs

      and on Tuesday’s construction report, using the producer price index for final demand construction as an inexact shortcut to make the price adjustment needed for an estimate, in lieu of the couple dozen price indexes used by the BEA….
      that index showed that aggregate construction costs were up 4.0% from March to April, up 0.6% from February to March and up 0.5% from January to February….on that basis, we can estimate that April construction costs were roughly 4.6% greater than those of February and at least 5.1% greater than those of January, and obviously 4.0% greater than those of March….we then use those percentage differences to inflate spending for each of those three months, which is arithmetically the same as deflating April construction spending against the first quarter, for comparison purposes….annualized construction spending in millions of dollars for the first quarter months is given as 1,740,614 for March, 1,736,213 for February, and 1,719,129 for January….thus to compare April’s annualized construction spending of $1,744,801 million to our ‘inflation adjusted’ figures of the first quarter, our calculation is: 1,744,801 / (( 1,740,614 * 1.040 + 1,736,213 * 1.046 + 1,719,129 * 1.051) / 3) = 0.9634, meaning real construction spending in April was down roughly 3.66% vis a vis the 1st quarter, or down at a 13.85% annual rate….

      1. rjs

        better GDP news on the export front…the 4 week average of our total exports of crude oil and petroleum products was at an all time high of 9,826,000 barrels per day last week, eclipsing the record of 9,750,000 barrels per day set 5 weeks ago..

        we’ve been hitting interim highs on each in recent weeks; ie, last week our crude exports were at a 26 month high, this week our gasoline exports were at a 3 1/2 year high…this metric aggregates all those exports:

        https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wttexus2&f=4

  7. Anonymous

    bought a 5 qt jug of synthetic motor oil; last buy was jan 22; up 1/7 ~15%, and the shelf was thin.

    maybe usa should condense more nat gas for synthetic oil & worry less about keeping europe in gas.

    today’s eia report usa net exporter 1.4 million barrels per day, down from ~2 million previous week.

    fox & friends has not been complaining since march!

    i should have bought two jugs!

    1. ltr

      Recessions in 1948, 1953 and 1957 did follow significant increases in oil prices. Whether there was any effort to lesson the household impacts of the oil price increases, I have no idea, but energy costs were relatively more important for households in this period than they would be from the 1980s on.

      1. AndrewG

        “but energy costs were relatively more important for households in this period than they would be from the 1980s on.”

        Good point.

  8. Moses Herzog

    India is now buying a lot of Russian oil at a discount. I’m curious if Biden called India’s leaders up tonight, and told them their technology workers were no longer going to get visas to America to either work or attend college until they stop purchasing Russian oil, how their leaders would take that?? Or possibly freezing any assets wealthy Indian oil traders have within the U.S. government’s purview?? Personally, I think that very stern phone call would definitely be worth President Biden’s making. It’s time America quit playing footsie and give the sanctions teeth.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      Moses,

      Biden will do nothing about india because it is part of the anti-China Quad along with Australia and Japan. He just met with Modi in Tokyo.

      1. Moses Herzog

        I’m not sold Biden “will do nothing”. And certainly not for the reason you gave. Inertia due to “oldman-itis” (something you might be familiar with) might be a cause of not holding India’s feet to the fire on sanctions against Russia. If Biden’s team don’t cut off petro funding of war for Putin they will live to regret it.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Moses,

          Wow you are an idiot. Biden is trying to befriend Modi as part of the Quad. He is very personalistic about relations with foreign leadrrs, and Modie is an important and powerful one. Of course he does not like Modi buying Russian oil, but he also knows the India-Russia relation is very longstanding and not that easily knocked aside. Are you aware of all that, Moses? Just what leverage do you think Biden would bring to bear on Modi to make him stop buying Russian oil at a discount. Sorry, this is something he simply will have to tolerate and knows it.

          This s far more stupid than most of your posts here. Really.

    2. Anonymous

      only new oil refineries are going up in india, china and uae.

      so, as us refineries go uncompetitive, and the green whims keep failing you will depend on imported product.

      or freeze in the dark as the alaskans wanted for the lower 48 in 1972.

      1. rjs

        a little more background…

        Russia Sanctions: India Profiting From Russian Oil Trade by Exporting Refined Petroleum –.India is importing large amounts of deeply discounted Russian crude, running its refiners well above capacity, and capturing the economic rent of sky-high crack spreads and exporting gasoline and diesel to Europe, according to MarketWatch. “

        As the EU weans from Russian refined product, we have a growing suspicion that India is becoming the de facto refining hub for Europe,” said Michael Tran, global energy strategist at RBC Capital Markets, in a Tuesday note. In short, the EU policy of tightening the screws on Russia is a policy win, but the unintended consequence is that Europe is effectively importing inflation to its own citizens. This is not only an economic boon for India, but it also serves as an accelerator for India’s place in the new geopolitically rewritten oil trade map. What we mean is that the EU policy effectively makes India an increasingly vital energy source for Europe.

  9. Moses Herzog

    BTW, some of the Russian oil that is being sold to India, and refined in India, is then being turned around and sent to ports in America, including New York ports. Now if American journalists can figure out the chain of custody here, don’t tell me the FBI or whoever, can’t figure out which American companies are buying the Russian oil that is being refined and India, don’t tell me that bullcrap. These are Americans who are purchasing Russian oil. These are U.S.A. purchasers of Russian oil, or what the WSJ terms as “arbitrage barrels”.

  10. Moses Herzog

    We have, within the last week, multiple claims of “virtual rape” on Facebook’s “Metaverse”, and a woman, Sheryl Sandberg, after 14 years on the job at Facebook, inside the same week the “virtual rape” accusations are made, decides to leave. Anyone have any thoughts on that?? Why am I suddenly thinking of Oprah Winfrey and Harvey Weinstein?? Why do those two come to mind when I’m thinking of Sandberg and Zuckerberg?? My weird and twisted view of the world, playing games on me again…….. Sheryl is a “quiet soul” though…… yes, a “quiet soul”…… “leaning in”…… leaning into…… what???. Let me know people. I’m just a simple guy, trying to learn here. Am I not “leaning in” enough?? Is it my vertigo again?? My inner ear problem where I can’t “lean in” like Sheryl and stay quiet at the appropriate moments?? Gosh…….

    1. Moses Herzog

      You can’t get “suspended” from Twitter twice can you?? I’m just checking because when I criticized a female Texas sports journalist for being an apologist for Baylor “University” officials’ handling of gang rape on their Waco campus I was suspended from Twitter. I just like to see where the goalposts are once very two years or so when they get moved out of my eyeshot again. You know, “#MeTooExceptWhenIt’sFootballPlayers” gets so confusing for me. I don’t want to get suspended from Twitter twice, cuz they are like “woke” and stuff, and I gotta be “woke” at the right moments.

  11. Moses Herzog

    The U.A.E. and Dubai are also providing a safe haven for Russian assets and Russian wealth, circumnavigating western sanctions, as are Turkey and Kazakhstan. And as I said already India is buying a lot of Russian oil at a discount. And also China. And America is purchasing Russian oil that has been refined in India, going to New York ports. All of these nations are bad actors. And Germany isn’t acting much better if the truth be told. If the USA doesn’t find a way to punish these bad actors (certainly those traders at New York ports buying Russian sourced oil) and follow through on their word, it’s very high chance this becomes much more ugly in the months/years ahead. They are making America look like saps;.

    1. pgl

      “The U.A.E. and Dubai are also providing a safe haven for Russian assets and Russian wealth, circumnavigating western sanctions, as are Turkey and Kazakhstan.”

      Cyprus used to be the safe haven for Russian oligarch wealth. I have not followed this lately but would be curious if anyone knows if Cyprus is still playing a big role here.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        pgl,

        Cyprus as part of the EU is supposed to be enforcing sanctrions, although I bet there is still a lot of oligarchic money there. I have heard nothing from my sources about it, so not a lot of activity there.

        BTW, a couple of US intel agencies are now claiming Putin had surgery for “advanced cancer” in April and that there was an assassination attempt against him in March, although these agencies did not include the CIA, which seems to have been well informed about the invasion plans. The NSC has denied these reports.

        OTOH, at the danger of triggering more lunacy out of Moses, I shall report that indeed on some Russian media there have been some discussions about successors to Putin. Nobody reporting he has cancer, but there does seem to be something in the air about him maybe not remaining in power onw way or another for as long as he would like to. All kinds of candidate names are being thrown around, including some I had not even heard of, such as the governor of the Moscow oblast. It is clear there is no front runner over there for this.

        1. Moses Herzog

          “lunacy out of Moses” You mean when I was stating Putin would invade Ukraine while you told us Russian soldiers on the southern border of Belarus were just playing Yahtzee and Durak. You mean that “lunacy”?? You stupid sh*t.

      2. Moses Herzog

        BTW, Barkley, Cypress and EU are different things. I know your early dementia has you thinking when people use two geographic names in the same sentence or paragraph they somehow become fused together. Maybe you can submit your next paper to “Chaos of Barkley’s Brain Journal”. I hear one of the editors there lost his grip on reality a long time ago, and may buy this geographic fusing of regions by syntax that seems to be obsessing you.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Moses,

          Wow, you are really losing it here, so desperate to score some stupid points and falling on your face with outright errors. Cyprus belongs to the EU , which is a group of nations. The EU has ordered sanctions on Russia. The EU members resisting (on oil) are Hungary and Slovakia. I have seen no reports of Cyprus differing with EU sanctions policies on Russia. Have you? I would be interested to see them if there have been any.

          Of course the question had to do with whether Cyprus is still a fave location for Russian oligarchs to hide their money. On that I noted simply that I have no information. Do not know. It is simply not showing up in any news on any of this that I have seen.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Moses,

      The U.A.E. and Dubai are not separate entities. Dubai is one of the seven emirates that constitute the United Arab Emirates,aka “UAE.” Two of them have most of the oil and most of the wealth and economic activity, Dubai and the more dominant Abu Dhabi.

      1. pgl

        Well NYC is part of the USA but I promise you this – if Trump ever gets back in the White House, we are declaring our city to be an independent domain.

        1. CoRev

          Bierka, we can only hope on both points: ” if Trump ever gets back in the White House, we are declaring our city to be an independent domain.”

          1. pgl

            I would suggest if CoRev’s house was transplanted to Moscow – the rest of us would enjoy his absence. Maybe CoRev could even benefit by shining Putin’s shoes the same way does for Trump.

          2. CoRev

            Bierka even again shows the level of hatred from the illogical left: “I would suggest if CoRev’s house was transplanted to Moscow – the rest of us would enjoy his absence.”

            Year after year and now decade after decade we have seen these repetitive hate filled angry commentary. Is it coincidental that the mass killings may be correlated?

            Dunno, just asking for a friend.

      2. Moses Herzog

        This reminds me of when your dumb-ass got confused when I was discussing the southern border of Belarus and Moldova in the same paragraph and you somehow fused them in that decrepit thing you call your brain. Most people here know how to use a map Barkley. Even though you are the “expert on Russia” who can’t decipher what everyone on planet Earth knew but you, that Putin was going to invade Ukraine from Belarus last late February. Most people do in fact know Moscow is a city in Russia, not a city in France. Please, for the love of God, tell me the students who are vapid enough to sign up for your class and listen to things like in your comment just above that JMU offers them a tuition rebate.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Moses,

          This is getting worse and worse here by the minute. Have you been drinking excessively again?

          I am not going to go back and dig it up, but my memory is that you were going on about Russian troops engaging in exercises in Belarus that might invade Ukraine and you added in some in “Southwestern Romania,” Or at least some part of Romania. You cited a map. I then had to point out that the troops you were talking about were in transniesrtria, a part of Moldova that borders Ukraine. and have been three for 30 years now. As it is they are still sitting there doing nothing.

          You were the one that was all screwed up about borders and where things are. And, yes, I am the expert around here on Russia. Can you name anybody else here who knows more about it than t do? I do not think any of the people you claim to admire as really smart like 2slugbaits or Macroduck would claim they know more about Russia than I do, and sure as heck both Jim Hamilton and Menzie Chinn know that I know more about it than they do, and even Steven Korpits, who knows a lot about nearby Hungary probably admits I know more than he does as well.

          So, come on, Moses, if you are going to sneer at me for being an “expert: on Russia because I made an erroneous statement once (One also believed in by Ukraine’s president, I remind you), please name anybody who is more expert here than I am or shut the you know what up. I certainly hope you are not going to propose yourself, expert on Moldova and Romania as you clearly think you are.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            BTW, I accept that Steven K. knows more about Hungary than I do, although I probably know more about it than anybody else here besides him.

          2. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            Based on the fact that you have claimed to be an “expert on Russia” and you thought back in mid-February that Putin had lined up soldiers on the southern border of Belarus so they could play Canasta in the great outdoors, I think I’d take my chances on a 5 year old knowing more about Hungary than you do.

          3. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,

            This is getting tiresome, but since you think you are scoring points by accurately labeling me the “Russsia expert” here, let me point out something about that report I made that you have recounted here more times than any of us can count. When I reported it here, it had not yet been reported at all in the English language media. You all heard Putin’s announcement here before probably anybody else you know, unless they are people who follow Russian media in the original language.

            Now it was reported in the English language media eventually, about two days later actually. What was clear, and I reported, was that most of the Russian people believed Putin when he said the troops would be brought home from Belarus after their exercises. This included, as was widely reported in the Russian media, mothers of soldiers there. We also know that the soldiers themselves believed it, or most of them, with it being noted since that this helped damage morale when Putin violated his promise and sent then into Ukraine instead, a very stupid move as it turns out.

            The Ukrainian leadership also believed him, although they were listening to US intel enough to prepare for the possibility he was lying, with a pretty accurate pic of how he would do it if he were stupid enough to do so, which he turned out to be.

            Anyway, you all heard of this statement from Putin here before most people outside Russia did, even if I went along with Zelenskyy and believed it.

            Now, do you want to try to give us all a lesson in the geography of Eastern Europe? Just which nations border Belarus, Moses, and which nation had those troops you thought were in Romania, or was it Bulgaria? Heck, who can tell the difference and what does it matter?

        2. Barkley Rosser

          Moses,

          Oh, just to remind you, Belarus and Moldova do not share a border, not even close. I would have thought this was one of the topics you would like to avoid, having made a flagrantly enormous fool of yourself the last time it was discussed..

          I have thought of two people here who might like to claim they know more about Russia than I do, given that they like to repeat a lot of Putin war propaganda: JohnH and Anonymous. Now I used to think the latter might actually be Russian because he seemed to know so little about the US. But he has since convinced me that he probably is just a not very smart or well informed American.

  12. pgl

    “To infer by rhetorical supposed questions: ‘Who are you here for? We must be here for the gunmen,’ is an outrage,” he continued. “How dare you! You think we don’t have hearts?” Before Gohmert’s outburst, Democrat lawmakers, including Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and Rep. Val Demings (D-FL), had chastised Republicans for continuing to oppose gun control measures despite repeated mass shootings at schools.

    https://news.yahoo.com/think-dont-hearts-louie-gohmert-055546507.html

    Ah Louie – anyone with a heart would want to ban military assault weapons. You and your ilk have always opposed this ban. So yea – you do not have a heart. So stop your pathetic little whining and get out of the damn way.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Val Demings fanboy here. Demings would have been a 20X better choice than Copmala for VP. But we can’t choose VP candidates based on substance. We have to choose the VP candidates with other things at the top of their priority list:
      https://www.businessinsider.com/vp-harris-felt-wounded-and-belittled-by-vogue-cover-photo-2022-3

      Is this why Copmala has about a 3 person per month turnover ratio for every job on her public relations team?? Magazine covers?? Or is Copmala still imagining visits to borders she never visited??

  13. David O'Rear

    The unemployment rate (3.11%) among those 20 years of age and over is, for the second month in a row, the lowest in 68-1/2 years, since October 1953.

    From Sept 2019 to Jan 2020, just before COVID when the economy was roaring away on massive fiscal deficits, the overall unemployment rate (not the same as the one above) briefly dipped below 3.6% for the first time in over 50 years.. It is now back at that level for the last three months.

  14. GREGORY BOTT

    GDP as they figure it, is wrong. Missing exports and inventory growth is a problem.

  15. pgl

    I’m listening to the economic know nothings at MSNBC fretting that 390K new jobs is way too much which has blown us past full employment and will lead to hyperinflation – or something like that.

    Well the employment to population ratio did rise a bit but is only 60.1%. And we know the labor force participation rate also rose which could mean we are seeing an outward shift of the labor supply curve as we finally get past this damn pandemic. So maybe potential output is rising as fast as aggregate demand. That would not be inflationary.

    Of course note I never had to use that STUPID term coined by Princeton Steve aka “suppression”. So if this arrogant economic know nothing wants to claim I agree with his intellectual garbage – let me be clear. I do not and never will agree with his incessant BS.

    Now I should not be in a foul mood today (even though the Warriors lost last night) as Peter Navarro is behind bars. Happy days!

  16. pgl

    Maybe I should stop listening to MSNBC as they had on Ron Ansana – who is NOT economist – to babble about the employment report. He argued we have too many jobs as there are not enough people to fill those jobs. Never mind the fact that the labor force participation rate rose last month (see my other comment). Ron Asana is a reporter who pretends to be a hedge fund type so maybe this bozo does not know the most basic labor economics. If what he said was even remotely true – then why are not firming raising real wages to attract more workers? Yea – my question has been raised by many others. But apparently Ron Ansana has never had such a concept tweek his limited brain. But MSNBC asks him to opine on economic matters? Dumb.

  17. pgl

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/desantis-vetoes-35-million-for-a-tampa-bay-rays-facility-after-they-tweeted-about-gun-control-saying-it-is-inappropriate-to-subsidize-the-political-activism-of-a-private-corporation/ar-AAY3dNv?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f9be1b7e131e4c1db8317831ce6757f9

    The Tampa Bay Rays tweeted an honest statement with respect to this gun safety issue. So Governor De Santis decides to veto $35 million in spending for one of their facilities arguing that a private company should not be involved in political activism. WTF. First of all the Governor is abusing his office for his own political activism which basically puts gun sales ahead of the safety of his citizens. But come on – companies often play a role in politics. Now when they come out for a just cause – this pathetic governor has to impose this right wing views into the process with an extreme abuse of power.

    1. Macroduck

      Kinda wonder whether the cost of living isn’t an increasing factor in bringing people into the labor market. The high level of openings suggests that supply has limited jobgrowth to “only” 400k+ in recent months. We nearly hit 400k again in May. There aren’t that many new working-age people entering the market. Something keeps participation rising. Seems like maybe it’s budgetary trouble.

    2. Moses Herzog

      I guess when De Santis saw the Florida Secretary of State fraudulently tip a national election for a national leader into the Governor’s dyslexic brother’s lap, he learned that in Florida, anything goes if you have your hands on the lever of power. Which explains why donald trump and his Russian mob buddies love Florida so much.
      https://newrepublic.com/article/143586/trumps-russian-laundromat-trump-tower-luxury-high-rises-dirty-money-international-crime-syndicate

  18. joseph

    Peter Navarro appeared before a federal judge today for hearing. He has decided to represent himself, pro se, even though he has no law degree. What is that saying about having a fool for a client?

    He also demanded that his case be tried before the U.S. Supreme Court, apparently unaware that the Supreme Court does not conduct trials. So about that “pro se”, this should be entertaining. Hope he gets into the sovereign citizen thing and gold fringe on the flag.

    I really thing he has a mental condition and should seek help.

    1. pgl

      Navarro went on a long winded rant pretending to be some big shot lawyer. Actual lawyers were falling on the floor over how many incredibly stupid things that came out of this fool’s mouth. It all sort of reminded me of a Princeton Steve rant on macroeconomics.

    2. Moses Herzog

      Navarro may be intentionally “muddying the waters” with self-rep for a later justification for appeal of the legal result. Cats like Navarro are often smarter than they let on. If you don’t believe me watch the videos of Alex Jones’ Sandy Hook deposition. You can find them on YT, type in Kaster Lynch Farrar & Ball and then look for Part One in the videos section. [ in my best Fred Rogers voice ] “Can you say instantaneous recapture of sanity” kids?? Goooooooood!!! …… Good!! I knew you could”, You’d swear the bastard took half a bottle of Brexpiprazole before taking the deposition.

  19. pgl

    I think we have figured out who JohnH is – Tucker Carlson:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/tucker-carlson-accuses-biden-of-wanting-to-punish-russia-as-payback-for-getting-trump-elected-video/ar-AAY5h4s?bk=1&ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ee92cd0a0db040e5a4db348496fc40ba

    Tucker Carlson has claimed that President Biden is pushing the European Union to stop buying oil from Russia as “payback” for Trump’s election in 2016. During a segment on high fuel prices and airline shortages on Friday’s episode of “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” the pundit said that Biden has been intentionally raising gas prices as part of a “clampdown on domestic energy” and his “lunatic war against Vladimir Putin.” “So, back in February, you may remember that Joe Biden pledged to destroy the Russian economy. ‘Let’s make them poor,'” Carlson said, calling the president’s sanctions against Russia “counterproductive.” “Of course, this is in retaliation for installing Donald Trump as president.”

    Stupid? Of course? Disgusting? Absolutely. But hey – how else are these traitors going to receive rewards from their master – Vladimir Putin?

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