Real Hourly Earnings in May

unadjusted for composition:

Figure 1: Average hourly earnings in leisure and hospitality services (blue, left log scale), and in total private nonfarm payroll (brown, right scale), in 2020$. May observation uses CPI nowcast of 6/5 via Cleveland Fed. NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.

118 thoughts on “Real Hourly Earnings in May

    1. ltr

      January 4, 2018

      Average Hourly Earnings of All Private and Production & Nonsupervisory Workers, * 2017-2022

      * Production and nonsupervisory workers accounting for approximately four-fifths of the total employment on private nonfarm payrolls

      (Indexed to 2017)

      January 4, 2020

      Real Average Hourly Earnings of All Private and Production & Nonsupervisory Workers, * 2020-2022

      * Production and nonsupervisory workers accounting for approximately four-fifths of the total employment on private nonfarm payrolls

      (Indexed to 2020)

  1. pgl

    The current inflation rate is higher than the growth in nominal wages which I do not see as something to cheer about. But damn it – the cable news know nothings are all cheering this decline in real wages as good news as they say this is the price of reducing inflation. Yea – I get it. Even MSNBC hires village idiots. I can only imagine the utter stupidity over at Faux News.

  2. Steven Kopits

    That actually makes some sense to me. I would suspect that a lot of leisure and hospitality workers are min wage, unskilled workers with relatively low tenures at their employers and a high propensity to switch jobs, allowing them to reprice their wages in the short term.

    By contrast, all non-farm will include a lot of contract labor whose wages may only come up for resetting once a year. So it makes sense to me that all non-farm would lag, while l+h would have repriced faster.

    Again, I think we should avoid drawing conclusions from this data. I think the inflationary wave will move through the economy over time, with the result that these sorts of distortions should more or less wash out, allowing for underlying fundamentals (eg, a structural shortage of unskilled labor).

    1. pgl

      “I think we should avoid drawing conclusions from this data”.

      Since the graph shows the Average hourly earnings in leisure and hospitality services went from twice the minimum wage to 3 times the minimum wage we can conclude that little Stevie cannot read a simple graph. Yes – he does write the dumbest things as he does not realize he knows nothing about even basic economics/

      BTW if the fundamentals exhibit “a structural shortage of unskilled labor” then WTF does the minimum wage have to do with anything? Stevie of course has no clue as he just writes gibberish.

    2. Moses Herzog

      @ PrincetonKopits
      What is the timeline for your prediction on France’s Yellow Vests overthrowing Xi Jinping?? Will the Yellow Vest paratroopers have any problems penetrating China’s air defenses??

      1. Steven Kopits

        I think we will see civil unrest in various parts of the globe — well, we already are — but, say, in Europe by Labor Day. Goldman’s current forecast for Q3 Brent is $140, well into oil shock range. European leaders, through the embargo policy, have claimed responsibility for such an oil shock. Put another way, Brent went to the oil shock threshold within 24 hours of the embargo announcement. Therefore, the European public can blame their leaders for the oil shock. The right will seize on this to challenge the accepted orthodoxy. Count on it. That is why I have said that the embargo was insane. It is. Unbelievably stupid by Macron and Scholz in particular.

    3. Macroduck

      Wait, you would avoid drawing conclusions from actual data, but you glibly draw conclusions from your imagination? I see.

      1. Steven Kopits

        I am suggesting that I think it likely that real wages will return to long term trends per 2018 I to 2019 IV when the inflationary impulse has washed through the system. For medium to long term forecasting purposes, I would largely ignore the pandemic era (ie, post 2020 I) data as unlikely to reflect sustainable trends.

        1. pgl

          Any reasons for these ‘forecasts’? Of course not – you just make it up as you go. Same way that you make up totally meaningless terms like ‘supression’.

  3. Moses Herzog

    Shall I give people here half a chuckle?? Uncle Moses paid $4.27 for a gallon of gas on Sunday. If I’d paid attention better I could have gotten gas for $4.19 at a Conoco station but I dropped the ball. Getting harder to find the deals (unless you have a Sam’s card or a Costco card). The place I usually save a dime per gallon on has pretty much gone to where they are the same price as everywhere else.

    I was reading that “backlog of orders” is down and also “prices paid for materials” is also down (in the most recent numbers). So I still don’t buy wages or fiscal stimulus causing this inflation. And you’re going to play Hell trying to get me to believe that one, because what I see is producers taking an illiterate populace on a ride.

    1. Barkley Rosser


      I am not going to make any specific forecasts on this, but it is possible that we may be seeing several signs that the inflationary pressure from the supply side might be peaking, not just the items you note here. One is that crude oil prices finally stopped rising and declined slightly today. Now that may turn out to be a one day wonder with them resuming an upward movement tomorrow that continues. But they may have overshot, with Biden’s ethanol move and appeal to KSA (which I do not like) maybe having some impact on the oil situation.

      Also, looks like lockdowns in China are ending, at least in Shanghai and Beijing, with this hopefully helping on supply issues a bit, although will also lead to more demand for oil and other things coming from China, although that may also be held back by further problems in property markets there.

      There are also reports that Ukraine is working on getting alternative ways to get its grain out. I doubt this will amount to too much, but even some improvement there would help.

      I also note that mortgage rates stopped increasing about two weeks ago and are even down slightly if anything.

      Anyway, none of this amounts to all that much, but the totality of it all might lead to at least some lessening of inflationary pressure coming up, if not a whole lot.

      BTW, note I am agreeing with your main point, in case you are somehow inclined to try to pick a fight with me yet again.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        Well, crude oil prices back to rising again today, so that part of it does not look to be holding. They will top out at some point, but I am not going to call when.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          BTW, while nominal gasoline prices are reaching record levels in the US (and in other places as well, I guess), even though crude oil prices remain well below the $147 per barrel peak WTI hit in June, 2008, it should be noted that in real terms current gasoline prices are about 30% below their 1980 levels, a time when gas mileages were much lower than now and people spent about twice as much of a percent of their income on energy than they do now.

          Also, US has been “energy independent” since last October, at least in terms of the net balance of petroleum product exports and imports, according to Catherine Rampell in today’s WaPo, although one would not know that if one listens to GOP pols yapping their mouths off. But, as she notes, oil prices are set globally, not just by the US market, so being “energy independent” is no big whup that necessarily gets one anything.

  4. Bruce Hall

    The bump in 2021 is probably the result of minimum wage changes going into effect. This would disproportionately affect the L&H sector plus the shortage of workers forcing businesses to pay higher wages to attract workers.

    The troubling trend is the private non-farm workers wages.

    Those diesel prices that were cratering according to pgl still look pretty firm to me. Of course, that’s just a temporary nuisance as we transition to EVs.

    1. pgl

      “The bump in 2021 is probably the result of minimum wage changes going into effect.”

      We have a comment even dumber than what Princeton Steve wrote. Wages are way above the Federal minimum wage and are above the current minimum wage in even the bluest of states. And Stevie even told us that there is a shortage of “unskilled workers”. Now I suspect Stevie has no idea what he wrote even means. I KNOW Bruce “no relationship to Robert” Hall has any clue.

      1. Bruce Hall

        This would disproportionately affect the L&H sector plus the shortage of workers forcing businesses to pay higher wages to attract workers.

        [all] Wages are way above the Federal minimum wage and are above the current minimum wage in even the bluest of states.

        I think you may have put the emPHAsis on the wrong sylLABle.

        1. pgl

          Now you are just writing gibberish. OK – that is all you are left with since you do not understand the most basic labor economics.

  5. Manfred

    Average hourly earnings in leisure and hospitality services (blue, left log scale)

    Is the left scale in logs or is it constant dollars? Because it seems constant dollars.

    1. pgl

      The graph is clearly labeled 2020$ so yes Manfred it WAS in constant dollars. Come on dudes – does anyone here know how to even READ! DAMN!

    2. pgl

      Hey Manfred – read the title of the post:

      Real Hourly Earnings in May

      Yes it was CLEARLY constant dollars. DUH!

      1. Manfred

        Evidently, you are too stupid to read diagrams and comments.
        I quoted the note under the diagram where it (still) says: “Average hourly earnings in leisure and hospitality services (blue, left log scale),”.
        So, why does the note say “left, log scale”?
        But I know pgl, you are just too stupid.

          1. pgl

            Manfred is always good for a laugh.

            Yes Manfred – I did know how to read the graph in its entirety. You don’t.

  6. Macroduck

    Labor income is rising, after accounting for inflation:

    However, that growth is duotone job, rather than rising real hourly or weekly pay.

    The recent rapid rise in participation (labor force up 2.2% y/y) is partly due to pressure in household budgets.

  7. Macroduck

    Priced-in expectations of Fed rate hikes had been falling until Friday’s jobs report. Today’s WSJ finally got around to noticing a pullback in the dollar, just as rate-hike expectations rebounded and the dollar shows signs of stabilizing.

  8. Moses Herzog

    I also find it interesting that the Federal Reserve (and orthodox economists) keep telling us rate hikes are more effective than balance sheet reductions for lowering inflation. Then why the hell was the balance sheet candy held out to broker/dealers/bankers to begin with??~~ANSWER: the purchasing of Treasuries and MBS by the Federal Reserve was NEVER “for main street”, it was for the bankers and investment houses.

      1. Moses Herzog

        I’m sure you’re somewhat asking this half in jest, but I’m actually not sure. I think he told us before and I’ve been amazed at the number of people on this blog telling us about the “great migration” out of California a half breath before they tell us they live around Fresno or something. I think he told us once (and I forgot where) when he was rambling on how life was unfair to him because he couldn’t hire a bus boy at 10 cents an hour.

  9. pgl

    “I would suspect that a lot of leisure and hospitality workers are min wage, unskilled workers with relatively low tenures at their employers and a high propensity to switch jobs, allowing them to reprice their wages in the short term.”

    Wait a second. The minimum wage does not drive situations where an outward shift of the demand curve along a competitive supply curve drives up market wages. I guess this is another episode of Stevie writing words he does not understand!

  10. Moses Herzog

    People can say this is long ago history, and that’s fine. I really can’t argue that in some aspects this was a long time ago. But I was going over these old news stories. And people often say, probably rightly, “You can say what you want about Hillary, but she still would have been better than donald trump.” That may indeed be a fact. But let me pose a question to Menzie, or anyone who cares to answer it. How much utter disdain, lack of respect, and really contempt do you have to have for the American voters to say to them “Less than one year ago, I would not even bother to shake your hand to get your vote, but if you want to see me give a talk in person, you need to fork up $149. That’s the minimum you have to fork up, when one year ago, I refused to shake your hand for your vote.”

    …… And people wonder “Why??” do people hate this woman so much. Is that really a “deep mystery”??

    1. Barkley Rosser


      Oh, I should probably not waste time on commenting on this waste-of-time post by you. But, sheesh, this is almost five years old. All it shows is that you especially hate Hillary a lot, way more than “people,” who these days are hating her a lot less than they did once upon a time, and even back when supposedly they hated her, she still did get 3 million more votes than Trump and almost certainly would have won if Comey had not come out with that email story 11 days before the election.

      I agree she and her campaign made a big mistake not campaigning more in Wisconsin, which in fact had me worried at the time, being an old Wisconsinite and especially after the Comey thing she needed shoring up there. Instead she was running around in “extra” states like Arizona. Big mistake.

      As it is, I am not sure what in this story has you so worked up. Is it the $145 fee (not $149)? Well, I must note that one of the more unpleasant things about both of the Clintons, and there is reason to believe that Bill has been the main source of this, is their persistent money grubbing. At least she was not ordering expensive ice cream with all that money, right?.

      As it is, Moses, this post by you is just another reminder of how you have this list of powerful women you are obsessed with hating. Why do you think anybody is going to be impressed by this obsession of yours? Do you ever see anybody here joining in when you start denouncing them? The list is too bloody long. Frankly, you should be embarrassed by these displays on your part.

  11. ltr

    June 7, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 57 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 57 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Monday, with 39 linked to local transmissions and 18 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Tuesday.

    A total of 152 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Monday, and 4,637 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 224,398, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

  12. Moses Herzog

    Doesn’t this go back to the age old Republican stratagem “accuse your opponents of the same crimes/sins you commit??

    Richard Nixon never tried anything this egregious. Yet donald trump walks around free because judges, DAs, AGs, and legal jurisdictions are too cowardly to prosecute this guy?? Again, when judges/ADs/AGs decide they’re going to sit on very obvious and blatant crimes, they’re setting up a precedent for the future when Presidents and candidates for the Presidency can do ANYTHING they want. That’s the system DAs/AGs/ and federal judges are setting up as “adult” children worry about abortion in a world where latex condoms have been available since the 1920s. Can someone PLEASE tell these women about Latex condoms and then we can “move on” and see if we can get courts to worry about criminals like donald trump wandering around living off a life of grift, breaking elections laws, and undermining democracy??

    1. Barkley Rosser


      Womwn are getting pregnant and wanting abortions because they do not know about latex condoms? How out of it are you? Why do you think there is a debate about exceptions for rape and incest. Can a woman demand that a relative who is raping her put on a condom of any sort?

      No wonder you have problems with women.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      TW, for better or worse, the abortion issue is more likely than guns or the Jan. 6 committee hearings to be the issue that helps Dems hold on to a house or two of Congress this fall, if they can, especially if inflation continues to rampage. I would not sneer at women being upset about it. Those young women who stayed home in 2016 because Hillary reminded them of their mothers might actually get out and vote if Roe v. Wade gets overturned.

      BTW, it is not just rape and incest that can lead to unwanted pregnancies even when women know about latex condoms. Mistakes can happen. Condoms can have holes in them, and more frequently they can fall off or at least enough so as to lead to an unwanted pregnancy. But I guess I am not surprised you do not know about such things, Moses.

  13. Moses Herzog

    Here is a woman who used to carpet bomb Arizona television with campaign ads of herself brandishing a gun:

    Isn’t it “otherworldly weird” how getting shot in the face or head changes people’s outlook on these things?? Well now…… , I say NOW…… Giffords’s not quite certain about the efficacy of a guns worshipping society. Still hasn’t changed her Republican colleagues’ feelings about it. As long as they can “vet” and/or background check EVERYONE who goes to Republicans’ 3 Townhall meetings they give every 20 years, they can live with Giffords walking around like she’s got ALS. That’s quite alright with Republicans. They got that NRA money to survive the next election.

  14. Moses Herzog

    Chucky Schumer, doing his Republican Lite tap dance again:

    How many seniors votes could Democrats capture by running campaign adverts saying “We did what Republicans promised you for YEARS, Democrats got it done!!!! Your insulin prices are not going to empty your bank account!!!” But Chucky Schumer would rather suck on his thumb. If only Chuckie could figure out when to applause during State of the Union addresses, then maybe he could figure out what his party is supposed to offer voters that Republicans don’t. It’s tough for Chuckie, he has these little Rosser “cognitive challenges”.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      You mean like correcting your ridiculously erroneous remarks about the geography of Eastern Europe? Oh, I know, informing people here about a speech by Putin that was being seriously reported and believed in Russia as well as in the Ukrainian president’s office before it was reported here in the English language media. Yeah, that was a big slip on my part, almost as bad as my disbelieving the CIA forecast that Kyiv would fall within three days after an invasion, which you believed.

      Come on, Moses, you do not have much to stand on here, other than stuff where you have made at least as big of a fool of yourself as I have, and most of the time a much worse one. Want to go on a few more times about how an even distribution across a gene is the same as one across a population?

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Barkley “Cute Chin Hairs” Rosser
        You or Menzie or anyone can show the link where I “made erroneous remarks about Europe’s geography”. Sadly for you, that comment doesn’t exist and besides that, sadly for you, you’re the only PhD in America too dumb to be able to copy/paste permalinks. Sucks being you.

        There are multiple links where you said Russian troops were “only doing exercises” in Belarus and a link where you forcefully stated Putin would not invade Ukraine. Would you like me to list those permalinks again in this thread?? I’m happy to appease you if you want those links listed for readers. Sucks being you again.

        You know Junior, even Putin’s trolls on this blog can copy/paste web links. Don’t let that make you feel bad, ok??

        1. Moses Herzog

          BTW, I have actually been kind and sparing in my remarks to Barkley, a comment that even might cause Menzie to turn his head sideways. But let me ask Menzie and the general reader s simple questio:. Do you remember comments Barkley made about Kherson??~~basically at the very beginning of the war in late February, when it was FINALLY dawning on Barkley there would be a war (this was basically after the fact, when ammunitions and artillery were already starting). I ask Menzie now, to imagine me posting Barkley’s comments on Kherson, juxtaposed with video of the city of Kherson now, along with Kherson residents being injured and begging for help from the west. But this idiot narcissist in Harrisonburg thinks he’s being picked on. I have been sparing in my remarks. But if Barkley feels he wants to push this on, I can put up his remarks on Kherson with the video.

          Kind of morbid but we can “go there” if Barkley enjoys the optics here. This is the type stuff CNN wouldn’t put up, but I have links from RFE and I can put a WARNING up for readers before they click the link.

          1. Barkley Rosser


            I think you are remembering my comments about Kharkiv, which came on the day of the invasion. We have already been over that a few times, and I have nothing to be ashamed about. Stand by what I posted.

            I said nothing about Kherson. You are the one losing it and misremembering things. You cannot even remember that you were putting Russian troops in “south east Romania” and in the same thread you falsely claimed that Menzie had called me a “dumb ass,” something he had to correct you on.

            Do you really want Menzie adjudicating anything more on this?

          2. Moses Herzog

            Oh!!! That’s right!!! Kharkiv, not Kherson!!! I’m glad you remembered Barkley!!!! We need to call your doctor and tell him the good news you’re regressing more slowly. Is your early onset dementia cured??

            February 23 Barkley Rosser said: “According to a long story in today’s WaPo, people there [ Kharkiv ] are pretty calm, although according to you they should be running around freaking out. It may be that they are all a bunch of fools. But in fact I suspect another element of this is that because the city is dominated by ethnic Russians, they figure that life will go back to normal if they get conquered. But all accounts they do not support Putin or an invasion. But if it happens, they will move on.”

            I posted this video of Kharkiv only 5 days after Barkley Rosser said the above about Kharkiv:

            For extra measure, so Dumbo in Harrisonburg gets the point (Barkley is always slow to the take when being shown to be an A$$-hat) Here’s more footage of “ethnic Russians” in Kharkiv from April:

            Well, Dr. Rosser is right again, life has “gone back to normal” in Kharkiv, and “they will move on”. Dr. Rosser sure knows Russia well, aye folks?? He told us he’s “an expert on Russia” and one could hardly doubt it after his foresight in Kharkiv. Dr. Rosser knew Kharkiv residents would all be having belly-laughs after the invasion and I’ll be damned if Barkley didn’t work magic with his crystal ball again.

          3. Barkley Rosser


            The comment about “going back to normal” referred to what might happen if Russia conquered Kharkiv. Russia did not conquer Kharkiv, even though it is very close to the Russian border and not too far from the separatist republics. What might have been the case if it had been conquered can be seen by what is going on in Kherson and Melitopol, where there have been reported to be some opposition but mostly life is in fact somewhat “back to normal” as the places are apparently having Russian language street names and money and so on imposed on them. I do not think most of the populations in them are all that happy about this, but there is not massive resistance going on in these predominantly Russian speaking cities.

            As it is, and you have posted this stuff before several times, I continue to stand by what I posted then, which reported what was in a WsPo article. Again, I note I posted that it said the people in Kharkiv “do not support Putin or an invasion,” which was accurate and is in what you have reposted here with all your usual idiotic emoboldening, as if people here are unable to read. I am glad that they have managed to resist being conquered, although sorry that there has been so much damage in Kharkiv.

            This is about the fourth or so time you have dredged this up. Do you think anybody is interested? There is nothing incorrect in what is in it. You, of course, left off the rest of the comment that contrasted Kharkiv with Lviv and also Kyiv, where Ukrainian is spoken and which are both known to be more anti-Russian and Ukrainian nationalist, especially Lviv. These are facts, although perhaps you do not know them, not seeming to be able to keep Kharkiv and Kherson straight, even as you continue to accuse me of dementia. How many more bloopers are you going to commit here with all these redredgings up of your failed attempts to show me saying incorrect things?

            Oh, and are you going to also repost the stuff about what was going on at the actual beginning of the invasion in Kyiv and Kharkiv that I reported while watching them live on TV? Just to remind everybody, people clearly freaked out more rapidly in Kyiv, almost immediately getting off the streets as the bomb sounds started to happen, whereas people continued to behave normally for quite a much longer time in Kharkiv. These are simply facts and consistent with what I wrote earlier that you somehow think is a big embarrassment. Yes, people in Kharkiv did eventually respond and have successfully defended their city from invasion, for which I congratulate them. But if they had been conquered, the Russians would have found them easier to impose rule on than the people in either Kyiv or Lviv. Do you want to claim otherwise, Moses? Are you that ignorant or stupid? It is believable, given how you somehow thought it was me who was messing up geography in south east Romania, not to mention claiming I had posted all sorts of things about Kherson that I had not.

            Maybe somebody who likes you will intervene here to point out to you how big of a fool you are making of yourself with all this stuff and should stop wasting everybody’s time as well as making such a fool of yourself? Really, again, Moses, time to move on.

        2. Barkley Rosser

          Sorry, Moses, but I have too much actual work to do to waste time dredging through old posts here they way you like to do to establish that you are lying through your teeth. My line repeatedly here and in other locations was that Putin was almost certainly going to do “something.” The question was what. My usual theory, and what I was still expecting right up to the moment he invaded on Feb. 24, was an invasion of the Donbas coming out of the separatist republics using troops that were nominally theirs, even if in fact they would be mostly Russian. This was something that might have avoided him having Russia face additional sanctions, or not the many that it is. It also seemed to be tied to what had been the ongoing discussions and complaints between Russia and Ukraine, tied to the more less failed Minsk Accords, which were all about Donbas. I indeed expected Putin to recognize those republics, with that being grounds for them to expand their territories of control. Indeed, this seems to be the fallback Plan B that he is doing, although he has managed to grab a chunk of southern Ukraine, including the cities of kherson and Melitopol, using troops that came out of Crimea. These were not the ones in Belarus, which were involved in the failed effort to take Kyiv.

          I had been warning for a long time, again in various locations, that Putin was isolated and paying attention to a narrow set of extreme nationalist advisers who were taken with the writings of the Eurasianist fanatic, Alexander Dugin. But he had moved troops to the border and made threats of various sorts in the past, but then did not invade. The Ukrainians were looking at that past conduct when they discounted that the troops in Belarus might participate in an invasion as the CIA was predicting.. Indeed, prior to Putin making this loud public pronouncement in Russia that many Russians, including apparently troops in Belarus themselves, believed that they would be moved back to Russia after the exercises were over, I was mostly sounding a pessimistic tone, although more in expectation of this smaller attack into Donbas, not a full scale one, which looked loony. In fact at one point not too long before the invasion, Tyler Cowen on Marginal Revolution, actually had a post quoting my warnings about Putin’s isolation and writing of an essay last July denouncing even the right of Ukraine to exist, and labeling me as an especially well informed expert on Russia (along with my wife). All sorts of his commenters denounced me in perfervid terms for these pessimistic observations there, almost matching your insane frenzies.

          Anyway, if you keep insisting that somehow you did not make a completely inaccurate and moronic claim here about the troops actually located in Transniestria, which you claimed were in southwest Romania or something like that, with you identifying them with those in Belarus and thus threatening to invade Ukraine, I might have to go digging around to find it. But you did make such an ignorant remark, Moses. Do you really want to humiliate yourself by pushing on that matter? I really do not want to waste time digging it up, but if you have lost your effing mind so badly that you think i am the one who was making inaccurate comments about eastern European geography, I might have to waste my time with this scheiss. Gag, you are just so worthless with your ever increasing outright lies.

          1. Barkley Rosser


            So, I have wasted my time. It was on Feb. 13 in a thread on “Risk and Uncertainty before the Open,” and it was “southeast Romania” where you had the troops, although when you said it you actually admitted that you were not sure what you were talking about and that maybe it was the “breakaway republic of Moldova,” which was also an absurdity, Moldova having “broken away” from Romania like in WW II. I corrected you on this stuff at the time, but you seem to have forgotten it.

            It was on that thread where, shortly after you made your blooper about “southeast Romania” that I indeed made the statement you have endlessly repeated about how there would be “no invasion.” However, almost immediately after that in the next several threads I backed off that as it became clear that in fact the Russian troops were not going to leave Belarus and returned to contemplating all sorts of possible invasion scenarios, although mostly claiming it most likely Putin would try to expand the territories of the separatist republics.

            I also note that in that same thread, the one where you talked about the Russian troops supposedly in southeast Romania, that you claimed that Menzie had called me a “dumb ass,: something that he proceeded to deny. On that same thread. Really. Pretty

            Do you realize how badly you have been distorting and lying about all this? Going back and looking at it is pretty nauseating. There were several other completely false claims you made that you were outed on, which I shall not bring up further here, although as with the Russian troops in southeast Romania bit, you probably have a false memories about what was actually said on much of it.

          2. Moses Herzog

            It’s not my fault you get all your info from…. “close relatives” (I feel incredibly sad for those relatives and actually have empathy to them, mainly because they put up with YOU ) who didn’t inform you that there were/are Russian troops in the Moldova area, And you are so G*ddamned DUMB you think because I mentioned those Russian soldiers in Moldova that i “mixed them up” with the Russian soldiers that were in southern Belarus. If you weren’t so focused on your own F*cking navel 24/7 you would have known that.


            I’m adding this last link dated 2016, just to show you how long they have been in Moldova. They have been stationed there like FOREVER, before 2016 even and NEVER left from that 2016 date. If you weren’t such an imbecile, playing with lint in your navel all day, not bothering to READ anything, you’d have known that:

          3. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley
            I know…. I know…… I totally get it, your duties as “honorary editor” are swamping you. That’s why you can only respond to guys named Anonymous only about 5 times inside any given hour.

          4. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Moses Herzog: I see Dr. Rosser is listed as coeditor of Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. Insofar as I am aware, a coeditorship is “real” work (i.e., I am one of 3 coeditors of JIMF, and it burns up tons of time).

          5. Moses Herzog

            Let me do Barkley the favor since Barkley is apparently too stupid to handle links. Here is the comment in its entirety, along with the permalink:
            “This seems like a pretty good graphic of where Russian troops are around Ukraine. Kind of where you might guess.

            Interesting Belarus has no compunction letting Russian troops squat on the southern portion of their land, and even arguably southeast Romania. I’m not sure if that’s technically Romania, it looks like maybe a military port location. But for all intents and purposes that is southeast Romania. If you Google it they call it “the breakaway Republic of Moldova”, so what do I know?? Apparently not much.”

            The point I was making, although the sentence was probably poorly worded, is that there were not only Russian soldiers squatting on land in far south Belarus in a preparatory move for war, but that the area where the Russian soldiers were squatting in Moldova was also not technically Russian land, and so it was “interesting” (“interesting” here being sarcastic understatement). i.e. why would Russian soldiers being hanging out in eastern Moldova if not as preparatory logistics for war in Ukraine?? (I have to state this is a RHETORICAL question, because Barkley is too dumb and thinks I’m still discussing Belarus now) I thought most people who knew there were Russian soldiers in east Moldova (which those PAYING ATTENTION knew) they would understand what I was saying. But Barkley says I was saying Moldova is Belarus–if you buy that, fine. I have a university degree and according to Barkley I can’t read a map of Europe. And I think “Moldova is Belarus”–if the typical reader of Econbrowser deduces that from my above comment, fine. /sarc

          6. Moses Herzog

            Here is what Barkley Rosser had to say about Russian invasion of Ukraine, in case anyone missed it, this was less than 10 days before Russia invaded Ukraine. Mass murder and war in Ukraine started less than 10 days after Barkley Rosser said the following…….
            “Do keep in mind I am the one here with access to Russian media. That has now been blaring for several days that the troops will go home after the exercises are done, and exercises are exactly what they are doing now. This has more recently been reinforced by statements from Putin in press conferences, such as the one just held after the visit of German Chancellor Scholze.

            There is not going to be an invasion, even if some of the details of what Zelensky and Ukraine may agree to are not fully settled, and Victoria Nuland has been shooting her mouth off too much, somebody I wish was not part of this administration.”

            The man is obviously an expert on Russia. Who could argue that?? I’ll save his comments on the city of Kherson being a bastion of calm for another day.

          7. Barkley Rosser


            You keep getting it all messed up with this stuff about these troops, somehow trying to claim I was the one who was wrong when it was you making a complete fool of yourself. I was the one who told you that the troops that you thought were part of the Belarusan exercises in “south east Romania” had been in Transniestria for 30 years, not you explaining that to any of us. You did not know what you were talking about, and I had to explain it to you.

            I note that for all you palavering about those troops, they have done exactly what I said they would: nothing. They are still sitting there in Transniestria, which you never mentioned in your babbling about “south east Romania.”

            As it is, on looking at the several threads in the period before the invasion I am struck by how very silly a lot of commenters here look, especially our Putin troll gang. I basically made one mistake, which you have endlessly repeated here. But in fact I only held that view for a few days and retracted it the minute I heard Lukashenka was demanding the Russian troops stay to defend Belarus from a supposed possible invasion from Ukraine., that about a week before the invasion I reverted to discussing the possibility those troops might be used in a full-scale invasion, recognizing they might well be. There are far more comments along those lines prior to the invasion than the handful you repeatedly cite. Aside from those handful of comments, pretty much everything else I posted was accurate, with you making one stupid and erroneous statement after another, several of which I shall not revisit, unless you are dumb enough to bring them up like you did with the south east Romania mistake of yours, which you somehow keep trying to turn into a mistake by me not you. It was you, you idiot, who was wrong on that matter..

            As it is, even your correct argument that the troops in Belarus would invade Ukraine was based on a stupid and ignorant argument. You kept rhetorically asking “What else could they be doing there?” Well, as a matter of fact a major reason the Ukrainians did not believe Putin would invade from there, something you keep ignoring in all your blunderbussing here, was that Putin had moved troops to the border of Ukraine several times previously and made nasty threats, only to withdraw. It was not at all ridiculous as you claim to think that he might have been doing the same thing again as he had done previously. You were right about the invasion, but your argument for it was ignorant and stupid.

            Indeed, I remind you that with your goo goo CIA is right view on this you were wrong about what would happen after such an invasion, the possibility of which was clearly discussed at length with me granting that it could happen, although you now want to pretend I did not take such a view, focusing on the handful of days when I though it would not. Indeed, that was the basis of the big embassy debate, one of the few times ever that you actually got 2slugbaits to agree with you against me. Too bad both of you were wrong, although he made a not completely stupid argument, that moving the embassy might convince some Americans they needed to get out and could not count on the embassy getting them out if there was an invasion. But the only places Americans needed that advice have turned out to be Kherson, about which I said noting prior to the invasion, and Melitopol, neither of which were expected to be invaded and neither of which I think had all that many Americans. Oh, and Mariuopol, of course, although there was more time to get out of there.

            Really, Moses, I think most people here are getting really tired of you reminding people of my one brief error on all this as well as your increasingly ludicrous efforts to somehow claim I made other erroneous statements when I did not, even worse to claim I made errors that it was you who that was making them, notably this silliness about troops in south east Romania, which you made flamingly false accusations in connection with. Do you want to try claiming again that Menzie called me a “dumb ass” so that he will have to actually intervene and tell you that you are wrong again?

            Time to move on, Moses, really.

          8. Moses Herzog

            @ Professor Chinn
            I see about 7 people listed here as co-editors. And I do not see Barkley’s name. He is on the “Honorary” list.

            I am assuming there IS a difference between current co-editors’ duties and “Honorary” editors, or why make the distinction?? I am wagering that those listed as co-editors would tell you there is most definitely a distinction in the weight of the duties. I point this out respectfully, and am very happy to be educated on the matter.

            I have respect for people who are editors at journals. The same as I have respect for people who attain university degrees. I’ll tell you a group I have zero respect for~~people who get “honorary” degrees who never darkened the door of a 4-year certified Uni. Is that the same type deal?? I don’t know. Again, happy to be edified on what the duties of an “Honorary” Editor are. And I mean real, “spelled out” duties, not “Well Joe and Jim brought this down for me to look at over my granny spectacles the other day, and…… “

          9. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Moses Herzog: Apologies, I misread the cv which indicates “2011” (and not “2011-” as I assumed) as coeditor. Well, I’ll let Dr. Rosser speak for himself – although he is an editor for New Palgrave (in which I have published a couple pieces, but under Steve Durlauf’s tenure as coeditor).

          10. Moses Herzog

            @ Menzie
            No need to apologize Professor Chinn, (I always like to call you Menzie, as in all seriousness I consider you my “internet friend”, if you need any more clues on my social/emotional maturity level). In fact, you won’t believe it, but I feel a decent amount of shame for dragging you into this goofball argument. I don’t consider myself above this, but in fact I feel you are quite above it. I feel like (as regards Rosser) I am arguing with Amber Heard, who can’t even give ground on the most obvious of errors on the witness stand. But like Johnny Depp, I feel I just cannot “let it go”.

          11. Moses Herzog

            “Really, Moses, I think most people here are getting really tired of you reminding people of my one brief error on all this as well as your increasingly ludicrous efforts to somehow claim I made other erroneous statements when I did not, ”

            …….. “Time to move on, Moses, really.”

            Dr. Rosser, I’m going to make this as summarized/abbreviated an explanation for you as possible. You have a serious personal problem, especially at your age, that is, like a small child, you are unable to admit when you are wrong. As long as I view this to be the case, I am going to be like a bull terrier is to a barn rat on you. And that’s just the way it’s going to be.

          12. Barkley Rosser


            Oh wow, you are even more ignorant than I thought, not to mention stupid. It is pointed out that you made a major mistake, and what do you do? You double down and make it even more strongly even though I explained all this to you, and you made completely incorrect and idiotic remarks not only with emboldening but capitlalizations.

            NO, MORON, THE RUSSIAN TROOPS IN TRANSNIESTRIA WERE NOT AND ARE NOT THERE AS “PREPARATION FOR LOGISTICS FOR AN INVASION OF UKRAINE”!!!!!!!! As I have now explained twice already, they have been theee for 30 years to defend the pro-Russian separatist republic of Transniestria, which sseceded from Moldova but is not recognized by anybody other than Russia and a few other similar such “states.” As I predicted they have remained there and NOT participated in invading Ukraine, although they could perhaps have helped with an attack on nearby Odesa. But they have stayed where they have been for the last 30 years. You simply could not be more wrong, Moses. They had nothing to do with the troops in Belarus, much less with Belarus itself at all. Gag. You just keep making a bigger and bigger fool of yourself.

            As for me being an “honorary editor,” I happen to be that for several journals. But, going beyond Menzie, I am the current actual editor of the Review of Behavioral Economics, which I founded, and which is now in the top 11.9% of economics journals according to the RePec recursive discounted impact factor measure. I am also a coeditor of the fourth edition of the New Palgrave Dictionary. I was editor of JEBO from 2001-2010. Note, that for both ROBE and JEBO I am and was Editor, not just a coeditor.

            You really need to get off this stuff, MOses. You just keep digging yourself deeper and deeper in. YOu are in danger of disappearing into magma.

          13. Barkley Rosser

            On your final comment, Moses, you are the one who keeps making false accusations, although I have admitted having been wrong for a few days about a week before it about whether or not there would be full scale invasion of Ukraine. Beyond that, you have been the one making one erroneous claim or misrepresentation after another, losing count of all of them, and you keep piling them on here, more every minute it seems. You can’t seem to get any of this straight at all, even as you pile on with false accusations about my professional activities.

            Just to be more fully clear about my editorships. I am currently an Honorary Editor at JEBO where I was previously Editor, sitting above 5 coeditors. I am Editor of ROBE as well as the New Palgrave Dictionary, which both Menzie and Jim Hamilton have pieces in, along with nearly 40 Nobel Prize winners. I am also an Honorary editor on several other journals as well as an associate editor on yet more, not going to list them all, they are in my cv, which is publicly available on my website. I

            remind you that you were invited to participate in the seminar I hosted via Zoom with Menzie as well as the one with Nobel Prize winner, Vernon Smith, where you could have informed everybody about my incipient dementia, but you chickened out because you thought that somehow I might learn your very important true identity. Instead you make these accusations here, even while confusing Kherson and Kharkiv, not to mention continuing to somehow think that the Russian troops you thought were in south east Romania were somehow tied to the ones in Belarus and ready to invade Ukraine, not to mention falsely claiming that I do not edit anything.

            I probably should not point this out, but while I was editing JEBO, it was ahead of JIMF in RePec recursive discounted impact factor ranking, usually running in the 30s, although by one measure actually getting as high as 19th among all econ journals. It has fallen lower since I stopped editing it at the end of 2010, and it is now lower than the JIMF on that measure, the journal that Menzie coedits.

            You really need to stop digging this hole, get out of it, and move on.

          14. Barkley Rosser


            Good lord, you are now comparing yourself to Johnny Depp and me to Amber Heard? That is quite telling. Yes, he won his jury trial in VA and is more popular than she is, but a judge in UK ruled in her favor that 12 out of 14 alleged physical attacks by him on her did happen, and although the jury seems to have mostly ignored it, she did present evidence, both photos and a witness in the form of her makeup artist, that she appeared multiple times with bruises on her face. But then, what do we expect from someobdy who sneers at women worrying about losing the right to have an abortion because, wow, latex condoms are available?

            As for my being not busy, I just submitted my annual report. I published three articles and two book chapters this past year, with several more in the pipeline moving forward. Not only do I edit the Review of Behavioral Economics and coedit the New Palgrave dictionary, but I am president of a multidisci0plinary academic society and am in the midst of organizing its annual conference. I am slso the chair of the executive committee of yet another academic society. There is a lot more, actually, but this will do. So, yes, I am very busy.

  15. pgl

    Whenever Joel Osteen shows up on my TV, I change the channel. But my this sermon really got interesting:

    Lakewood Church-goers were surprised by a nearly-nude, pro-choice protest in the middle of service on Sunday. As Pastor Joel Osteen began preaching, three women stood up, stripped down to their underwear and shouted “my body, my choice!” and “overturn Roe, hell no!” The activists are members of Austin-based Rise Up 4 Abortion Rights. The organization posted video of the moment on Twitter and TikTok, where the footage has garnered thousands of views.

    1. Moses Herzog

      I’m glad it wasn’t 3 men taking their clothes off. It could have been a threat to Barkley’s “body positivity” and I really hate to see that happen. Men who strip in protest should eat more beforehand, dress in clothes with vertical lines, and kind of slovenly fitted so other men don’t feel their “body positivity” threatened. This is important, about looking very crappy, or other men will feel “less than”…… er something……. Maybe Barkley and I could protest strip together at some major event?? If we two protest stripped it could make all men feel better about their “body image”. I could protest the fact donald trump hasn’t been criminally prosecuted yet, and Barkley can protest that Putin and the Kremlin lied to him that Russian soldiers were on the southern border of Belarus to celebrate Svetlana Alexievich’s birthday.

      Fun to be had by all, ONLY OPEN TO PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN INVITED.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        I have no idea what you are talking about here, Modes. You are really losing it.

        And, sorry, no, it is not “important.” It is incoherently dumb.

        1. Moses Herzog

          ooooooohhh man, that was the best laugh I had all day. And I had 3-4 good ones today. That’s the problem with having an overinflated sense of yourself, or an overinflated ego Barkley. You lose the ability to laugh at yourself. I wanna see you shake wearing nothing but those pretentious chin hairs Barkley.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            I am perfectly able to laugh at myself, but this from you is just getting sicker and sicker by the minute. Are you getting psychiatric help yet, Moses?

            I also find it weird to the point of disturbing that you seem to lack support for women being upset about the impending overturning of Roe v Wade. I get it that you do not have a woman in your life, much less any children, so you can fantasize that now that latex condoms exist there should be no problems with this. But, most others here get that this is a very serious matter, even if you want to make sick jokes about it.

          2. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            I am very hopeful that JEBO journal moves you back to co-editor from historical editor. This historical editor stuff leaves you with way too much time on your hands. I think if you can get your co-editor status back, Putin may phone you directly to tell you which national border his soldiers will be playing Limbo and Pictionary at next. After your foresight about the Russian soldiers just playing party games in far south Belarus, this could possibly get you on TV. Just imagine them running video in the background behind a close-up of your face of large apartment buildings in Kharkiv being cluster-bombed as you tell viewers “life in Kharkiv has gone back to normal” and “Kharkiv residents will move on, because they are ‘ethnic Russians’ “.

            It’s going to be heady times for you Barkley as CNN’s new “Russian Military Expert”, I can feel it. You might even feel you are being more constructive with your life than when making up negative attributes about others, because they advance the efficacy of latex condoms on blogs as a way to avoid killing babies, and even avoid risking new mothers’ health.

            I know for you, finding some relevance in this world is important. I’m pulling for you Barkley.

          3. Barkley Rosser


            I am Honorary Editor at JEBO, not “Historical Editor.” I am still an actual current journal editor, of the Review of Behavioral Economics.

            As for who needs to make a speech, I am looking forward to seeing you explaining on TV how South Belarus is actually located in south east Romania, how Kharkiv is actually Kherson, and how a fetus is actually a baby.

    1. Barkley Rosser


      Wow, you really are losing it with this stuff. Sorry, but it has been a few years since I wore my leather pants. Offhand, I am curious why you think there is anything remotely in common between me and this Mile fanatical crackpot. Will you be comparing me to mass murderers any minute now? I realize you have been falling on your face pretty badly in your recent attempts to somehow smear me, but this is really getting totally ridiculous.

  16. Barkley Rosser

    So, this is off-topic, but I thought I would play my “Russia expert” game of reporting to this audience things going on in the Russian media that have not yet been reported in the English language media (and may not get reported in it at all).

    So, the latest development over the last few days is that the Russian media has taken to providing daily reports on the health of Putin. Guess what? Every day the fearless leader is healthy!!!

    Needless to say, that “news,” which may be false coverups to maintain morale, is not the point. The point is that they feel they need now to report on it, which they were not doing before. I do not know what his health is, but this suggests there is enough buzz about it going on over there they feel they need to report on it. This looks like one of those smoke and fire stories, with these good health reports the smoke. What the fire is, well, I guess we shall have to wait and see.

    But, for better or worse, that is the latest odd development in the Russian media.

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ Barkley Rosser
      The world has changed since you were 22 years old Junior. This can be done with nearly any Russian website under the sun. Probably some much better than Pravda:

      Russian propaganda is not hard to find Junior. That is why it is called propaganda~~it is a tool used to manipulate people, and therefor, not “hidden”, as your dysfunctional brain apparently inferred to you. If you spent less time cleaning bugs out of your chin hairs you’d be opened up to a whole new world, and not just getting “inside information” from close relatives. You might even find the courage to stick to your guns on Putin’s “great health” instead of hedging less than 2 weeks after you told us Putin was ready for Olympics Judo in Paris.

      1. Barkley Rosser


        More completely losing it here, you are. Gag. You suggest that I somehow took a position on Putin’s health here. Sorry, I did not. All I have done is tell people here something they did not know, namely that the Russian media is now talking about it, even if what they are saying is that it is OK. I have suggested that this suggests it is not, although you are clearly so effing stupid you could not figure that out.

        Yeah, one can find delayed translations of some Russian media links, but not all. I continue to have access to ones you do not have in current time. I would note that this translation from Pravda you provided did not happen to include the story I told. Did you notice that? Do you think that your providing this particular translation means that the story I told is false? If you think that you are even stupider than you appeared to be above. You have been publicly letting your brain fall out of your head onto the siidewalk for you step on yet again.

        I remind folks that I have already noted here that there have been reports from some US intel agencies that Putin has had cancer surgery, even as other US intel agencies, including the one you like, Moses, the CIA, have not been part of those reports, and others have outright denied these reports are true. I did not pass judgment on those reports, noting I do not have inside information on this. In any case, my reporting that Russian media is now reporting on Putin’s health suggests that there is probably something to some of these stories, although we do not know exactly what, even as the news reports claim he is just fine.

        You have added nothing useful at all to this issue, Moses, nothing. What a worthless obsessed idiot.

        So, I pass on information to people here that they would not know otherwise and that is relevant to matters that have been discussed previously. Your reaction is to a) claim I am taking a position on the news I clearly said I was not (that Putin is actually healthy), and b) suggested it was not useful because presumably people can find some translations of some Russian media sources (delayed I note), even when the one you linked to said nothing about the matter I reported on.

          1. Barkley Rosser


            Does this mean that you agree with Moses that one can read any and all Russian media in translation right on time in English? Or does it mean that you deny that at least parts of Russian media are now regularly reporting on Putin’s health and claiming that it is good? Or do you not know what is the meaning of your stopping reading other than you seem to be mostly a total idiot who believes all kinds of Putin propaganda that you like to repeat here?

          2. Barkley Rosser


            I did at one point think you were actually Russian, but now accept that you are just a very dumb and poorly informed American. So, no, you are not yourself following any Russian media in Russian, just repeating their propaganda in English that comes your way.

          3. Moses Herzog

            This is a moral outrage. A man named Anonymous attacking Barkley online. I’m strip protesting this. $149 a ticket (I can’t have Hillary speeches commanding higher prices than my body, it would utterly destroy my “body positivity”…. er something…..). Similar to the Depp/Heard trial I foresee long lines here. You’ll have to pick up a wristband at 1:00am on the morning of my protest strip in order to attend, and there will be no loitering on public sidewalks before the event.

        1. 2slugbaits

          Barkely Rosser Well, who knows if there’s anything to those reports, but if true they might explain some of Putin’s recent behavior. It could explain why you never see Putin walking. It might explain his extreme fear of catching COVID. Remember, this is a guy who used to pride himself on his physical courage. And it might explain why Putin felt the urgency of invading Ukraine. He seems obsessed with placing himself alongside the pantheon of past Russian leaders with the sobriquet “the Great.” He might have felt that time was running out for his chance to leave a glorious mark on Russian history.

          1. Barkley Rosser


            I just saw a report that he has put off making his usual annual “call-in” with the Russian people, although this may not have anything to do with any health problems and simply reflect that he does not want to have to answer any embarrassing questions that somebody might manage to get in about the current “special operation.”

          2. Barkley Rosser

            At the danger again of rattling Moses in his asylum chamber, I shall pass on the latest from Russia on Putin’s health. Two items, one the current widespread gossip, the other a more informed observation by somebody I know.

            The first is that apparently there is now a widespread rumor in Russia that Putin has pancreatic cancer. Apparently what triggered this rumor was his appearing publicly with his two legal daughters and his three grandchildren by them, something he has never done before. A bunch of people are claiming this means he is in serious health trouble.

            The more informed comment claims that Putin may not be well informed about his own health situation. How can this be? It is that his high level of paranoia has led him to hire doctors who tell him what he wants to hear and who are afraid to tell him bad news. This is parallel to what may have gone on before the invasion when intel and military people told him what he wanted to hear, even though they knew better or should have. This source does not have a view on what it is he has or might have, just that he may not be receiving accurate informartion about his own health.

          3. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            So your “inside source” on Putin’s health says “Who knows??”. WOW, thanks “Russian expert”, you’ve astounded us all once more with your “deep state” take. At least you’ve learned to cover your bets when making things up so as not to look like so much of an A$$ later on. Good on you.

            Let us know when all the large apartment buildings in Kharkiv have been cluster-bombed so we can have a time frame on “ethnic Russians” “life will go back to normal”.

          4. Barkley Rosser


            Wow you are so effed up. Here I provide actual inside info none of you can get otherwise, and you have to snipe.

            That the more informed person did not speculate on what Putin might have is in fact a sign that he is careful about what he says and knowledgeable. I note that he is actually a physician. The important thing I reported from him is that Putin may not be getting accurate information from his physicians because they are afraid of him. This is serious stuff nobody else has pointed out so far. Do you have a useful comment on that?

            As for Kharkiv, you are simply misrepresenting my remarks yet again, you serial liar. My comments about “returning to normal” applied to if Kharkiv had been conquered, and although it was not speeled out, conquered easily as happened with Kherson, which you managed to mix up with Kharkiv. As it is, and has already been pointed out several time, Kharkiv has not been conquered, so the conditions for what I said have not occurred. But, I also note that in Kherson, while we get reports of people disappearing and not happy, things are largely semi-normal under the increasing rule.

            BTW, I bet you pronounce the name of Kherson as “Curson,” chuckle, you are so well informed.

            In the meantime, it would be appropriate if you would stop lying about what I say It is becoming almost as disgusting as the garbage dribbling out of JohnH.

  17. ltr

    June 5, 2022

    Shenzhou-14: The most important crewed mission for Tiangong construction
    By Yang Yuguang

    China has successfully launched the Shenzhou-14, a crewed spaceship with three astronauts Chen Dong, Cai Xuzhe and Liu Yang onboard. It’s the first manned mission during the construction phase of China’s Tiangong space station and the most important crewed mission in this phase.

    Concerning the crew transportation, the Shenzhou-14 mission is very similar to Shenzhou-13, both of which stayed or will stay in outer space for about half a year, docked to the Earth-facing docking port of the Tianhe-1 core module. Unlike those spacecrafts approaching the station from the front or the rear direction, the Shenzhou-14 will dock to its nadir port, which is more difficult because the relative positions of both spacecrafts are essentially unstable. Thanks to the Shenzhou-12 crew, they partially tested this procedure when they left the station and it has already become very practical for the country.

    Except for those features similar to Shenzhou-12/13 missions, the role of Shenzhou-14 is remarkably different. For the Shenzhou-12 and Shenzhou-13 crews, the most important tasks were to test the technologies, which were critical and necessary for the construction and operations of the Tiangong Space Station. But for Shenzhou-14 crew, the most important task is to attend the whole construction procedures of Tiangong.

    In July, about one month after the Shenzhou-14 mission, China will launch the Wentian lab module from the Wenchang spacecraft launch site. The module and its launch vehicle, Long March-5B Y3 rocket has already arrived in Wenchang and is performing tests. The launch of this Wentian module will be another critical step for Tiangong construction.

    Although the rendezvous and docking technologies of China have been practical, it is a risky part of the whole flight. To ensure safe docking, we must have both automatic and manual docking capabilities and each can be recognized as backup measures of the other one….

    1. ltr

      What I am reminded about today, is just how advanced the technology developed about the Chinese international space station is. Technology that includes the singular ability to monitor near-surface wind patterns by satellite all along the route taken to transport the carrier rocket and capsule to the launch site. China, remember, was prevented from working on space exploration with NASA in 2011. There would be mutual scientific and engineering benefits in working on development projects with China:

      May 30, 2022

      The number of researchers with dual US–China affiliations is falling
      The decline might be another sign of politics affecting cross-country scientific collaborations.
      By Richard Van Noorden

      The number of scholars who declare affiliations in both China and the United States on research papers has dropped by more than 20% over the past 3 years, an analysis conducted for Nature has found. That slump seems to be part of a pattern of waning US–China collaboration that is starting to show up in research databases. The number of papers that were collaborations between authors in the United States and China — the world’s two largest research producers — also fell for the first time last year….

    2. ltr

      June 5, 2022

      China launches crewed mission to complete space station construction

      * China on Sunday launched the crewed spaceship Shenzhou-14, sending three astronauts to its space station combination for a six-month mission.
      * The trio will cooperate with the ground team to complete the assembly and construction of the Tiangong space station, developing it from a single-module structure into a national space laboratory with three modules — the core module Tianhe and two lab modules Wentian and Mengtian.
      * This is the 23rd flight mission since the approval and launch of the country’s manned space program, and the third crewed mission for China’s space station project.

      By Zhou Zhou, Quan Xiaoshu and Liu Yiwei

    1. macroduck


      I need to ask, why “cleqn” hydrogen, unless there is some alternative “dirty” source of hydrogen? The report cites availability of natural gas as on advantage to Texas in producing “clean hydrogen”. This is quite odd. Fracked natural gas is an extremely dirty source for hydrogen. I’m afraid his whole “clean” business is because the Texas hydrogen plan is actually quite harmful to the environment.

      The report also cites the wonders of Texas infrastructure as an advantage. I’m not an expert by any means, but my understanding is that hydrogen hass a more potent greenhouse effect than CO2 in the short run ( a decade or more), so that leaks are a serious problem for the use of current infrastructure in production, delivery and use of hydrogen as a fuel.

      The hydrocarbon industry loves hydrogen because hydrogen gives them an extended lease on the use of resources and capital they already own. Wolf in sheep’s clothing.

      1. baffling

        you have valid points. but I am pragmatic. the electric world will still require some sort of transportable energy source. hydrogen can fill that role. and it fits much better in the overall vision of an electric world. you can continue to use hydrogen as a combustion source. or it can be used in a fuel cell for direct electricity production. so it has some flexibility in that regard.

        you care correct, nat gas produced hydrogen is considered “blue” rather than “green”. therefore it is not necessarily clean. however, I would like to see an electric world enhanced by green hydrogen. but I am realistic enough to understand if we go green from the very beginning, it will be very difficult to incorporate hydrogen into the system at scale. I am happy to utilize any blue interest in pushing forward hydrogen infrastructure. we still will need pipelines, etc for its use. but as renewables drop in price, and green hydrogen production gets cheaper, I have no problem cutting off the blue source. it is not a long term solution.

        you may rightly call it a wolf in sheep’s clothing. I am willing to use them to get to the end game. we will continue to use natural gas for a while. why not make it build the future we want in the process?

  18. Anonymous

    today’s eia release:

    usa net exports @ ~.7 mbbl/day, down from ~2mbbl/day the last weekly report.

    commercial crude stock build ~2.1,

    while strategic reserve stock draw ~ 7 million barrels: a million a day per the president!

    slight build in distillate ~2.6 million (~109 million)

    ~.8 million draw on gasoline (~218 million).

    not large swings outside strat pet reserve @~519.3 million barrels.

    usa remains a net exporter!

  19. ltr

    June 8, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 67 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 67 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, with 44 linked to local transmissions and 23 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Wednesday.

    A total of 149 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Tuesday, and 4,025 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 224,465, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

  20. Bruce Hall

    More non-core CPI inflation:

    Some states are trying to absorb some of the results of Biden’s 17 months of hostility toward US produced fossil fuels (not Iran’s, Venezuela’s, or Saudi Arabia’s) to ease the pump price burden that disproportionately affects minorities.

    Michigan legislators had passed two tax relief plans earlier this year that ended up being vetoed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. One of them, from March, was a 27-cent per gallon tax suspension from April through the end of September, with those taxes going toward road maintenance. That measure failed in part due to a measure allowing it take effect immediately.

    The other was a $2.5 billion tax relief plan in March that would have lowered the income tax rate, provide increased deductions for senior citizens, and provided a $500 tax credit for each child under 19 a family has. A modified version of that proposal, which includes property tax credits for disabled veterans, had since been passed by the Legislature, with Whitmer not acting on it.

    But being a good Democrat proponent of growing government at any cost, Whitmer won’t use the budget surplus to temporarily reduce gasoline tax burdens. If you have a $3 billion budget surplus and a rainy day fund, do you increase the size and scope of the government or do you give the taxpayers a break? Apparently, it’s the former for Gov. Whitmer. Whitmer is proposing a $500 tax rebate that would come in the form of a check enclosed in a letter with her signature on it. Suspending gasoline taxes doesn’t carry the same political capital for her. She pulled the same stunt with the bloated Michigan Catastrophic Claims Association rebate which she required to come to automobile owners in the form of a check enclosed in a letter with her name on it. She would not allow a simple credit toward current insurance policy premiums because… no political capital for her.

    Never let a crisis go to waste. Another good Democrat once said that.

    “And when it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels when this is over,” said Biden.
    See, it’s good for you so don’t complain.


      Sorry Hall. Inflation is a elitist, corporate decision. Which you love. There is no inflation when corporate boards are replaced and then prices fall, maybe you’ll rethink your pro corporate anti American agenda. Next comes the financial elitist. Their destruction is America’s salvation.

    2. Macroduck

      Brucie! What a load of camel pies you have dropped here. Same old lies about Biden’s hostility to Climate-Change villains. Same old political tribalism. Who pays you for this dreck?

    3. 2slugbaits

      Bruce Hall Whitmer is proposing a $500 tax rebate that would come in the form of a check enclosed in a letter with her signature on it. Suspending gasoline taxes doesn’t carry the same political capital for her.

      This is a serious question. Did you ever take a course in either microeconomics or theory of the price? The downside of a tax rebate is that it would likely exacerbate inflationary pressures; i.e., what is known as an income effect. The upside is that it would likely support a substitution effect away from gasoline and diesel. Lowering the gas tax would have two downside effects; viz., it would increase inflationary pressures and discourage substitution away from gasoline and diesel. Lowering the gas tax is probably the single worst policy choice available, which is undoubtedly why you think it’s such a great idea. Lowering the gas tax increases demand for gasoline without doing anything to increase supply. So I’ll ask again. Did you ever take a course…even a basic 101 course in microeconomics?

  21. Bruce Hall

    Never let a crisis go to waste… continued.

    A top Biden official said Sunday that the global food shortage crisis would push farmers toward relying on more green energy.

    “Never let a crisis go to waste,” U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Chief Samantha Power told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “This Week.”

    Speaking of the global consequences of Russia’s war with Ukraine, the Biden official said that fertilizer shortages would provide farmers the opportunity to “hasten” their “transition” from fertilizer to more “natural” resources.

    “Fertilizer shortages are real now because Russia is a big exporter of fertilizer. Even though fertilizer is not sanctioned, less fertilizer is coming out of Russia,” she explained. “As a result we’re working with countries to think about natural solutions like manure [wait, weren’t cattle/cows bad for the planet?] and compost and this may hasten transitions that would have been in the interest of farmers to make eventually anyway. So never let a crisis go to waste.”

    Power added that the administration was still asking Congress to pass more relief. Last week, President Biden requested an additional $33 billion from Congress for military and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine.

    “But we really do need this financial support from the Congress to be able to meet emergency food needs, so we don’t see the cascading deadly effects of Russia’s war extend into Africa and beyond,” she said.

    President Biden’s Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm made similar remarks back in March, pushing for Congress to use this crisis to pass “clean energy” legislation and to “wean off” fossil fuels.

    “This crisis in Europe, and the crisis our allies are facing and the reduction of supply of natural gas and oil from Russia creates a moment that we should be acting,” she said at a clean energy summit.

    An entire administration with tin ears.

    1. pgl

      Quotes with no links. At least CoRev relies on duckduckgo for his blatant lies. Look dude – if you are campaigning for dumbest troll ever – relax as you are far ahead of CoRev here.

    2. pgl

      “An entire administration with tin ears.”

      Actually Brucie is playing the Tin Man in the redux of the Wizard of Oz. Except in this case the Tin Man has less brains than ever the Scare Crow.

  22. ltr–1aGW1cliixW/index.html

    June 8, 2022

    China ranks first in declared 5G patents in the world

    China owns nearly 40 percent of the standard essential patents for 5G technology, staying at the top of the world rankings, according to a new report by the China National Intellectual Property Administration (CNIPA).

    The country has entered a critical period of advancing large-scale applications of 5G technology almost three years after it greenlighted the commercial use of 5G in 2019, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said Monday.

    More than 210,000 standard-essential patents for 5G are declared worldwide at present, involving almost 47,000 patent families. China has declared 18,728 patent families, accounting for 39.9 percent of the world’s total, followed by the U.S. at 34.6 percent and South Korea at 9.2 percent, the CNIPA report said.

    A patent family is a collection of patent applications covering the same or similar technical content.

    Chinese tech company Huawei declared 6,583 patent families, accounting for 14 percent and taking the lead among the global applicants.

    In addition, the report also highlighted that among the top 15 patent applicants in the world, seven are Chinese companies, with two each from the U.S., Japan, Europe, and South Korea.

    Read More:

    China enters critical period of advancing large-scale 5G applications

  23. pgl

    “Some states are trying to absorb some of the results of Biden’s 17 months of hostility toward US produced fossil fuels (not Iran’s, Venezuela’s, or Saudi Arabia’s)”

    I love it when you start a long winded comment with such partisan BS as it saves the rest of us the time from reading what will clearly be disinformation. BTW the places you happen to hold hostility have much more oil at much lower production costs. But don’t have the real world interrupt your MAGA disinformation campaign.

  24. macroduck

    Off topic , yough tangentially related to income –

    Eurozone bonds, though mostly yielding less than Treasuries, have added more basis points than Treasuries this year. Treasuries have stabilized a bit since early May,while Eurozone yields have continued to rise. At the turn of the year, mom-and-pop investment advisors were telling clients that low yields in the Europe and Japan would serve to buffer Treasuries against Fed hikes. That has turned out to be wrong in two ways. Treasuries have had a terrible first half of 2022 so far and Eurozone yields are rising faster than U.S. yields. Which is a pretty good trick, considering.

    Mortgage applications for purchase have fallen sharply in response to the collapse in housing affordability, a manifestation of rising rates and prices. Meanwhile, single family homes under construction are a the highest level since the housing boom, multi-family homes under construction are at the highest level since the 1970s, and building permit applications are still fairly strong.

    The Target story suggests household budgets are pinched by rising gasoline (and other) prices, so there doesn’t appear to be much slack to soak up high mortgage payments.

    With housing supply running strong , affordability down and budgets squeezed, something’s gotta give. Mortgage applications suggest the usual corrective mechanism is at work. Frictions in housing supply mean the response to flagging demand may take a few months.

    As to the supply-side response, Calculated Risk reports that seller price cuts are on the rise, though they are not high by historical standards:

    My guess is, price cuts are going to be a good bit more common soon.

  25. Macroduck

    Target’s current slogan is “Expect more. Pay less.”

    Well! Isn’t that the truest thing ever. Too much inventory (there’s that “more” thing) so slash prices (there’s “less”).

    This is a classic disinflation story. Can’t do anything about oil or food or hotel rooms or airline tickets, but consumer goods? Relief is on its way. And the story is that high gasoline prices are cutting into Target’s sales, so thing “income effect”.

    Cathie Wood at Ark Investment is trying to make a name for herself right now, and is using video economics to do it. She has picked up the disinflation theme lately. I won’t burden Menzie with video links, but Cathie is easy to find. Just search.

  26. CoRev

    I keep asking for definitions, and none are forth coming. Without defining the issue it unlikely to be solved.

    Additionally, in the past week or so I have asked for a list of successful policies for the Biden administration. The reason I ask is because I can point to 1 core policy, mitigating CO2, that has significant cost impact, and is largely responsible for part of the world’s current inflation. It is estimated to cost : “If we utilized all of our <€60 per tonne abatement opportunities to their full potential (which is an important assumption), McKinsey estimates the total global cost to be €200-350 billion per year by 2030. This is less than one percent of the forecasted global GDP in 2030."

    This mitigation effort has resulted in the war on fossil fuels. A war on that set of core commodities percolates raising prices for throughout every product and function within the entire economy. That rise has been faster than the rise in incomes. There's a name for that.

    "The dollar had an average inflation rate of 8.26% in the last 12 months."

    So we have one estimate the CO2 mitigation will cost is <1% of GDP, while one of the primary mitigation efforts, the war on fossil fuels, has resulted in a portion of that 8.6% dollar inflation rate this past year. Are you betting that portion of today's inflation is less than 1%? I'm not.

    CO2 continues to go up. So is this war on fossil fuels mitigation effort in any way a successful policy?

    I'll wait for your responses.

    1. macroduck

      Perhaps the reason you have received no answer is that the question you ask is predicated on nonsense. There is a war in Ukraine. There is a war in Tigray. There is an insurrection in Myanmar. There is a cease-fire in Yemen. There is no war on fossil fuels. That’s just another bit of propaganda spewed by the fossil fuel mafia.

      There is a long-delayed realization that greenhouse gas emissions are doing harm far in excess of the 250-300 billion euros per year we seem likely to eventually spend on reducing grenhouse gas emissions. Policies in response to that realization are creeping onto the books far more slowly than is needed to decelerated harm from greenhouse gas emissions, much less reduce the current pace of harm. The delay was calculated, just as your rigged question is calculated, to enrich the fossil fuel mafia at the expense of pretty much everyone else.

      1. CoRev

        MD says: “Perhaps the reason you have received no answer is that the question you ask is predicated on nonsense….There is no war on fossil fuels. ” Really!?! “‘War on Fossil Fuel’: Biden Says Painful Gas Prices Are Part of ‘Incredible Transition’ to Green Energy, ‘God Willing’
        President Biden is coming under heavy fire for appearing to praise the painfully high gas prices that are hurting American families, calling it part of an “incredible transition” away from fossil fuels.”

        Or we have Obama’s admission: “Under my plan of a cap-and-trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket, regardless of what I say about whether coal is good or bad, because I’m capping greenhouse gases,” Obama said. “Coal power plants, natural gas, whatever the industry was, they would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that money onto consumers.”

        Liberal desperation is being driven by denial that your policies are proving to be disastrous. Your comments are indicative of that denial: “There is a long-delayed realization that greenhouse gas emissions are doing harm far in excess of the 250-300 billion euros per year we seem likely to eventually spend on reducing grenhouse(sic) gas emissions.” This mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions policy is far more costly than the mere 250-300 Euro estimates. How much of the costs of 8.6% inflation can be traced directly and indirectly to this misguided mitigation policy?

        I’ll repeat my question: “CO2 continues to go up. So is this war on fossil fuels mitigation effort in any way a successful policy?” Which part is nonsense?

        The only nonsense I see is that belief in the CO2 molecule being the control switch for climate. You can/will not even define climate and all the other straw men issues you claim as problems.

        1. pgl

          You open by pulling quotes from CBN? They are so biased they make even you look reasonable by comparison. Quoting right wing hacks like that are the next best thing to blatantly lying. The only thing the rest of us see is an incredibly partisan and dishonest barking dog chasing its own tail.

          1. CoRev

            Slavering Bierka, just can’t resist making a complete fool of himself. Focusing on CBN as a source he failed to notice that the very short article quoted Biden. Y’ano those funny ” marks have meaning.

    2. pgl

      “I keep asking for definitions, and none are forth coming.”

      Awwww – mommy will not buy poor CoRev a dictionary. Come on dude – stop wasting space with such whiny little garbage.

  27. pgl

    The public 1/6 hearings are about to start and Trump’s MAGA minions are busy creating an alternate reality aka blatant lies:

    Yes Kelly Anne Conway has her pet parrot Bruce Hall repeating “political prisoners” over and over. It will be fun watching little Brucie boy and his new parade of lies. MAGA!

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