As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.
Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US plus 2% trend (green) Source: NY Fed via FRED, OECD, WECI, and author’s calculations.
The WEI fell slightly from the previous week, to 2.2% from 2.3%, while the Weekly Tracker rose. It’s fair to say there some divergence, which is not surprising, given the large differences in methodologies. The WEI relies on correlations in ten series available at the weekly frequency (e.g., unemployment claims, fuel sales, retail sales). The Weekly Tracker — at 1.5% — is a “big data” approach that uses Google Trends and machine learning to track GDP.
The WEI reading for the week ending 10/8 of 2.7\2% is interpretable as a y/y quarter growth of 2.2% if the 2.2% reading were to persist for an entire quarter. The OECD Weekly Tracker reading of 1.5% is interpretable as a y/y growth rate of 1.5% for year ending 9/24 (this series was revised downward noticeably from last release). The Baumeister et al. reading of 1.2% is interpreted as a 1.2% growth rate in excess of long term trend growth rate. Average growth of US GDP over the 2000-19 period is about 2%, so this implies a 3.2% growth rate for the year ending 10/8.
Since these are year-on-year growth rates, it’s possible we were in a recession in H1 as one observer suggested a month ago, but it (still) seems unlikely.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/warnock-walker-clash-abortion-high-stakes-senate-debate-rcna52379
Walker-Warnock debate. Walker lied about a lot of things as he acted like a child rudely interrupting, playing show and tell with some fake police bag and a lot of other garbage you knew he would pull. But can we talk about actual issues please?
Another contrast between the candidates appeared on health care. Warnock called for expanding Medicaid to cover Georgians who are uninsured due to the state’s decision not to accept extra funding under the Affordable Care Act. Walker appeared flat-footed when asked if he favors Medicaid expansion, saying that “people have coverage for health care” and that he wants Georgians to “get off the government health care and get on the health care he’s got,” gesturing toward Warnock.
People have coverage for health care? Yea – Hershel Walker has the IQ of a dumb rock.
Says the dumbest rock here: “People have coverage for health care? Yea – Hershel Walker has the IQ of a dumb rock.”
“1.4 million Georgians do not have health insurance, and Georgia’s uninsured rate of 13.7 percent is third highest in the country. In rural Georgia, the uninsured rate could climb to more than 25 percent by 2026.”
https://coverga.org/learn/about-fast-facts/
I suppose we should consider this “progress”. CoRev finally found one Black person on planet Earth he likes. Or does Ben “Uncle Tom” Carson get a pass as well??
Nice link which opens with this:
One thing Gov. Kemp and the state legislature can do right now to protect families is to expand the Medicaid health insurance program so that more people have health coverage and can get care if they become sick without worrying about large medical bills afterward. Most states have already taken this step – it is time for Governor Kemp and our state legislature to do the right thing and expand Medicaid. Immediate Medicaid expansion would save lives, provide desperately needed coverage to Georgia’s most vulnerable, accelerate economic recovery and stabilize rural health systems.
Of course Hershel’s rebuttal of those facts would go like this: LIE, LIE, LIE.
Hershel’s version of CoRev’s barking.
You are defending Walker on this one? OK – you really are a complete moron.
Actually this is classic CoRev who may be the only person on the planet who knows less about the topic at hand than Hershel Walker. So does he say anything of substance in rebuttal? Of course not because he can’t. He just starts barking hoping the other retarded dogs in the yard thinks he made a point.
i thought obamacare got everyone insured….
maybe walker is as misinformed as i.
It might have if the Republican governors choose to adopt the Medicaid option. Gov. Kemp did not. That is the core issue here which of course the stupid troll you are does not get. My – you are dumb.
It would have a lot more people insured (maybe all of them), if Republicans would allow Obamacare/Medicare to use market power to lower pricing. But Republicans don’t want lower healthcare costs, they just want to talk like they do.
The Republican playbook: fight against progress, then after obstructing that progress criticize Dems for not making the progress. It’s like Ted Turner used to say “Lead, follow, or get the F*ck out of the way” If all Republicans can do is obstruct lower healthcare costs they need to STFU and get out of Biden’s way.
Anonymous,
Yes, you were wrong. It was always part of why it was so ridiculous that GOPs ran around screaming that Obamacare was “socialized medicine” when it did not even end the status of the US as being the only high income nation in the world not to have universal coverage. Even Hayek supported universal national health insurance, despite the fact that some idiot GOP congresspeople waved copies of his _Road to Serfdom_ around when they were opposing Obamacare. But then it was always absurd for them to oppose it given that its key parts were originally GOP proposals.
As it was providing for expanding Medicaid coverage was the main mechanism for expanding coverage in Obamacare. The SCOTUS then unexpectedly decided that states could opt out of that, which led to this situation we have of some states not having expanded it, as is the situation in Georgia.
That you were ignorant about this well known bottom line fact about Obamacare is completely unsurprising, although not as stupid as CoRev’s comment above, who continues to win the Dumbest Commenter on Econbrowser contest.
you alls have had the congress to fix it since jan 2021….
Anonymous somehow missed the Obamacare “Death Panels” hysteria. Surprise?
Anonymous self flagellates: “you alls have had congress to fix it…” Does not understand significance of a 50-50 Senate and the required numbers of votes needed to pass most legislation. Or potential filibusters. Or just about anything else.
Since he’s proved repeatedly he knows very little about government, an attempted explanation would not be worthwhile.
Anonymous: in a previous post, you said you’re a Social Security recipient. How about Medicare? My total monthly MC payment is $271. For that and an additional $780 (my copay), I had a complete knee replacement. Add in another $300 (my copays) for 2 and 1/2 months of physical therapy and a new pain free knee..
Why shouldn’t everyone — subsidized or not—have access to proper medical care?
It doesn’t take a lot to fool the white trash of Georgia. Maybe just bring a couple small pen lights and move them around in front of your face. Or a fake badge that shines. Children’s picture books would be another good option.
Alas there are two Georgias. Yea there are too many white trash types. Then there are the New South sensible people who mostly live within what we call the Perimeter Road aka I-285. Outside the perimeter lies a lot of very pretty areas which alas makes one vulnerable to the white trash.
Have an acquaintance in northern Georgia who used to be a DC lobbyist. He travels to the Atlanta area and says those trips are becoming less frequent as the violence in Atlanta, including shootings on I-285, have increased. Are those from the “white trash” Georgians?
https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/atlanta-2021-crime-stats
https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/i-285-shooting-victim-dies-police-continue-search-for-shooter
Of course, your comment and my reply have nothing to do with the topic of this post, but I felt your gratuitous, racist comment required a reply.
I figured you would come up with a racist smear of Atlanta. You’re a disgusting pig.
Brucie pulls back his KKK rope and finds one – count them one – story about someone being shot in a freeway. Brucie wants us to believe that crime still being a bit higher than it was in 2019 makes all the darkies in Atlanta criminals. Never mind he has no clue who are committing those crimes. Never mind crime nation wide has not returned to pre pandemic levels. Never mind that crime is up because of Trump domestic terrorists like Brucie himself.
Look – this kind of racist crap should have gotten Brucie banned a long time ago. But I guess our host is more tolerant than KKK members like Bruce Hall than I am.
I get Bruce Hall cannot be bothered to check the details of anything but I found the conversations around this interesting:
‘Councilwoman Mary Norwood has been active in getting people behind her Public Safety Taskforce. Another councilwoman said the measure should be adopted for the entire city.’
Ms. Norwood represents Buckhead which is a very affluent and basically white area of Atlanta. Nothing wrong with that as Buckhead knows how to party. But her excellent idea should not be limited to just Buckhead. And even Ms. Norwood agrees with that.
Atlanta is the city that is too busy to hate. Something a know nothing racist MAGA hat moron would never get. No – Brucie is more comfortable hanging in northeast Georgia with Marjorie Taylor Greene and her KKK supporters.
If your acquaintance actually thinks his/her risk of death or harm has risen to an appreciable degree due to shootings Atlanta, you need smarter acquaintances.
Nice try substituting anecdote for data, though.
Bruce Hall
There are some police I would call “pig”. Other police I would not call “pig”. Some other derogatory terms that some people find completely “unacceptable” in ANY context (yup, probably that one you’re thinking) I might use. Don’t behave like white trash, and I won’t call you white trash. Don’t act like a pig and I won’t call you a pig. Etc. It is the behavior and no effort to earn/derive respect which prompts how I will label you.
Do you Bruce deserve to be called “white trash”?? Maybe not, but I would say it’s a common character trait for white trash to be hypersensitive (triggered, as you just now so easily were) to factual observations, and also to go off the wall (be triggered) about things because they inherently know the comment is describing themselves, and therefor it makes them angry.
I have heard both whites and Blacks use the term “white trash”. 98% of the time I barely notice, because I don’t think they are referring to me, or using the term inaccurately.
Bruce,
Duh. Northern Georgia is the most racist part of the state, the part represented by Marjorie Taylor Greene. Sorry, but a comment from somebody there has pretty much zero credibility, just evidence that he is a racist redneck himself.
‘Sheikevious Young, 21, died from her injuries on Tuesday, police said.’
I guess you were too busy in your haste to smear Atlanta as a dangerous city for your white MAGA hat types to notice the victim was a lovely black lady. The story notes the police has not figured out (yet) who the shooter was. Now if the shooter turns out to be one of your North Georgia racists, the egg on your face will make for a nice breakfast. Hint add grits for a real Southern treat.
pgl, you make a racist comment and then accuse me of being racist when I present you with facts.
Man, you are an incorrigible troll.
I’m thinking Bruce missed “Deliverance” both book and movie. Filmed on location in Georgia but not in Atlanta.
More proof Bruce Hall cannot read:
“Bruce Hall
October 17, 2022 at 9:11 am
pgl, you make a racist comment and then accuse me of being racist when I present you with facts. Man, you are an incorrigible troll.”
Ah Brucie – read the comments from other people here. Everyone knows you did not present “facts”. Everyone here knows you are a flaming racist. Come on little Brucie – for an old man you never grew up.
Moses,
Nice attempt at rationalization. Did work though.
When you start calling people names based on their race, that’s racist. Welcome to pgl’s racist club.
Moses,
Nice attempt at rationalization. It didn’t work though.
When you start calling people names based on race, that’s racist. Welcome to pgl’s racist club.
Barkley, sure, nice generalization. You do know than many people from the northeast are moving into Georgia, don’t you? You do know that there are many wealthy communities with well-educated people there, don’t you? It seems like you’ve fallen into pgl’s trap, as well.
So, based on pgl, Moses, and you, it would seem fine to use generalizations and racist comments about Georgia’s urban center, right? Please note that my original response to pgl’s racist comment used facts in evidence and no derogatory racist names.
Again, this is all irrelevant to the subject of this post. Macroeconomic activity has fallen and, given current conditions, is likely to continue to fall. See my comment regarding “Dr. Doom”. You don’t have to agree with him, but at least it’s on subject.
Bruce Hall is now accusing Moses of being racist? Gee I did not know calling out serial garbage from a MAGA hat wearing clown is racism. Maybe I should check Urban Dictionary to see how this works.
Hey Bruce – I would advice you to grow up but we all know it is too late for you.
@ bruce hall
But I don’t label people based on their race, as I thought I explained, I don’t view all whites as “white trash”, it’s specific to the behavior a “subset” of white people exhibit. Such as your own behavior.
Do you think Menzie views all whites as “racist”?? Even with all the suffering/pain Menzie or his immigrant parents/grandparents assumably went through?? Menzie would have slit his own throat by now, much less excelled in academia. Do You think if I went to a Chinese restaurant with some Chinese girl I liked (or a specific Chinese girl I would have jumped in front of a train for) was looked at with hateful eyes by 3/4ths of the restaurant room, that I thought “all” mainland Chinese are racist?? Even if I talk about “village Chinese” it’s a generality. But if I say “village Chinese” in conversation without further elucidation, you get a picture in your mind.
Bruce Hall
October 17, 2022 at 12:43 pm
Barkley, sure, nice generalization. You do know than many people from the northeast are moving into Georgia, don’t you?
I think Bruce Hall needs a map. Yes there are people from New York moving to Buckhead but that is a far cry from the area where Marjorie Taylor Greene represents. Bruce – you have no effing clue where the state of Georgia even is.
BTW the more you try to claim you are presenting “facts” and the more you deny your are a racist pig – the more you sound like Hershel Walker. LIE, LIE, LIE as he does just that.
Bruce,
You look completely ridiculous here. You quote some random “lobbyist,” obviously a highly political person with an agenda, from what is probably the most racist part of Georgia, making a snotty comment about crime in Atlanta, and you expect anybody here to take you seriously other than stupid goofballs like Anonymous.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33415-5
October 12, 2022
Outcomes among confirmed cases and a matched comparison group in the Long-COVID in Scotland study
By Claire E. Hastie, David J. Lowe, Andrew McAuley, Andrew J. Winter, Nicholas L. Mills, Corri Black, Janet T. Scott, Catherine A. O’Donnell, David N. Blane, Susan Browne, Tracy R. Ibbotson & Jill P. Pell
Abstract
With increasing numbers infected by SARS-CoV-2, understanding long-COVID is essential to inform health and social care support. A Scottish population cohort of 33,281 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and 62,957 never-infected individuals were followed-up via 6, 12 and 18-month questionnaires and linkage to hospitalization and death records. Of the 31,486 symptomatic infections,1,856 (6%) had not recovered and 13,350 (42%) only partially. No recovery was associated with hospitalized infection, age, female sex, deprivation, respiratory disease, depression and multimorbidity. Previous symptomatic infection was associated with poorer quality of life, impairment across all daily activities and 24 persistent symptoms including breathlessness (OR 3.43, 95% CI 3.29–3.58), palpitations (OR 2.51, OR 2.36–2.66), chest pain (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.96–2.23), and confusion (OR 2.92, 95% CI 2.78–3.07). Asymptomatic infection was not associated with adverse outcomes. Vaccination was associated with reduced risk of seven symptoms. Here we describe the nature of long-COVID and the factors associated with it.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
October 13, 2022
Coronavirus
United Kingdom
Cases ( 23,798,793)
Deaths ( 191,681)
Deaths per million ( 2,790)
China
Cases ( 254,855)
Deaths ( 5,226)
Deaths per million ( 3.6)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/14/world/europe/truss-tories-fairy-tale-unravels.html
October 14, 2022
For Truss and the Tories, a ‘Fairy Tale’ Unravels
Having abandoned her signature economic plan, it remains unclear whether the British prime minister or her party can reclaim a mandate.
By Mark Landler
LONDON — For all the shock and dismay at the chaos that has enveloped Britain’s new government, this was a crisis foretold.
When Liz Truss ran for leader of the Conservative Party on a platform of sweeping tax cuts this summer, her opponent, Rishi Sunak, warned about embarking on a spree of public borrowing at a time of spiraling prices.
“Borrowing your way out of inflation isn’t a plan,” Mr. Sunak said in July, “it’s a fairy tale.”
On Friday, the last strands of that fairy tale unraveled. Prime Minister Truss ousted the chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, after his tax-cutting program roiled the markets and sent the pound into a tailspin. She also announced plans to reinstate an increase in corporate taxes, gutting her supply-side agenda and effectively embracing the policies of the defeated Mr. Sunak.
Whether sacrificing Mr. Kwarteng, one of Ms. Truss’s closest colleagues and the architect of the tax cuts, will be enough to save her own job was not yet clear. But it was a stark illustration of the price the prime minister has paid for thumbing her nose at economic orthodoxy, skirting fiscal scrutiny and rowing against global monetary trends — all in pursuit of her dream to be a free-market insurgent….
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=t69R
January 30, 2018
Real private weekly earnings for United Kingdom, 2007-2022
(Indexed to 2007)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NbUe
January 30, 2018
Real Hourly Earnings in Manufacturing for United Kingdom, 2007-2022
(Indexed to 2007)
I’m watching some post debate coverage of the debate where a smiling lying POS advisor for Walker tried to paint his boy as the moderate on abortion and Warnock as some sort of abortion on demand with no limits radical. Of course this is a flat out lie with regards to Warnock’s sensible stance. But Walker apparently is all in on a 2019 law signed by Gov. Kemp that makes illegal all abortions after a heart beat can be detected, which is usually 6 weeks into the pregnancy. That is not a moderate position. Of course the CNN moderators did not cut off this lying POS as he grossly misrepresented this issue.
I am lost to explain why any Jewish American would be part of MAGA. Here is one reason why I’m lost to explain this:
https://jezebel.com/the-republican-party-is-full-on-embracing-anti-semitism-1849638599
The Republican Party Is Full-on Embracing Anti-Semitism and Bigotry
From Dr. Oz in front of Hitler’s car to Marjorie Taylor Greene spouting the Great Replacement Theory to the GOP supporting Kanye West—the message is clear.
Of course, Oz and Greene are just following Trump’s lead.
Off topic, China’s internal politics –
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/13/china-xi-jinping-succession-ccp-party-congress-elders/
Who’s who in Chinese politics, and what it means for Xi’s effort to become president-for-life. Revered political elders have been told to sit down and shut up.
Also off topic, also China –
U.S. limits on China’s access to microchips looks like a combination of industrial policy and foreign policy. Anybody seen anything truly enlightening on the impact on Taiwan’s trade balance and economy?
Anybody have a solidly-based feel for how much microchips have to do with Biden’s commitment to Taiwan?
“Truly enlightening” and “solidly-based” both exclude Chinese government sources and lap-dog Chinese news outlets.
“U.S. limits on China’s access to microchips looks like a combination of industrial policy and foreign policy. Anybody seen anything truly enlightening on the impact on Taiwan’s trade balance and economy?”
It is not mainly about access to computer chips, but about access to modern production facilities. As Taiwan imports these from the EU (ASML has a market share of >60%) the politicla task is to convince the Europeans not to deliver the same stuff to China.
The more European perspective is of course that an invasion of Taiwan would disrupt the chip suooly, therefore, we see huge EU programs to transfer/built up production capacity to/in Europe.
Does the activity in options markets alone eclipse all this by at least an order of magnitude, making the chart pure noise?
rsm,
Why of course!!!! But then for you, there is no meaningful economic data of any sort on anything as it is all just noise, amirite? Oh, sorry, can’t hear what you are saying, :-).
More on Walker v. Warnock on health care:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/five-takeaways-from-the-georgia-senate-debate/ar-AA12YP5x?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=1d3a2d80a7a84d4eaa8b19b941e6c646
Warnock argues for Medicaid expansion while Walker is unclear
Georgia is one of 12 states not to expand Medicaid and currently has an estimated 1.5 million uninsured residents. Walker, when asked by the moderator if the federal government should step in to make sure everyone has access to health care, began a confusing non-response.
“Well, right now, people have coverage for health care. It’s according to what type of coverage do you want. Because if you have an able-bodied job, you’re going to have health care,” he said. “But everyone else – have health care is the type of health care you’re going to get. And I think that is the problem.” Walker continued to say that Warnock wants people to “depend on the government,” while he wants “you to get off the government health care and get on the health care he’s got.” To note: Warnock, as a US Senator, is on a government health care plan.
Walker also gave a puzzling response to Warnock’s attack on his opposition to federal legislation capping the price of insulin for people with diabetes. “I believe in reducing insulin, but at the same time, you have to eat right,” Walker said. “Unless you have eating right, insulin is doing you no good. So you have to get food prices down and you got to get gas prices down so they can go and get insulin.” Warnock responded by telling viewers who require the drug that Walker was, in effect, blaming them for their struggles accessing it.
Warnock, on the subject of his pledge to close the Medicaid gap, was asked how he would pay for it. “This is not a theoretical issue for me,” he replied, invoking the story of a nurse in a trauma ward who lost coverage when she became sick and, as he put it, died “for lack of health care.” “Georgia needs to expand Medicaid,” Warnock continued. “It costs us more not to expand. What we’re doing right now is we’re subsidizing health care in other states” – a reference to the state’s refusal to accept federal funds that residents already pay into.
OK I already noted Walker’s comments on the Medicaid issue were beyond brain dead. But this response to the insulin issue basically says that Walker believes eating right cures diabetes. Now that is beyond STUPID. Do Georgians really want someone with an IQ in the single digits to be their US Senator?
How does the prior discussions of “glut of savings” fit together with the Fed. raising interest rates?
I thought that the glut of savings argument was supposed to keep rates from rising. Was that the narrative assuming no Fed. interest rate increases?
Also, do we still think that inflation is transitory?
@ AS
“Do we still think inflation is transitory??” ANSWER: The vast majority do not. But the argument that the inflation is caused by the demand side more than the supply side is pure bullsh*t.
“Glut of savings”. There may be other better numbers/gauges for this, but just grabbing the handiest: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT
Good questions though.
There was a really good number here quoted by a bank once, and I thought it was pretty cool and quoted it here on the blog, and I promised myself I wouldn’t forget the name of that savings barometer, and of course I went ahead and forgot what the hell it was. But anyway, there is also good indication Americans are turning to their credit cards much more in recent months, which is often an indicator they have run out of savings.
I figured as much – personal savings has returned to normal levels. And of course national savings includes the government surplus which changes over time. Whenever people who have no clue make statements like this glut of savings claims, it is important to provide the actual data. Thanks!
I thought that I read here and elsewhere that the “savings glut” was a worldwide issue that would keep rates down for the long-term, due to aging population and folks competing for interest rate returns.
Economic forecasts are not worth much if they purport to be an announcement of a new paradigm that has very little staying power.
Also, regarding inflation, seems that transitory should refer to a “brief” period. Seems like we are going to endure elevated inflation longer than transitory would indicate. Several months ago, it looked like inflation rates were on a linear trend, which seemed to indicate to me given the concept of persistence that we would experience inflation for more than a transient period.
@ AS
You’ve got a very good point on it being more an international problem versus specific to USA. I guess I misinterpreted your question on savings as more specific to USA. But I think war, and supply chain issues mostly related to China has created more inflation than many people, including myself, foresaw.
Bernanke’s savings glut story depends on countries running large current account surpluses, which represent excess saving and large capital outflows. Both China and Germany – the two big swing countries in terms of current account surpluses – are in economic trouble due to supply-side problems. One can imagine a reduction on output lowering saving in both those countries which would reduce global saving. Haven’t looked at numbers recently. Maybe I should.
The structural low-inflation story is connected to both the saving glut story and the secular stagnation story. Demographics, productivity and all that. Two exogenous supply shocks in three years kinda makes a hash of the productivity data and inflationdata. Shortening supply chains undoes some if the disinflationary effects of global sourcing. Could be some big structural shifts result from the shocks which change the longer-term inflation environment. I ain’t smart enough to know.
The yield curve and measures of inflation expectations suggest that inflation will prove transitory.
Nice discussion re Bernanke’s savings glut story, which addressed the situation 15 years ago. AS may need to realize such matters change over time.
As to the demographic issue in restraining inflation, global working-age population trends ain’t what they once were. Krugman has suggested that demographics are still helpful to the inflation outlook, but hasn’t recently said why, at least not that I know of.
https://data.oecd.org/pop/working-age-population.htm
Russians who have been conscripted to support Putin’s war crimes are facing all sorts of misery as well as possible death:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-military-range-shooting-leaves-11-dead-15-wounded/ar-AA1308SC?bncnt=BroadcastNews_BreakingNews&ocid=UCPNC2&FORM=BNC001&pc=U531&cvid=38ba7348dc6e4cce89a0f7e5f5e27507
Two volunteer soldiers on Saturday fired at other troops at a Russian military firing range near Ukraine, killing 11 and wounding 15 others, before getting killed, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The ministry said in a statement that the shooting took place in the Belgorod region in southwestern Russia that borders Ukraine. It said that the two volunteers from an unnamed ex-Soviet nation fired on other soldiers during target practice and were killed by return fire. The ministry called the incident a terrorist attack.
The shooting comes amid a hasty mobilization ordered by President Vladimir Putin to beef up Russian forces in Ukraine — a move that triggered protests and caused hundreds of thousands to flee Russia. Putin said on Friday that over 220,000 reservists already had been called up as part of an effort to recruit 300,000. Even though the Russian leader declared that only people who had recently served in the military will be subject to the call-up, activists and rights groups reported military conscription offices rounding up people without any army experience — some of whom were also unfit for service for medical reasons. Some of the freshly called-up reservists posted videos of them being forced to sleep on the floor or even outside and given rusty weapons before being sent to the front lines. Authorities have acknowledged that the mobilization was often poorly organized and promised to improve the situation.
The situation will improve only when the Kremlin removes Putin from power and ends this ceaseless war.
If I was a Russian soldier I would be very concerned about serving together with some of those forced conscripts from occupied Ukraine. Some of those may very well be loyal to (answering to) Ukraine.
There is still a lot of optimism in those projections… quite possibly unwarranted.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/inflation-stay-higher-longer-energy-underinvestment-sticky-wages-aging-demographics-2022-10
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/10/europe-energy-crisis-russia-ukraine-war-ones-and-tooze/
Do you have a clue who Cameron Abadi even is? I didn’t think so. Did you read past the headlines? Of course you didn’t. And BTW I do not trust anyone from Bank of America on anything.
Should I really care who Cameron Abadi is anymore than your hero Jeffrey Toobin? If you want to dispute facts, let’s do that. If you want to try to smear people, go in your corner and play with yourself.
God you are a dumbass. You link to a discussion by Cameron Abadi and now you say you do not care who he is? Your link troll. And it was sort of a fact free rant you linked to. Do you even know what the word fact means? Didn’t think so.
Brucey, Brucey, Brucey…
Those “projections” are indices of real activity. Your links are to speculation about future events. Silly comment.
This habit you have, of posting any old link that seems fits your politics without knowing or caring what they actually say, it isn’t a good look. You aren’t even trying to seem smart. You must think Menzie’s readership is gullible at a faux news level.
Macro, you are correct; mea culpa. “Those data”.
I was focused on the recent flattening of the lines and incorrectly inferred a continuation of that. My own “projection”.
My whole point was that danger may lie ahead and it may be more than a “soft landing”. You can see where I was going in my comment below about “Dr. Doom”.
You did not even read what Dr. Doom as you call him even said. Dude – he contradicted your serial BS. Come on Brucie – learn to read. Damn!
well, zandi is still in the corner of no recession earlier this year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/17/mark-zandi-warns-a-recession-may-come-in-the-second-half-of-2023.html
this is upsetting for some on this blog to hear.
Krispy Kreme Chris Christie says there is no one to ‘question the credibility’ of the people who have bravely appeared before the 1/6 committee? Seriously? He wants us to believe some of them are lying? Like he lied about Bridge Gate. What a fat POS!
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=smacks+down+chris+christie&view=detail&mid=66577774F6DACF87959266577774F6DACF879592&FORM=VIRE
Trump demands that Jews kiss his lilly white rear end:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-tells-jews-to-get-their-act-together-and-appreciate-him-more/ar-AA131BLU?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=7a9a4ff5989840a682ab54652460011d
Former President Donald Trump on Sunday said American Jews don’t appreciate him enough and that they need to “get their act together” and show more gratitude for his past policies toward Israel “before it is too late.” “No President has done more for Israel than I have. Somewhat surprisingly, however, our wonderful Evangelicals are far more appreciative of this than the people of the Jewish faith, especially those living in the U.S.,” he posted on his platform Truth Social. Trump went on to say that his approval rating in Israel is the highest “in the world” and that he could “easily” be elected prime minister there. “Jews have to get their act together and appreciate what they have in Israel — Before it is too late!” he added. His comments were quickly called out as antisemitic on social media.
Trump may be antisemitic? Stop the presses.
I don’t see that as antisemitic, but the opposite. Stop trying to tell a story. Trump’s ethnic background has been debated and IMO should be admitted. Especially on his fathers side. Being from a German state, doesn’t make you “German”.
This article by “Dr. Doom” is several months old now, but still on track. S&P500 is down about 25% from its peak in December.
https://nourielroubini.com/a-stagflationary-debt-crisis-looms/
Another discussion you did not finish reading. Let me help you out here:
The second question is whether the increase in inflation was driven more by excessive aggregate demand (loose monetary, credit, and fiscal policies) or by stagflationary negative aggregate supply shocks (including the initial COVID-19 lockdowns, supply-chain bottlenecks, a reduced US labor supply, the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on commodity prices, and China’s “zero-COVID” policy). While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus raises the risk of a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession) when monetary policy is tightened.
Supply driven which is the opposite of the uninformed BS you parade. Now let’s count those Biden policies at play here. Oh wait – COVID got crazy because of Trump incompetence and Putin started the war not Biden. So Bruce – once again you THINK the headline supports your MAGA agenda but you failed to read the actual discussion.
Now come on dude – your preK teacher is trying to teach you to read. Pay attention.
pgl, yes supply chain and shortages are obviously a factor in current inflation. Yes, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated that in the energy sector. No one has disagreed with that.
Now the rest of the story….
Biden’s ideological fits about the fossil fuel industry, starting day 1 in office, have cause a significant reluctance of oil companies and investors to spend more money on exploration and new refinery capabilities. US field oil peaked at 13.0 million bpd during Trump’s administration after three years of strong growth because COVID and the shutdown hysteria of 2020 brought the economy to its knees. After seven quarters under the Biden Administration, that number is 11.8 bpd with very little growth since April 2022.
Biden (and his Congressional buddies) have pushed through inflation generating profligate spending bills while his so-called Inflation Reduction Act scores about zero in that regard from the CBO.
But then there is Biden’s take:
“Today’s (10/13/22) report shows some progress in the fight against higher prices, even as we have more work to do,” Biden said in a written statement. “Inflation over the last three months has averaged 2%, at an annualized rate.”
“A lot of people are hurting these days. But today’s report shows, though, some progress,” Biden added during a speech in Los Angeles.
“Overall inflation was 2% over the last three months, that’s down from 11% over the prior three months. That’s progress,” he insisted.
You are still grinding your drill baby drill BS even after our host has demonstrated it would have no immediate impact on gasoline prices? Come on dude – please learn to READ.
It is interesting that Brucie boy pretends he is quoting something but no link, no attribution?
Bruce – I trust you know you have zero credibility here. None. Try providing links so we can check out who your sources are and whether you have LIED about what the few credible ones actually said.
“Biden’s ideological fits about the fossil fuel industry, starting day 1 in office, have cause a significant reluctance of oil companies and investors to spend more money on exploration and new refinery capabilities. US field oil peaked at 13.0 million bpd during Trump’s administration after three years of strong growth because COVID and the shutdown hysteria of 2020 brought the economy to its knees. After seven quarters under the Biden Administration, that number is 11.8 bpd with very little growth since April 2022.”
EIA has a nice chart on this. Why didn’t you provide a link? Macroduck did under a more recent post. Oh you didn’t provide a link as your little comment is far from being honest. We are having a field day with your lying on this topic. ENJOY!
Ole bark, bark serial liar that he is blames Bruce for not providing a ling, then does the very same thing. “EIA has a nice chart on this. Why didn’t you provide a link? Macroduck did under a more recent post. Oh you didn’t provide a link as your little comment is far from being honest.” Tsk, tsk neitherthe EIA nor MD’s charts are linked.
We are having a field day with your ever constant lying.
Bruce,
Note that it remains at over 30,000 well above the roughly 27,999 the DJI was on Election Day 2020 when Trump predicted it was going to massively crash due to the outcome.
m2 kept rocketing after jan 2021
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
same for the fed balance sheet
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
trump failed to see huge monetary expansion was wise or possible
FED thought monetary expansion was not wise or even possible? I guess you missed his berating the FED for not reducing interest rates back in 2017. Come on man – we know you are truly dumb partisan hack. So take a chill.
“m2 kept rocketing after jan 2021”
Take a look at your own link. M2 growth was very high in 2020. Its growth rate has slowed since then. Dude – your lies are really transparent and also incredibly STUPID.
Off topic naturally, grain prices –
World grain prices have come down from the May peak, partly as Black Sea shipments resumed under the Humanitarian Corridor deal, partly as stockpiling (hoarding) has eased. Harvests are also pulling prices down. Meanwhile, the gap between U.S. and world prices has widened over the period of the war:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UUEK
Ukraine has reportedly managed to export 7.7 million tons of food under the deal:
https://pakobserver.net/ukraine-exported-over-7-7m-tonnes-of-foodstuffs-under-grain-deal/
Sadly, Putin is now hinting that he may scuttle the deal. In part, that’s just part of his tantrum over his very own bridge being blown up, partly because he’s not happy with Russia’s share of grain exports under the deal. More food blackmail from Putin.
There is another factor driving the current gap between U.S. and world grain prices (not yet evident in the chart) that has nothing to do with the Black Sea, but is still bad for grain importing countries. Low water in the Mississippi has wheat exports at a 50-year low:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat
Good for U.S. mills, presumably for U.S. consumers. Worrying for hungry parts of the world.
Maybe we could send some ships over there and tell Putin if he scuttles the deal, we will take over the seas and ship the grain ourselves.
Thanks for posting how grain prices have come back down to 2021 levels even if it ruins Bruce Hall’s day.
Macro, you seem to have ignored the table below the chart.
If you think youhave a point to makw, make it. What, exactly, do you imagine I have ignored?
I think our favorite MAGA hat troll means the chart on wheat prices but who knows as this boy cannot read or even write. Now if he means what I think he means, I checked and a lot of other food prices have declined. Did I say Brucie can’t read?
Off topic, more on Ron Johnson –
https://www.theonion.com/ron-johnson-shows-he-s-tough-on-crime-by-hanging-bread-1849643528
After carrying out the execution, Johnson was reportedly informed by witnesses that the bread had come free with a meal the boy’s family had ordered at a nearby restaurant.
That was FUNNY!
Hershel LIE, LIE, LIE Walker’s story keep evolving:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/that-s-my-check-walker-acknowledges-giving-700-to-his-ex-but-denies-her-claim-he-knew-it-was-for-an-abortion/ar-AA13329d?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=b6b9fcb8bcca4aeba6d16523409eea0a
Confronted with images of a receipt from an abortion clinic and a check dated days later and bearing his name, Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker said Sunday that an ex-partner’s allegation that he paid to terminate her pregnancy is a lie.
First Hershel denied knowing this woman. But now he concedes he wrote her the $700 check? Look – it is clear she wanted to have a baby but Hershel did not in 2009. Heck they later did have a baby even as Hershel denies he knew that kid too. Hershel loves to call other people – including one of his sons – liars but it seems he is the one who is lying.
Oh wait – Hershel now says he gave this woman this check (which we wrote in 2009) because he was the mother of one of his kids. Well – yea she gave birth to one of his kids years later.
Hershel is clearly lying it is so obvious that he is lying one has to wonder if he is brain dead. n
Donald Trump Jr. admits to something our Usual Suspects should admit – he does not even know the basics!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/donald-trump-jr-admits-he-doesn-t-understand-basic-accounting-but-signed-off-on-dad-s-finances-anyway/ar-AA12Vs3S?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=b6b9fcb8bcca4aeba6d16523409eea0a
Donald Trump Jr. told New York probers he doesn’t understand basic accounting, a new filing says.
He claimed ignorance when asked at a sworn deposition about signing his dad’s financial statements.
He said he remembers a little bit about accounting principles from ‘accounting 101’ at Wharton.
As sole trustee for the family business, Donald Trump Jr. routinely signs his father’s financial statements — but he still insisted during a recent sworn deposition that he has very little actual understanding of accounting, New York officials revealed Thursday. Asked about “GAAP,” the generally accepted accounting principles that must be followed in the US, the younger Trump claimed nearly complete ignorance, according to court papers filed Thursday by New York state’s attorney general, Letitia James. “Donald Trump, Jr. testified that his only familiarity with GAAP was ‘probably [because of] Accounting 101 in Wharton,’ and that apart from knowing that they “are generally accepted,” he could not identify any other knowledge he has about GAAP,” the filing said.
Like father, like son. Totally incompetent but who cares. MAGA!
No wonder Mazars disavowed 10 years worth of accounting for Trump.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/official-china-mining-coal-increasing-wind-solar-91610337
China plans to boost coal production through 2025 to avoid a repeat of last year’s power shortages, an official said Monday, adding to setbacks in efforts to cut climate-changing carbon emissions from the biggest global source.
China is a big investor in wind and solar, but jittery Communist Party leaders called for more coal-fired power after economic growth slumped last year and shortages caused blackouts. That prompted warnings that carbon emissions will rise faster through 2030, when they government says they should peak. The ruling party aims for annual coal production to rise to 4.6 billion tons in 2025, a deputy director of the Cabinet’s National Energy Administration, Ren Jingdong, said at a news conference held during a ruling party congress. That would be a 12% increase over last year’s 4.1 billion tons. Ensuring an adequate power supply is especially sensitive after economic growth slid to 2.2% over a year earlier in the first six months of this year, less than half the official target of 5.5%. The ruling party earlier called for this year’s production to rise by 300 million tons, or about 7% of last year’s output.
China’s attempts to modernize their semiconductor sector has relied on its own brain drain approach:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/ban-on-us-talent-at-china-chip-firms-thwarts-xi-s-key-ambition/ar-AA132urG?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9bc7c3ac6d1f4759b79d7c6fd4d1576d
China will speed its efforts to build a legion of talent and win the battle to develop homegrown technologies, President Xi Jinping pledged at the Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress on Sunday. But new US restrictions issued a week earlier are already undercutting those plans. The Biden administration’s latest salvo of sanctions includes restrictions on so-called US persons supporting the development, production or use of integrated circuits at some chip plants located in China. Effective Oct. 12, the measures are broad enough to encompass holders of US green cards as well as US residents and American citizens, capturing a wide swath of senior executives at Chinese semiconductor firms. The country will “attract the best minds from all areas to the cause of the Party and the people,” Xi said, reiterating the need to strengthen international talent exchange. Senior Chinese officials have repeatedly sought to assure overseas researchers that China is a better place for their work. Beijing pledged to beef up its push to lure talent back to China despite tight Covid-19 restrictions that have mostly sealed the country off from the rest of the world. Foreign-born designers and engineers, along with Chinese people with foreign passports or residency, have long played an instrumental role in the nation’s technological development. In consumer electronics, Huawei Technologies Co. accelerated its efforts to catch up to the iPhone by hiring a former Apple Inc. creative director, Abigail Brody, as its chief designer in 2015. The company also recruited internationally to build up its in-house chip and audio engineering and 5G wireless technology.
Six of the seven key research and development executives of China’s leading semiconductor equipment maker Piotech Inc. are American citizens, per its Star Markets filing in early 2022. Many of Piotech’s top management, including its chairman and general manager, are also Americans.
25 years ago a government employee that had to travel could spend just over $100 a day for hotel accommodations. Now I get prices in general are higher today but DAMN:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-organization-charged-secret-service-as-much-as-241185-per-night-to-stay-at-trump-property/ar-AA133KF2
During Donald Trump’s presidency, Trump hotels charged the Secret Service nightly rates as high as $1,185 per room, more than five times the recommended government rate, and the high rates continued after he left office, according to an investigation released Monday by House Committee on Oversight and Reform. Beginning in 2017 through Sept. 15, 2021, the Secret Service received at least 40 waivers to let it spend more than the recommended per diem rates to stay at Trump properties to protect Trump as a president, as a former president and to protect those around him, the investigation found.In one ledger obtained by the Oversight Committee and published in the report, the Secret Service was charged $1,160 for a room at the Trump International Hotel in Washington D.C. for agents protecting Eric Trump on March 8, 2017. The government rate for D.C. on that night was $242. On Nov. 8, 2017, another ledger shows that the Secret Service was charged $1,185 to lodge agents protecting Donald Trump Jr. The government rate was $201.
“It doesn’t take a lot to fool the —– trash of ——-….”
“Yea there are too many —– trash types…. Outside the perimeter lies a lot of very pretty areas which alas makes one vulnerable to the —– trash….”
“Don’t behave like —– trash, and I won’t call you —– trash….”
[ This is intolerable language. This is definitive destructive stereotyping. ]
…smiling lying —….
…lying —….
What a fat —!
—– demands that —- kiss his lilly —–….
[ Intolerably offensive language. ]
at least ltr has stopped calling any commentary s/he disagrees with racist.
i do wonder if ltr understands just how good s/he has it. ltr can post inflammatory commentary from ccp websites while on usa soil, and there is no retaliation against such actions. do you think i would be subject to the same freedoms if i posted anti-ccp commentary from beijing? would i be thrown in jail? tossed into those reeducation camps and tortured in west china? what says you, ltr?
Lael Brainard spoke this past week. Here are some tidbits:
“The transmission of tighter policy is most evident in highly interest-sensitive sectors like housing, where mortgage rates have more than doubled year to date and house price appreciation has fallen sharply over recent months and is on track to soon be flat. In other sectors, lags in transmission mean that policy actions to date will have their full effect on activity in coming quarters, and the effect on price setting may take longer.”
“The return of retail margins to more normal levels could meaningfully help reduce inflationary pressures in some consumer goods, considering that gross retail margins are about 30 percent of total sales dollars overall.
“For instance, among general merchandise retailers, where the real inventory-to-sales ratio is 20 percent above its pre-pandemic level, retail margins have increased 20 percent since the onset of the pandemic, roughly double the 9 percent increase in average hourly earnings by employees in that sector.”
“It will take time for the cumulative effect of tighter monetary policy to work through the economy broadly and to bring inflation down. In light of elevated global economic and financial uncertainty, moving forward deliberately and in a data-dependent manner will enable us to learn how economic activity, employment, and inflation are adjusting to cumulative tightening in order to inform our assessments of the path of the policy rates.”
So, we’ve got lags and we’ve got forward-looking analysis – they go together – but only standard language about data-dependency as any sort of recognition that a pause in rate hikes may be in order.
Brainard recognizes the inflationary impact of high profit margins – something we’ve been repeatedly told in comments that economists never talk about. We’ve also been told that nothing economists say counts unless it ends up in the press; Brainard’s comments about high margins were widely quoted, so I guess they count. So I guess economists do think about profit margins. Gavin Newsome has proposed an excess profits tax for energy companies. Brainard cannot do that unless asked In a Congressional hearing.
Moses, thought you’d like to see how your girl is doing.
Aaaaaaahhh!!!!!! “My girl” is in Dalian, Chaoyang, or surely some subset city of Liaoning. Uhm, I respect Brainard very much, and yes, I hope very much, she has deep thinking on “latent effect” (can I say “latent”??) or lagging effect of Fed decisions.
Hey Macroduck, I’m somewhat sauced now MacroDuck, did you ever watch an old British show (NOT the “new” one) that ran from 1978–1990?? “All Creatures Great And Small” Watch it. My father loved this show very much. I feel like I am the James Herriot (Christopher Timothy) guy, but I felt like Barkley Junior had me more as the Triston Farnon “type personality”. Can you you watch this show and tell me which guy I was nearest personality to??? I’ll not hold an ounce anger if your honest to what you saw it./
Your Brother always…. I almost gave my real name just now…….. Moses Herzog
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_Creatures_Great_and_Small_(1978_TV_series)
Just found it on YT for free – that’s the kind of guy I am. I’ll give it a try. Finished “Kleo” so I need new entertainment.
: ) It’s kinda slow paced by today’s tastes, persevere through one episode and I’ll let you off the hook. : )
“Brainard recognizes the inflationary impact of high profit margins – something we’ve been repeatedly told in comments that economists never talk about.”
She noted gross margins are near 30%, which begs a couple of questions: (1) what is the normal gross margin; (2) what is the typical operating expense to sales ratio for this sector. Yea if one knew (2), ascertaining (1) would be rather easy.
Of course, do not expect JohnH to have a clue about either one of my questions.
Some good news about a very brave Russian reporter:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/former-russian-journalist-ovsyannikova-fled-125427958.html
Former Russian state TV journalist Marina Ovsyannikova, accused of spreading “fake news” about the war in Ukraine, has fled the country after escaping from house arrest, her lawyer said on Monday.
Ovsyannikova is currently “under the protection of a European state”, lawyer Dmitry Zakhvatov said, declining to elaborate as “it may turn out to be a problem” for her.
Ovsyannikova captured world attention in March when she burst into the studio during a live TV broadcast with a placard that read “Stop the war” and “They’re lying to you”. The Kremlin denounced her protest as “hooliganism”.
The 44-year-old was given two months’ house arrest in August over a protest in July when she stood on a river embankment opposite the Kremlin and held up a poster calling President Vladimir Putin a murderer and his soldiers fascists.
Facing up to 10 years in prison on charges of spreading fake news about the Russian army, Ovsyannikova said in an online post on Oct. 5 she had fled house arrest because she had no case to answer. Her whereabouts since then have been unknown.
Zakhvatov said that Ovsyannikova’s daughter left the country with her, while her son remained in Russia. He declined to say where she was but told Reuters: “Soon everything will be made public. We need a couple of weeks.”
“It doesn’t take a lot to fool the —– trash of ——-….”
“Yea there are too many —– trash types…. Outside the perimeter lies a lot of very pretty areas which alas makes one vulnerable to the —– trash….”
“Don’t behave like —– trash, and I won’t call you —– trash….”
—– demands that —- kiss his lilly —–….
[ Being clear, this is definitive racism. Intolerably offensive language. ]
…smiling lying —….
…lying —….
What a fat —!
[ Repeatedly profane and intolerable language. ]
ahhh, there is the racism card. you did not pull it in your previous post, ltr. i was somewhat disappointed.
Who knew – Bruce Hall produced an ad that appeared during a MLB playoff game:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/column-that-unbelievably-racist-ad-during-the-dodgers-playoff-ex-trump-aides-were-behind-it/ar-AA1347xd?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=19dcdbf9124c45e1af319a9c5f312e0a
As if Dodger fans didn’t have enough to nauseate them during Saturday’s playoff game against the San Diego Padres, the telecast featured an openly racist commercial blaming President Biden and other Democrats for illegal immigration. Airing during the mid-fourth inning break of the game that eliminated the Dodgers from the post-season, the ad consisted of video images depicting a torrent of obviously Latino immigrants pouring over the border. “This giant flood of illegal immigration is draining your paychecks, wrecking your schools, ruining your hospitals, threatening your family,” stated the overwrought narrator, over the obligatory ominous soundtrack. “Mixed among the masses are drug dealers, sex traffickers and violent predators.” Vote to keep our borders, jails and bathrooms open. Who’s behind this commercial? The ad identifies its sponsor only as “Citizens for Sanity,” but that last line should give you a further clue: It’s an organization of several former Trump aides who spearheaded his administration’s attacks on immigrants.
Marjorie Taylor Greene pulls a “Bruce Hall”. Yes – that’s right she’s Christian but Rev. Warnock is not.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-questions-warnock-e2-80-99s-christian-faith-calls-being-a-pro-choice-pastor-an-e2-80-98abomination-e2-80-99/ar-AA133tfN
Funny thing – she is a flaming racist who does not mind pulling her gun out on teenagers but she’s the Christian. Bruce Hall logic at its finest!
Mr Hall,
Your comments about President Biden riling up inflation with excess spending fail in the face of a simple timeline.
The spending coming out as inflation today was enacted in 2020, not 2021.
The 2021 spending PLANS — not yet implemented — will kick in next year.
That’s how federal budgeting works.