Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-November

Industrial production declined 0.1% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.2. NFP employment rose in October strongly. Other key indicators followed by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 11/16 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 GDP is from GDPNow for 11/16. Lilac shading denotes a hypothetical recession in 2022H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (11/1/2022 release), GDPNow (11/16) and author’s calculations.

While industrial production declined, and manufacturing production rose only 0.1% vs. 0.2% m/m consensus, retail sales far exceeded expectations.

GDPNow as of today is for 4.382% q/q SAAR in Q4. Given the likely revisions in GDP and the evolution of GDO, it seems unlikely (still) to me that a recession occurred in 2022H1. A recession in 2023 however, seems likely given yield curve inversions and other predictors.

 

46 thoughts on “Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-November

  1. Macroduck

    Consumption is a bogger than normal deal in Q4. Hiring is stoking consumption. Net hiring is slowing, though still strong. Claims show firms are still hoarding workers – good for net employment. Assuming that continues, gross hires are the thing to watch. Gross hires are still running above 6 million per month, but slowing steadily.

    Fed research has pointed to the risk of an abrupt slowing in hiring in response to a rapid tightening of monetary conditions. Mian/Sufi/Verner warn of a slowing in consumer demand when consumption has been moved forward in time through credit use. We got both. That’s two domestic worries. Y’all can count non-domestic worries for yourselves.

      1. w

        It’s looking to me like Fed officials should just stfu. They come out with contradictory remarks and remarks which are either “well, duh” obvious or, worse, that seems to show little recognition of the effect the Fed is having. Perhaps this is another institution where, like the Supreme Court, the supposed adult-in-charge is no longer in charge.
        I would really enjoy a few years where the US steps out of crazytown and gets some normal work done but I’m afraid the circus will continue.

  2. rjs

    i show today’s revisions to Aug & Sept retail sales adding about 0.23 percentage points to Q3 GDP, today’s Aug & Sept retail inventories revisions adding 0.05 percentage points…previous GDP revisions were +0.65 percentage points to the 3 construction components of GDP, +0.13 percentage points from international trade in goods, +0.17 percentage points from international trade in services, and -0.22 percentage points from wholesale inventories….September factory inventories matched the source data used in the GDP report…note that since i don’t have PCE services, which is 46% of GDP, those revisions represent less than half of GDP…and i don’t have much confidence in my international trade in services estimate, since the GDP source data differs in in form from that in the trade report..

  3. Macroduck

    One issue that has been hinted at during the election, but rarely addressed head on, is stature. I feel it is time to clear the air and that a simple laying out offacts is the best approach.

    Tallest ever Member of the U.S. House
    Tom McMillan 6′ 11″, Represented Maryland’s 4th District, played ball for Oxford University, among others.

    Tallest ever member of the U.S. Senate
    Luther Strange, 6′ 9″, Alabama, appointed to succeed Jeff Sessions, 5″ 5″. Tulane basketball, mostly on the bench.

    Tallest ever elected to the U.S. Senate
    John Fetterman, 6′ 8″, Pennsylvania, offensive tackle, Albright College.

    Honorable Mention
    Alan Simpson, 6′ 7″, Senator from Wyoming. When told he had been supplanted as the tallest Senator, Simpson asked “What son of a bitch did that?” and was amused when “Luther Strange” was the answer.

    Honorable Mention
    Barbara Mikulski, 4′ 11″, Senator from Maryland.

    Honorable Mention
    Barbara Boxer, 4′ 11″, Senator from California.

    Honorable Mention
    Bill Bradley, 6′ 5″, Senator from New Jersey, two time NBA champion, 12.4 points per game. Choked in the 1992 prelims. Beaten in the early rounds, 2000.

    1. 2slugbaits

      I remember when Tom McMillan was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as the top high school prospect. He chose Maryland.

    2. Moses Herzog

      Hahahahaha, I love this comment so much. This is where Menzie’s tolerance for off-topic comments really enriches the blog.

    3. Moses Herzog

      Are there any Dr Oz recommended dietary supplements that can make me taller?? Mind you, I’m not referencing “ED”.

  4. Moses Herzog

    From TradingEconomics
    “Brent crude futures tumbled 3% to around $90 per barrel on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session as a weakening demand outlook retook center stage after geopolitical tensions eased. Renewed coronavirus outbreaks in top consumer China dashed hopes for a potential ending of its zero-Covid policy, thus clouding the outlook for demand in the world’s biggest crude importer. ”

    I believe the great philosopher Yogi Berra said it best when he said “It’s dejà vu all over again”

  5. pgl

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-former-economic-advisor-to-the-russian-government-breaks-down-the-telltale-signs-that-a-recent-anti-america-rally-in-moscow-was-staged-by-russian-authorities/ar-AA14daUZ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=1e8f848be57a4178850bee71d8858243

    The Kremlin asked a bunch of Russian losers to march in the streets of Moscow calling for Russia to launch nuclear strikes on the US. I would point out to these losers that if Putin did order such an attack, it would be the end of Moscow. But I hear JohnH was leading the charge from these losers so I guess he did need a bone from his master.

    1. Ivan

      Russia getting more and more desperate in their attempts to bully Ukraine and the West.

      Maybe their military production and supply lines are even more pathetic that they seem. They roughly seem to be producing/procuring about 10-15 missiles per day (based on how few they can fire after10 days of saving up). The air defense of Ukriaine shoot down about 65-70% of those missiles with current defenses. German and US systems currently being delivered is about 95-100% effective against the missiles. Even with current systems, Ukraine appears able to shoot down 90-100% of the Iranian drones. So the big plan of plunging Ukraine into a cold dark winter is heading straight for another humiliating failure. They have had to raid Bellarus for armored vehicles, get drones from Iran and shells from north Korea. The only thing they seem able to deliver from Russian production and supply stock, is cannon fodder “soldiers” so poorly trained and equipped that they are more likely than not to die at their first engagement with the enemy.

      I understand Milley’s concern that the Russian incompetence is not going to last forever, and that now may be the best time to begin negotiation from a point of Ukrainian strengths. He knows more about Ukraine’s weaknesses and our ability to sustain the flow of weapons they are going to need. But I cannot help but wondering if he is doing a head fake and his real concern is that Russia could implode into a USSR like break up with thousands of ICBM’s lost from any meaningful central control. Any breakaway region would look at what happened with Ukraine and learn that it is not a good idea to let go of nukes.

  6. pgl

    Hershel Walker has a seriously retarded brain:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/herschel-walker-veered-off-in-a-campaign-speech-to-rant-about-werewolves-killing-vampires/ar-AA14cqZ3?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=54477bbbc68d40cea4ea823ae371417d

    “I don’t know if you know, but vampires are some cool people, are they not?” the congressional candidate said. “But let me tell you something that I found out: A werewolf can kill a vampire. Did you know that? I never knew that.” “So, I don’t want to be a vampire anymore,” Walker added, without further context. “I want to be a werewolf.”

    Vampires and werewolf? OK maybe he is not as retarded as Congressman Jim Jordan who will waste the time of the House looking at every little thing on Hunter Biden’s laptop. MAGA!

  7. pgl

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mitch-mcconnell-votes-against-interracial-marriage-despite-asian-wife/ar-AA14djUX?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=1860d77df1334bdda2ac9a8b9fb6a997

    Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell voted against legislation that would protect interracial marriages on Wednesday, despite the fact that he’s married to an Asian American woman.

    Seriously Mitch? You can marry a non-white woman but no one else is allowed to? Oh well Clarence Thomas seems to be opposed to interracial marriages too but given how ugly Ginny is – can you blame him?

  8. pgl

    Now I choose not to listen to Trump’s little speech the other day but am catching up on some of the whoppers including his claim that he won the trade war with China:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-touted-28-billion-aid-to-farmers-in-his-speech-the-biggest-beneficiary-was-a-corrupt-brazilian-firm-with-ties-to-the-maduro-regime/ar-AA14bV3C?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=201c094411274ec8a59e7fa957d410d1

    At the beginning of former President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign announcement speech Tuesday evening, he touted what he considered several accomplishments of his time in the White House, including a $28 billion bailout to American farmers hurt by a trade war with China, but over $100 million of that money went to a subsidiary of a Brazilian company with a corrupt and troubling history.

    During the speech, Trump bragged that China was “reeling and back on its heels” from the heavy tariffs his administration had imposed. “You had never seen that before,” he claimed. “The United States was outdoing them on every front and China was paying billions and billions of dollars in taxes and tariffs. The farmers know that because they got 28 billion of it. No president had ever sought or received one dollar for our country from China until I came along.”

    OK – it is a lie that we never received any tariff revenues from previous tariff regimes. And China did not pay those tariffs. Americans paid them. And China had us reeling back on our heels but never mind this total blovating BS and let’s get back to how Trump’s largesse ended up in the pockets of corrupt Brazilians:

    But “[w]hat was meant to be a financial lifeline for struggling farmers has been widely derided by critics as a corporate bailout for big agriculture companies and those who live in metropolitan areas but own farms in rural America,” wrote Maggie Haberman and Alan Rappeport for The New York Times, and more eyebrows were raised by the millions of dollars sent to American subsidiaries of foreign agricultural conglomerates. The program’s single biggest beneficiary was JBS USA, the Colorado-based American subsidiary of JBS S.A., a Brazilian company that is the world’s largest meat processing company, handling beef, chicken, pork, and by-products from those meats. The largest shareholder of JBS S.A. is a holding company called J&F Investimentos that is solely owned by Joesley Batista and Wesley Batista, the sons of company founder José Batista Sobrinho. The two brothers’ net worth is estimated to be over $6 billion. According to reporting by Chris Sommerfeldt at the New York Daily News, JBS USA “raked in at least $140.3 million in Trump administration bailouts,” paid out over a series of contracts to purchase its pork products despite mounting bipartisan objections to taxpayer funds intended for “struggling American farmers” going to a foreign company with a” long history of corruption.” The Batistas were “a couple of notoriously corrupt Brazilian brothers who have spent time in jail and admitted to bribing hundreds of government officials in their home country,” wrote Sommerfeldt in a Jan. 10, 2020 article, with their business operations being investigated by the Department of Justice and vociferously criticized by members of Congress from both sides of the aisle.

    For an ex-President who loves to brag about being “America First,” in reality this program was actually “Corrupt Brazilian Billionaires First.”

    1. Ivan

      Trump is staring in a TV show of his own making up. He literally doesn’t care about facts and reality. He simply postulates whatever looks/sounds good and places him in the role of hero and competent statesman. He says words. The fact that those words have no connection to reality is not a concern for him, because it is not a concern for those who cheer him on.

      At his announcement at Mar-A-Largo they had to block the doors to prevent people in the room from leaving – talk about a captured audience of a boring speech.

  9. ltr

    https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/the-gdp-outlook-nowcast-vs-forecast#comment-289382

    November 14, 2022

    One person who does not support the rights of other people of his ethnic group is, ahem, ———-. Maybe we should call Herschel Walker a “———-” rather than an “Uncle Tom.”

    https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/the-gdp-outlook-nowcast-vs-forecast#comment-289412

    November 15, 2022

    I must apologize. Of course “———-” is not an appropriate term to use in place of “Uncle Tom.” The latter term refers to somebody supposedly selling out their own kind to a dominating other group.

    [ That the racial demeaning of a political figure should be defended, then falsely and prejudicially compounded, is distressing. ]

    1. ltr

      https://www.theguardian.com/books/2002/mar/30/race.society

      March 30, 2002

      Uncle Tom stands up to Simon Legree

      “And now,” said Legree, “come here, you Tom. You see, I telled ye I didn’t buy ye jest for the common work; I mean to promote ye, and make a driver of ye; and to-night ye may jest as well begin to get yer hand in. Now, ye jest take this yer gal and flog her; ye’ve seen enough on’t to know how.”

      “I beg Mas’r’s pardon,” said Tom; “hopes Mas’r won’t set me at that. It’s what I an’t used to, – never did, – and can’t do, no way possible.”

      “‘Ye’ll larn a pretty smart chance of things ye never did know, before I’ve done with ye!” said Legree, taking up a cowhide, and striking Tom a heavy blow cross the cheek, and following up the infliction by a shower of blows.

      “There!” he said, as he stopped to rest; “now, will ye tell me ye can’t do it?”

      “Yes, Mas’r,” said Tom, putting up his hand, to wipe the blood, that trickled down his face. “I’m willin’ to work, night and day, and work while there’s life and breath in me; but this yer thing I can’t feel it right to do; – and, Mas’r, I never shall do it, – never!”

      Tom had a remarkably smooth, soft voice, and a habitually respectful manner, that had given Legree an idea that he would be cowardly, and easily subdued. When he spoke these last words, a thrill of amazement went through every one; the poor woman clasped her hands, and said, “O Lord!” and every one involuntarily looked at each other and drew in their breath, as if to prepare for the storm that was about to burst.

      Legree looked stupefied and confounded; but at last burst forth, “What! ye blasted black beast! tell me ye don’t think it right to do what I tell ye! What have any of you cussed cattle to do with thinking what’s right? I’ll put a stop to it! Why, what do ye think ye are? May be ye think yer a gentleman master, Tom, to be a telling your master what’s right, and what ain’t! So you pretend it’s wrong to flog the gal!”

      “I think so, Mas’r,” said Tom; “‘the poor crittur’s sick and feeble; ‘t would be downright cruel, and it’s what I never will do, nor begin to. Mas’r, if you mean to kill me, kill me; but, as to my raising my hand agin any one here, I never shall, – I’ll die first!”

      Tom spoke in a mild voice, but with a decision that could not be mistaken. Legree shook with anger…

      “Well, here’s a pious dog, at last, let down among us sinners! – a saint, a gentleman, and no less, to talk to us sinners about our sins! Powerful holy critter, he must be! Here, you rascal, you make believe to be so pious, – didn’t you never hear, out of yer Bible, ‘Servants, obey yer masters’? An’t I yer master? Didn’t I pay down twelve hundred dollars, cash, for all there is inside yer old cussed black shell? An’t yer mine, now, body and soul?” he said, giving Tom a violent kick with his heavy boot; “tell me!”

      In the very depth of physical suffering, bowed by brutal oppression, this question shot a gleam of joy and triumph through Tom’s soul. He suddenly stretched himself up, and, looking earnestly to heaven, while the tears and blood that flowed down his face mingled, he exclaimed: “No! no! no! my soul an’t yours, Mas’r! You haven’t bought it, ye can’t buy it! It’s been bought and paid for, by one that is able to keep it; no matter, no matter, you can’t harm me!”

      “I can’t!” said Legree, with a sneer; “we’ll see, we’ll see!”

      From Uncle Tom’s Cabin Or, Life Among The Lowly
      By Harriet Beecher Stowe

    2. Barkley Rosser

      ltr,

      Another reason it was inappropriate to name the leader of China as someone whose name might replace that of Uncle Tom is that non only is he not part of a group being dominated by others, but he is the leader of a group that is dominating others, such as the Uyhurs. Someone from that group that would sell out their fellow mwmbers to the Han Chinese might be a candidate, but I do not know the identity of any such individual.

      As it is, there are thousands of Han Chinese who are political prisoners in the PRC, so it is not just minority groups who get badly treated.

      1. ltr

        Another reason it was inappropriate to name….

        [ Writing falsely with the intent of fostering prejudice is always inappropriate, always shameful. ]

        1. Barkley Tosser

          ltr,te

          You should know better than to accuse me of “writing falsely.” I have now I have double checked, and numerous internationally recognized sources have documented China as having one of the world’s largest populations of political prisoners, with probably only North Korea exceeding it. One outfit providing a specific number is the Du Hua Political Prisoner Data Base, which has been tracking specific individuals in China since 1980. As of June 30, 2022 their count is 46,717. This includes people criticizing the Chinese leadership usually charged with “subversion,” people engaged in disapproved of religious practices, ethnic minority members accused of “splittism,” and those petitioning the government regarding specific grievances. A majority are Han Chinese, and the most notorious political prison is Quincheng in Beijing.

          Two other groups keeping track of this more globally but also in China include Freedom Watch and Human Rights Watch. The latter notes that those criticizing the government usually get even longer sentences than what were given out in the Soviet Union under Leonid Brezhnev. A fairly recent case, dating to 2021 is the Han Chinese entrepreneur Ren Zhiqiang who wrote that Xi Jinping is “a clown who loves power.” He got an 18 year sentence fot that.

          So, lte, you are the one weiting. Do not lie about you. It is bad for your soul, although maybe yiou do not give a damn about that.

          1. Barkley Tosser

            Sorry about typos. Next to last sentence should read “So, ltr, you are the one writing falsely.” Of course, very few readers here will be surprised by that, even though when you are not writing about China you are usually scrupulously accurate about matters regarding data, as I have personally attested to and praised you for on numerous occasions here.

            Would you like to defend that 18 year sentence given to Ren Zhiqiang? Hey, at least he did not compare Xi to Winnie the Pooh, which I gather it is illegal to do.

            You should be ashamed of yourself, lir, deeply ashamed of yourself.

    3. ltr

      Another reason it was inappropriate to name the leader of —–…

      As it is, there are thousands of — ——- who are political prisoners in the —, so it is not just minority groups who get badly treated.

      [ This is of course false, as the entire comment is false.

      Writing with the evident intent to foster antipathy and racism is really unfortunate. ]

  10. pgl

    Here is another downside of how little Lindsey and racist Trump promote their “boy” Hershel Walker:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/commentator-ripped-for-saying-herschel-walker-talks-like-countless-blacks/ar-AA14eFHq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=073557499d764280968a3a95f7c3fee7

    “A commentator who compared Herschel Walker’s so-called “stupid” speech to that of “countless Blacks in the Deep South” has earned intense scorn—largely from Black people who come from the South. Michael Tracey, a journalist and recurring guest on the Fox News show Tucker Carlson Tonight, tweeted his response to critics of Georgia’s GOP Senate candidate on Wednesday night. “Herschel Walker doesn’t come across as the ideal US Senator, but the main reason he’s called ‘stupid’ seems to be because he speaks in a heavy regional dialect, with lots of colloquialisms. This alone does not make him ‘stupid’––he sounds like countless Blacks in the Deep South,” said Tracey.

    As a white guy who grew up in Georgia lets me suggest that people like Michael Tracey be banned from all television and social media. Yea – he is one of Tucker Carlson’ disgusting guests, which I guess gives him license to say such utterly pathetic and incorrect BS. Most of my black friends when I was growing up at ten times smarter than the racist morons who watch Tucker Carlson.

    Hershel Walker has become an utter embarrassment to black people, to the citizens of Georgia, to his own kids (who he does not give a damn about), and the Christian religion that he pretends to believe in.

  11. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-11-17/China-Space-Station-Shenzhou-14-crew-begins-third-spacewalk-1f1K3LRtwxW/index.html

    November 17, 2022

    Space Log: Shenzhou-14 crew sets up ‘space bridge’ between cabins in third spacewalk

    China’s Shenzhou-14 astronauts, or taikonauts, completed their third round of extravehicular activities (EVAs) and set up a vestibule between cabins on Thursday, according to the China Manned Space Agency.

    It was the first round of EVAs for the crew after the assembly of the station’s basic T-shape configuration.

    Taikonauts Chen Dong and Cai Xuzhe exited the cabin, and Liu Yang stayed inside the cabin for support. The EVAs lasted around 5.5 hours.

    During the EVAs, the two taikonauts outside the cabin worked together and installed a connection “bridge” between the three modules that could assist taikonauts with crawling outside the module and better stabilize the station’s T-shaped structure.

    Cai, who only had his first space walk in September, tried the first cross-module walk using this bridge.

    Li Wei, deputy designer in charge of China Space Station General System with the China Academy of Space Technology, told CGTN that such equipment could help widen taikonauts’ scope of activities.

    “Without this piece of equipment, taikonauts cannot move on their own from Wentian module to Tianhe core module or Mengtian module. Now, our taikonauts will be able to move around easier,” Li said. “It doubles the distance the taikonauts can travel to.”

    Li said this spacewalk also stood out as “the first spacewalk supported by all the three-module assembly.” …

    1. ltr

      The repeated successes of the Chinese space program, especially the completion of an “international space station” are important socially and culturally and also economically as the United States sought to limit or undermine Chinese efforts at space exploration with the Wolf Amendment in 2011. The point of the US was to prevent Chinese scientists and engineers from working with NASA:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_Amendment

  12. ltr

    https://english.news.cn/20221117/eac5830d592d4410830aa486304dd86a/c.html

    November 17, 2022

    China’s FDI inflow up 14.4 pct in first 10 months

    BEIJING — Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Chinese mainland, in actual use, expanded 14.4 percent year on year to nearly 1.09 trillion yuan in the first 10 months of 2022, the Ministry of Commerce said Thursday.

    In U.S. dollar terms, the inflow went up 17.4 percent year on year to 168.34 billion U.S. dollars.

    The service industry saw FDI inflow jump by 4.8 percent year on year to 798.84 billion yuan, while that of high-tech industries surged by 31.7 percent from a year earlier, data from the ministry showed.

    Specifically, FDI in high-tech manufacturing rose 57.2 percent from the same period a year ago, while that in the high-tech service sector surged 25 percent year on year.

    During this period, investment from the Republic of Korea, Germany, Britain and Japan climbed by 106.2 percent, 95.8 percent, 40.1 percent, and 36.8 percent, respectively.

    FDI flowing into the country’s central region reported a year-on-year increase of 33.6 percent, followed by 26.9 percent in the western region and 12.4 percent in the eastern region.

  13. ltr

    http://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/the-gdp-outlook-nowcast-vs-forecast#comment-289301

    November 12, 2020

    —– Fartoboloma interviews Hershel. Hershel “they” want to separate us. WTF are you talking about Hershel – oh yea your slave masters are the ones who want to separate us. And of course Hershel is doing their bidding.

    https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/business-cycle-indicators-at-mid-november#comment-289468

    November 17, 2020

    Oh well ——– —— seems to be opposed to interracial marriages too but given how ugly Ginny is – can you blame him?

    [ Beyond shameful. ]

    1. pgl

      If you want to promote homophobia just say so. Me – I will call out homophobes, racists, and other spreaders of hate.

      1. CoRev

        “I will call out homophobes, racists, and other spreaders of hate.” said the most hateful commenter here. Yet he is till allowed to comment?

    2. ltr

      http://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/the-gdp-outlook-nowcast-vs-forecast#comment-289301

      November 12, 2020

      —– Fartoboloma interviews Hershel. Hershel “they” want to separate us. WTF are you talking about Hershel – oh yea your slave masters are the ones who want to separate us. And of course Hershel is doing their bidding.

      https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/business-cycle-indicators-at-mid-november#comment-289468

      November 17, 2020

      Oh well ——– —— seems to be opposed to interracial marriages too but given how ugly Ginny is – can you blame him?

      [ Such language is beyond shameful. ]

  14. ltr

    http://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/the-gdp-outlook-nowcast-vs-forecast#comment-289365

    November 14, 2020

    I’m looking forward to —– sending men out to the Moon and Mars. The funny thing about manned spaced missions?? When there’s an F— up, and something happens with people who copy technology from other nations but do very little to boost problem solving skills that must be done improvised in space exploration?? Space travel is not an exam based on rote style learning testing a person’s memorization ability. I have to confess there’s a sadistic part of me that says it will be fun to watch…

    [ Such is being altogether consumed by prejudice. Distressing and frightening. ]

    1. Macroduck

      You know what’s distressing and frightening? Slave labor in China’s factories. China’s internment of Uyghurs. China’s invasion of Tibet. China’s threats toward Taiwan.

      You know what’s disgusting? A propagandist in the pay of China condemning the exercise of free speech.

  15. AS

    Have any readers looked at the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index related to the Industrial Production Index?
    It looks like the six-month lagged Philadelphia Index lines-up fairly well with the Y/Y percent change in the Industrial Production Index. As mentioned on the Philadelphia Fed’s website, “Although the [Philadelphia Fed.] survey’s future indexes rose slightly, they continued to suggest that the firms expect overall declines in activity and new orders six months from now.”
    Using the Philadelphia Fed. Manufacturing Index, including the October m/m decline of 19.4%,
    I show the forecasts below for Y/Y the Industrial Production Index.
    2022M11…101.4***2.6% Y/Y increase
    2022M12…105.0***3.2%
    2023M01…105.1***2.9%
    2023M02…104.9***2.0%
    2023M03…105.2***1.67%
    2023M04…102.2***(2.0) % Y/Y decrease
    2023M05…102.8***(1.3) %

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ AS
      PPI for October was down. They give different reasons for components such as utilities output, which is connected to weather. The forecast you quote above seems very optimistic to me, but I hope they end up being right. Maybe if the supply chain problem fixes itself that would account for the optimistic numbers?? Just at a “gut level” the forecast numbers strike me as overly optimistic.

      1. Macroduck

        I appreciate the quotation marks around “no”, suggesting an underlying dishonesty to the claim.

        Can’t manage what you don’t measure. Obviously, Xi didn’t want the implicit criticism of Covid deaths ahead of his coronation. Refusal to acknowledge Covid deaths almost certainly means additional, unnecessary Covid deaths.

        Question now is whether Xi will allow the resumption of the reporting of ridiculously low deaths, or stick with pretending China has no Covid deaths.

  16. pgl

    Little Lindsey does not want equal marriage for gays as he is content in just fooling around:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/lindsey-graham-proudly-votes-against-%e2%80%9cgay-marriage%e2%80%9d-bill-and-internet-tells-him-to-sit-back-down/ar-AA14ebXJ

    Graham took to Twitter to explain his reasons, saying the bill doesn’t offer enough protection for religious liberty. “I just voted against the “Respect for Marriage Act” that is supposed to protect gay marriage without creating risks to religious freedom and religious institutions,” Graham said.

    The replies to little Lindsey’s twitter rant were priceless!

    1. w

      You lost me with “I guess Marjorie thinks…”
      There is no “thinking” involved and she does not in any way believe that claim. It is a statement intended to have emotional appeal to a certain group; she understands that full well.

        1. Moses Herzog

          I have read statements which indicate her inner circle believe she herself doesn’t even necessarily harbor the thoughts in her own mind, but that she uses it as a means to an end~~~pushing buttons of a largely ignorant regional electorate to get X reaction. This has even been found to be the case among high ranking leaders of white supremacy groups. Kind of a Mike Lindell, Joel Osteen brand of racism. Opportunistic. In Greene’s case I am inclined to believe this is exactly the case.

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