The GDP Outlook: Nowcast vs. Forecast

Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 4% q/q in Q4.

Figure 1: GDP as reported (black), WSJ October survey (red), GDPNow (tan square), and Goldman Sachs (green triangle), all in bn. Chained 2012$, SAAR. . Source: BEA 2022Q3 advance, WSJ, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs (11/9/2022), and author’s calculations.

In the short term, the decline in reported GDP seems over. It’s important to recall that we will get a better read on GDP, and insight into GDO, with the next release at end November. For now, here are the other measures of GDP from the income side (GDI), and the average of expenditure and income sides (i.e., GDO).

Figure 2: GDP as reported (black), GDPNow (tan square), GDI (pink), and GDO (teal), all in bn. Chained 2012$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2022Q3 advance, WSJ, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs (11/9/2022), and author’s calculations.


164 thoughts on “The GDP Outlook: Nowcast vs. Forecast

  1. pgl

    GDI up each quarter and a very slight decline in GDP for a short period of time with increases in the rest of the year. And Princeton Steve went on and on and on that we had a RECESSION. His BFF JohnH at first wanted to defend Stevie but now he is accusing the adults in the room about being obsessed with this issue? Sorry little Johnny – but your BFF is an adult and neither are you.

    1. JohnH

      pgl is still whining about this? And he claims that he’s not obsessed with the issue? Ha!

      Maybe now he’d like to try to convince us (again) that he “really cares” about real wages by citing a comment of his on that subject (written a year ago!)

      Will he now explain that his “benign neglect” was actually proof of his really caring?

      1. pgl

        Gee – your comments have become more worthless than Econned’s. I guess the two of you do this as neither one of you knows how to make an honest intelligent comment about actual economics.

      2. Macroduck

        Johnny? Johnny, you were one of the troll choir’s loudest recession cheerleaders. Now that you aren’t getting your wish, you scold others for discussing recession? You do realize this is an economics blog, and that recession is a big focus of attention right now, world wide?

        Grow up, Johnny. You were wrong. Own it and move on.

        1. pgl

          Johnny was also the biggest fans of Cameron’s fiscal austerity as he was so upset of DEFICITS and INFLATION. Yea he denies this now but go read the excellent blog posts from Simon Wren-Lewis who blasted Cameron’s policies. JohnH refused to read them back in the day as he had to send adoring comments to Cameron.

        2. JohnH

          MacroDucky… I’m surprised you all are not arguing about whether GDP will come in at 3.9% or 4.1%. [Yawn…)

          Now that election silly season is past, I expected that all those discussions would die down. I guess not ! And pgl will doubtlessly dredge up stuff from 2015-2016, in order to show that I lied because his impressions of the 2010-2015 period were at odds with my well documented 2015-2016 data! Go figure!

          Next you all will go count the number of angels that can fit on the head of a pin?

          1. pgl

            You can lie to the cows come home but your BS over Cameron is thoroughly rebutted at Simon Wren Lewis’s excellent blog. Now if you think you know more than he does about the UK macroeconomy – then you are dumber than we give you credit for.

          2. pgl

            BTW “my impressions” are consistent with what the adults in the room noted about the UK economy at the time and the well documented evidence that little babies like you kept denying and misrepresenting.

  2. Macroduck

    China is repotedly easing quarantine rules. That should help the global outlook.

    The NRF forecasts retail sale to be up between 6% and 8% this year over last. The average gain over the past ten years has been 4.9%, so in inflation-adjusted terms, that forecast ain’t great. The NRF anticipates a drawdown of savings o fund holiday sales:

    GDPNow puts real PCE growth in Q4 at 4%, which looks to me doable based on the NRF view, but needs health PCE services consumption.

    1. Barkley Rosser


      It may be with Xi having gotten himself confirmed for this third five year term as General Secretary and Chair of the Military Commission, along with fully stacking both the Politburo and its Standing Committee with total loyalists, he can ease up a bit. Would certainly improve the economic prospects if he does so.

      1. pgl

        Donald Trump has already annoited Xi king for life. Of course Donald wants to learn from Xi how he can be king here.

    2. Ivan

      The expected explosion in case numbers has already shown up in the official data. I doubt that their reporting will get to a normal rate of death per 1000 cases. Maybe it will get a little less absurd than it is right now. They are in for a tough winter – I hope they have readied their hospitals and health care systems for the onslaught.

  3. pgl

    Listening to the latest from MSNBC for whatever that is worth but they are suggesting there is a good chance that the Senate races in both Arizona and Nevada will go Dem. Not saying that I necessarily believe that but it if that turns out to be the case – then the Dems reach 50 even without Georgia. Which means the Republican big donors will not invest in their Uncle Tom Hershel Walker and Warnock who is a real Senator goes back to Washington. That would be a wonderful thing.

    1. Ivan

      Arizona was called for the Dems. Now they just need one of the two remaining (Nevada or Georgia’s re-run).

  4. Moses Herzog

    Someone can correct me if I’m wrong but I think Kotek is only the 2nd openly lesbian woman to win a state governorship.

    I consider myself to be “tolerant”. I’m not exactly “pro” LGBTQ etc. I’m old school in my thinking. But neither do I think they should be persecuted or “cut off” from occupations, fields or spheres of life. So I’m glad she got the chance if she can do more than sit around and play minority status as an “accomplishment”.

    1. Ivan

      That comment was a little to “old school” for me, Uncle Moses.

      If a white male had won, would you have written that you were “glad he got the chance if he can do more than sit around and play majority status as an “accomplishment” ?

      1. Moses Herzog

        No, I wouldn’t have. Any other things that you “get off” being upset about?? Make a list and I’ll do my best to hit ALL the notes.

      2. Barkley Rosser

        Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is well into her second term as a senator and is an open lesbian, although when was the last time any of you heard that mentioned? She has been a leader on the health care issue and seems to be pretty popular in swingy Wisconsin. I suspect both of these two new governors will soon be mostly heard about regarding specific issues they deal with other than their sewxual identities, which will probably fade into the backgrounds pretty much.

    2. JohnH

      Kotek is replacing Kate Brown, who was openly bi-sexual. And the mayor of Portland is gay.

      Out there it’s no big deal. They have more important things to do…like putting a tax on revenues of businesses doing $1 million or more in the state. Of course, Dems had strong majorities in both houses…and capitalized on them…unlike the hapless DC Democrats, who are a corrupt corporatist party that positions itself just to the left of DC Republicans.

      I voted Democratic when I lived there.

        1. pgl

          Russia does not have income inequality issues according to Johnny boy at Putin has his riches and Johnny gets his daily bone.

        2. JohnH

          You remember Bill Clinton? You remember how his acolytes trashed Russia and handed it over to oligarchs? That was Democrats’ democracy promotion program in Russia!

          Come to think of it…handing the US economy over to oligarchs so they can loot it is what Democrats (and Republicans) here are all about…

          1. Barkley Rosser


            Russians handed their own nation over to their oligarchs. People coming in from US were strictly sideshow advisers. They did not “do” it. Yo are really seriously deluded about pretty much all things regarding Russia.

          2. pgl

            Why do you insist on letting us know you are the dumbest troll ever? Yeltsin turned Russia over to his oligarch friends before Clinton even took office. Or have you still not read Stiglitz’s Who Lost Russia?

            Of course Putin changed all of that taking the Russian oil and mining wealth aways from the friends of Yeltsin and handing it over his buddies. Which of course are the same oligarchs who support you disgusting life style in the Kremlin shilling for Putin’s war crimes in Ukraine and maybe now Poland.

          3. baffling

            the Russian troll trying to rewrite history, yet AGAIN. well done John. lets distract from the cluster… that is Russia today.

    1. Moses Herzog

      There’s higher than a 50% chance Cortez Masto will overtake the lead with the remaining “precincts” or counties. Most likely they end up with 51. Arguably they’re even ahead of where they were before losing the House. Pelosi is completely ineffectual as a majority leader, no loss there, and they get the administration cabinet appointees and judges much easier with the Senate. I would still love to see Susan Rice get a high ranking State Dept or Defense Dept post. I don’t know if you need 51 or 60 for appointees after they get out of committee or whatever, but I assume it becomes much easier.

      1. pgl

        50 Dems is enough for Schumer to get the nominations to the floor of the Senate. Of course having Warnock make it 51 sort of neuters the Manchin veto.

        1. Barkley Rosser


          Well, there is still Sinema also, so she with Manchin can still cause trouble, but only one of them will not be able to do so. I am surprised that Moses has not gotten on Sinema’s case, whose annoying behavior he could assign to her open bisexuality. But no, he is too busy making stupid baseless slams at Nancy Pelosi, the most productive House Speaker we have seen in decades

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            You’ve long held out the stance that you are the only person on this blog allowed to criticize women who have chosen a career in public life, in high profile jobs, and are apparently of the view that the rest of us “commoners” should treat women who have made the choice of a public life of their own volition—like they are children as a way to show them “respect”. If I have omitted criticizing Sinema here, it’s only because I wish so desperately, and with fealty to you Junior to fulfill you and Menzie’s deep hope for my “progression” of treating fully adult women who have chosen lives in the public eye, as “public servants”, as if they were in their first year of grade school.

            I still feel, mostly, they should be able to handle crossfire. But I guess that is why you are here Barkley, as the only living human to be”fully certified” to criticize female public servants. The same person who”humble bragged” here multiple times, like they were multiple gold medal Olympians, of your Rosser ancestors’ connection to the Confederacy. HILARIOUS.

          2. Moses Herzog

            It appears I made at least one comment about Kyrsten Sinema. Interestingly enough, when I was asking why more prominent economists weren’t defending and speaking out to support a minority female’s appointment to an important cabinet job,


            I guess Barkley, Menzie, and anyone else I have ever had the unmitigated gall to disagree with on “issue X” had forgotten the many times I have defended females on this blog. Including Barkley’s one time accusing me of only defending physically attractive women. Yes, I confess I only like those young magazine centerfolds like janet Yellen and Alice Rivlin, etc ad nauseam. You sh*t-heads have gone and “busted” my hidden motives once again. Darn.

            Apparently Barkley is having another moment of mild dementia—if you scroll down that thread~~~Barkley replied to that very same comment where I was discussing how Sinema was being falsely portrayed by the WSJ

          3. Barkley Rosser


            Oh dear, you seem to have become completely unhinged here. And I went and retracted my charge you are homophobic and even praised you for providing useful links to various people here. Or maybe you did not see that before you posted this wild rant, or maybe you do not care or are just too hurt by me pointing out the near insanity of your obsessive attacks on Pelose.

            As it is, your link does not seem to help you out at all. I noted that it was reported that “centrist” Sinema helped bring down Omarova, whom I defended. You somehow yet again turned the whole thing into an attack on Pelosi, who most definitely was NOT the person who did Omarava in, while it was mostly people in the Senate, mostly GOPs like LA’s Kennedy, although reportedly with Sinema’s assistance. I am a bad guy for noting that”

            Also note, please, that in this bit you linked to, Menzie criticized you for the way you were carrying on. Wow, you are losing it almost as badly as “Anonymous,” who seems to have become almost completely incoherent here now.

          4. Barkley Rosser


            On the matter of Sinema, in your link you somehow suggested that I had supported an inaccurate accusation by the WSJ that Sinema played an important role in doing Omarova in. Well, I have just checked on that, simple googling, and if anything various sources such as Axios, The Hill, and Politico assign her an even more central role in it. She may actually have been more important even than Kennedy with his accusations that she is a “Communist.” He id a joke and not in the party that controls the Senate. But Sinema?

            Oh, but of course, as your link shows, you somehow think it was Pelosi who did Omarova in, while Simena was some poor innocent wrongly accused by the WSJ and big bad me. Sheesh, you are seriously losing it.

  5. ltr

    Which means the Republican big donors will not invest in their Uncle Tom….

    [ This is a false, racist insult that is being repeatedly used. This is insistent, intolerable racism. ]

    1. ltr

      March 30, 2002

      Don’t blame Uncle Tom
      The hero of a novel published 150 years ago has become a byword for black betrayal and subservience. But has he been misrepresented?
      By Gary Younge – Guardian

      In a nation bitterly split and destined for civil war on this very issue, the book’s publication, not to mention its success, provoked a vicious reaction. “Uncle Tom’s Cabin was the epicentre of a massive cultural phenomenon,” writes Richard Yarborough, a California-based academic, in his essay: Strategies of black characterisation in Uncle Tom’s Cabin, “the tremors of which still affect the relationship between blacks and whites in the United States.”

      In the 19th century, the editor of the Southern Literary Messenger instructed his reviewer: “I would have the review as hot as hellfire, blasting and searing the reputation of the vile wretch in petticoats who could write such a volume.”

      Within two years, pro-slavery writers had answered Uncle Tom’s Cabin with at least 15 novels, similarly polemical in style but arguing that slaves in the south were better off than free workers in the north. One of these novels was called Uncle Robin In His Cabin In Virginia And Tom Without One In Boston.

      When Abraham Lincoln met Stowe in 1862, one year into the American civil war, he greeted her with the words: “So you’re the little woman who wrote the book that made this great war.” But the novel’s impact was global rather than national. Among those who hailed it as a masterpiece were Ivan Turgenev, Victor Hugo, Leo Tolstoy and George Eliot. The British prime minister, Lord Palmerston, read it three times and admired it not so much for the story as “for the statesmanship of it”….

      1. pgl

        “similarly polemical in style but arguing that slaves in the south were better off than free workers in the north.”

        The opening of Dani Rodrik’s Economist Rules sets this canard straight. Blacks in Atlanta after the Confederacy collapsed may have done OK but only because Atlanta had to pay market wages to rebuild after the Sherman burning. But it was not until the 1996 Olympics that blacks in Atlanta finally got their real opportunity.

        Now go to the Back Bay of Boston’s Amtrak station which has one placard after another of how blacks found opportunities even that there are still parts of Boston that are racist.

        Life is complicated now as it was before 1860. Of course Donald Trump thinks the world was ideal in 1850. MAGA.

      1. Moses Herzog

        I miss Jerry Burns. One of the greatest. They don’t make them like Burns anymore. Broke the cookie cutter. Er something.

    2. Macroduck

      Says ltr, defender of the second-ranked slave-holding county in the world. When you stop defending your racist masters, you’ll have at least some ground to stand on in complaining about racism. Not before.

      I repeat:

      “Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother’s eye.”

    3. Moses Herzog

      “At least 150 people have died over the course of six months while detained at an internment camp for mainly ethnic Uyghurs in northwest China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), according to an official source, marking the first confirmation of mass deaths since the camps were introduced in 2017.

      A police officer confirmed the figure while RFA’s Uyghur Service was investigating unconfirmed reports that more than 200 people from a township in Aksu (in Chinese, Akesu) prefecture’s Kuchar (Kuche) county had died in detention.

      The officer at the Kuchar County Police Department said that at least 150 had died at just one of the county’s four internment camps—the No. 1 Internment Camp in the Yengisher district of the county seat, about 10 kilometers (six miles) from Kuchar city center.

      ‘No, you cannot say that [200 died from Ucha township]’ said the officer, who declined to be named, but previously served for six months as an administrative assistant at the camp in Yengisher.

      ‘Not that many—it’s more like 150 or so [from No. 1 Camp],’ he said, adding that the deaths had occurred from June to December 2018, during the time he was assigned to the facility. He was unable to provide information about any deaths that might have occurred at the camp prior to the time he worked there or after he left.

      The officer’s claim represents the largest number of detention-related deaths at any one internment camp since RFA first reported the existence of the XUAR’s vast network of camps, where authorities have held up to 1.5 million Uyghurs and other Muslim ethnic minorities accused of harboring “strong religious views” and “politically incorrect” ideas beginning in April 2017. “

    4. pgl

      Look I normally abhor the term Uncle Tom but Hershel Walker sets the rights of blacks to the 1850’s. I grew up in the New South so I have the right to slam attempts to take us back to the Confederacy. Sorry ltr – the true racists are the clowns who have put up Hershel as the role model.

    5. Macroduck

      Uh, Oh! China’s slavery problem is creating a trade problem:

      Shocking, no?

      I’ve scanned the trade-policy news over the years, and slavery does come up now and then. China’s practice of slavery is on a different scale, a scale large enough to show up in trade statistics. If only some Goody Two Shoes would focus on China’s racist slave problem.

  6. ltr

    Uncle Tom stands up to Simon Legree

    “And now,” said Legree, “come here, you Tom. You see, I telled ye I didn’t buy ye jest for the common work; I mean to promote ye, and make a driver of ye; and to-night ye may jest as well begin to get yer hand in. Now, ye jest take this yer gal and flog her; ye’ve seen enough on’t to know how.”

    “I beg Mas’r’s pardon,” said Tom; “hopes Mas’r won’t set me at that. It’s what I an’t used to, – never did, – and can’t do, no way possible.”

    “‘Ye’ll larn a pretty smart chance of things ye never did know, before I’ve done with ye!” said Legree, taking up a cowhide, and striking Tom a heavy blow cross the cheek, and following up the infliction by a shower of blows.

    “There!” he said, as he stopped to rest; “now, will ye tell me ye can’t do it?”

    “Yes, Mas’r,” said Tom, putting up his hand, to wipe the blood, that trickled down his face. “I’m willin’ to work, night and day, and work while there’s life and breath in me; but this yer thing I can’t feel it right to do; – and, Mas’r, I never shall do it, – never!”

    Tom had a remarkably smooth, soft voice, and a habitually respectful manner, that had given Legree an idea that he would be cowardly, and easily subdued. When he spoke these last words, a thrill of amazement went through every one; the poor woman clasped her hands, and said, “O Lord!” and every one involuntarily looked at each other and drew in their breath, as if to prepare for the storm that was about to burst.

    Legree looked stupefied and confounded; but at last burst forth, “What! ye blasted black beast! tell me ye don’t think it right to do what I tell ye! What have any of you cussed cattle to do with thinking what’s right? I’ll put a stop to it! Why, what do ye think ye are? May be ye think yer a gentleman master, Tom, to be a telling your master what’s right, and what ain’t! So you pretend it’s wrong to flog the gal!”

    “I think so, Mas’r,” said Tom; “‘the poor crittur’s sick and feeble; ‘t would be downright cruel, and it’s what I never will do, nor begin to. Mas’r, if you mean to kill me, kill me; but, as to my raising my hand agin any one here, I never shall, – I’ll die first!”

    Tom spoke in a mild voice, but with a decision that could not be mistaken. Legree shook with anger…

    “Well, here’s a pious dog, at last, let down among us sinners! – a saint, a gentleman, and no less, to talk to us sinners about our sins! Powerful holy critter, he must be! Here, you rascal, you make believe to be so pious, – didn’t you never hear, out of yer Bible, ‘Servants, obey yer masters’? An’t I yer master? Didn’t I pay down twelve hundred dollars, cash, for all there is inside yer old cussed black shell? An’t yer mine, now, body and soul?” he said, giving Tom a violent kick with his heavy boot; “tell me!”

    In the very depth of physical suffering, bowed by brutal oppression, this question shot a gleam of joy and triumph through Tom’s soul. He suddenly stretched himself up, and, looking earnestly to heaven, while the tears and blood that flowed down his face mingled, he exclaimed: “No! no! no! my soul an’t yours, Mas’r! You haven’t bought it, ye can’t buy it! It’s been bought and paid for, by one that is able to keep it; no matter, no matter, you can’t harm me!”

    “I can’t!” said Legree, with a sneer; “we’ll see, we’ll see!”

    Uncle Tom’s Cabin Or, Life Among The Lowly
    By Harriet Beecher Stowe

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ ltr No updates for us today on Xinjiang slave labor or unaccounted for deaths?? Keep us posted. The Han majority and Xi Jinping think you are awesome for ignoring minority deaths. I wonder why Xinjiang and Tibet people hate Han people so much?? Again, we’re counting on your excuses for China.

      1. pgl

        She is trying to remind us of the reality of the struggles of blacks of the Old South but come on – she has not quite grasped how Hershel’s run for the Senate would set blacks back 175 years. And yea – she is also a little naive about what is happening in China.

    2. Barkley Rosser


      You are correct that it is unfair and inaccurate to identify Uncle Tom with black people who do not support the rights of black people. But has often happened a term gets used that is different from its original meaning. His name has been used for a long time to mean this, as long as I have been around and active in the civil rights movement like 60 years ago. Yes, undair, but this sort of thing goes on a llot.

      My question to you is, what would you propose as an alternatve to it? There certainly is a phenomenon of some black people not supporting the rights of other black people or black people in general, a phenomenon that we see in other groups as well. Do you have a suggestoin for an alternative term that means this? I certainly would hope that you are not somehow claiming that Herschel Walker does not deserve to be called by such a term, whatever it is, if it means that.

      So, what do you suggest as an alternative? I can think of one you most certainly will not like. One person who does not support the rights of other people of his ethnic group is, ahem, Xi Jinping. Maybe we should call Herschel Walker a “Xi Jinping” rather than an “Uncle Tom.”

      1. Barkley Rosser


        I must apologize. Of course “Xi Jinping” is not an appropriate term to use in place of “Uncle Tom.” The latter term refers to somebody supposedly selling out their onw kind to a dominating other group. Xi is in charge of a dominating group, even as he throws thousands of people from his group into prison for disssenting from the party line. So he is too dominating to fit this term.

        I am not sure of an obvious alternative, and do request that maybe you can come up with one, perhaps somebody from literature, or maybe a real historical individual. It is true that ‘Uncle Tom” is really not appropriate, although I doubt discussions here are going to halt the use of that term in this way.

  7. ltr

    November 12, 2022

    Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a written speech at the International Forum on Hybrid Rice Assistance and Global Food Security, which was held Saturday in Beijing.

    In his speech, Xi noted that food security is fundamental to human survival. Half a century ago, hybrid rice was first successfully developed and planted widely in China. Thanks to this technology, China has managed to feed nearly 20 percent of the world’s population with less than 9 percent of the world’s arable land, and become the largest food producer and the third largest food exporter in the world.

    From 1979, hybrid rice began to be introduced to the world, benefitting nearly 70 countries across five continents. This has been a remarkable contribution to their grain output increase and agricultural development, and offered a Chinese solution to food shortages in developing countries, Xi said.

    At present, global food security faces severe challenges and complexities, China will continue to work with all countries in a spirit of solidarity and a shared future to advance the Global Development Initiative, scale up cooperation on food security and poverty reduction, and make a greater contribution to the speedy implementation of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and to building a world free from hunger and poverty, said the Chinese president.

    1. ltr

      About rice growing and eating, which has characterized more than half the world’s population, Chinese agricultural specialists went to Madagascar several years ago to introduce hybrid rice to island farmers and adapt the rice to the local climate. The result has been the richest rice harvests in Africa and gratitude enough in Madagascar that this year the national currency was redesigned with an engraving of a Chinese hybrid rice field as background. Such can be the meaning of rice for a people.

  8. ltr

    November 12, 2022

    China’s Tianzhou-5 docks with space station in record time
    By Liu Wei and Sun Ye

    The Tianzhou-5 cargo spacecraft docked with the China Space Station only about two hours after its launch on Saturday, the fastest time such an operation has ever been completed.

    The spacecraft conducted a fast automated rendezvous and docking at the rear port of the core module of the space station at 12:10 p.m., according to the China Manned Space Agency.

    It was the first time a cargo ship has docked with the space station while taikonauts were aboard.

    The rapid docking technology indicates China’s ability to provide emergency supplies to the space station quickly if necessary.

    Li Guangri, designer of the cargo ship general system with China Academy of Space Technology (CAST), broke down the record-shattering rendezvous and docking process for CGTN.

    “It’s indeed the highlight of the day: Tianzhou-5’s rendezvous and docking process took less than two hours, not only shorter than Tianzhou-4’s six and a half hours but also shorter than the world record previously held by Russia’s Soyuz of around three hours. This means China’s cargo ship has set a world record,” Li said.

    He said the research team made improvements based on Tianzhou-4’s performance. “The guiding strategies have become better and there are now fewer parking points in close range: you could compare it to a bullet train, it’s faster than regular trains because it has higher speed and fewer stops.”

    Li said the Tianzhou series already has the capability to dock with all ports. The docking time can vary depending on the missions of the cargo ships.

    “For example, if special biology samples or fresh foods need to arrive quickly at the space station, then we can choose the two-hour rendezvous and docking procedure.”

    Tianzhou-5 also carried the heaviest cargo yet to the space station, weighing in at about 6.7 tonnes of supplies.

    1. ltr

      October 14, 2022

      China’s sci-tech progress not to be hammered by technology blockade
      By Zhang Yisheng and Zhao Bochao

      BEIJING — China’s home-grown super-large-diameter shield tunneling machine “Jinghua” bored through water-rich and high-density sand during a reconstruction project in Beijing, creating a new monthly tunneling world record of 542 meters.

      The technological feat wouldn’t have been imagined in the 1990s when China was unable to build the shield tunneling machine by itself. With the technology monopolized by foreign countries, China had to import such machines at very high prices.

      A decade ago, knowing China didn’t have the ability to produce the equipment, a foreign company set the price of a super-large-diameter shield tunneling machine as high as 700 million yuan (97.51 million U.S. dollars), Yang Hui, a Chinese designer of shield tunneling machine, said in an interview. “However, this prompted us to make our own,” he added.

      Because of that, China made up its mind to pool resources to advance its technology and has managed to produce the machine independently. Nowadays, home-grown shield machines have a domestic market share of over 90 percent, and a global market share of around 70 percent….

  9. Macroduck

    Control of the U.S. House and Senate are still not decided and remain a topic of interest, so allow me to clear a few things up.

    (Ahem…-adjusting spectacles-…)

    Joe Biden’s relatively low voter approval was often pointed out by smarty-pants pundits as a problem for Democratic candidates. “Here comes the red wave!!!” Not long ago here in comments, it was noted by someone – can’t quite remember who – that presidential approval is not a reliable guide to mid-term election results. Whaddaya know, presidential approval has turned out not to be a reliable guide to this year’s election results.

    One of the persistent stories about the latest gerrymander was that Republicans in most states where they had control mostly made seats which already leaned Republican into strongly Republican districts. Democrats, meanwhile, tried to gain seats by putting some strong seats at risk and spreading Democratic votes to swing districts. Over the past thirty years, Republicans have pretty routinely had a higher share of House seats than they had of the nationwide popular vote in House races. Someone in comments here – can’t remember who – pointed out that this election would be a test of the latest gerrymander, that the pattern could change. Apparently, it has changed.

    As Bruce note yesterday from the Cook Report:

    “…as of Thursday morning, November 10, Republicans have won 50,113,534 votes, or 52.3% of the vote, compared to 44,251,768, or 46.2% of the vote. Republicans lead by 6.1%…”

    That margin may have closed with recent counts, but relative to what is currently expected to be the seat count in the House, that looks like a decided change from the prior gerrymander. In recent elections, Democrats needed a similar margin, 6% to 7%, to break even in House seats. Further:

    “The mismatch between overall votes cast for Republicans and the actual result reflects the polarized nature of congressional maps. It also reflects the fact that Republican losses against many Democratic incumbents were very narrow.”

    “Polarized” misses the point. The second sentence gets the point, though only obliquely. Democrats made a bet that they could add House seats by having slim margins in more districts. Republicans went for safe margins in fewer districts. The Democtrats’ bet paid off. (If Hochul had RUN A DECENT GROUND GAME, it might have paid off even more, but I digress.)

    Lastly, and as pointed out by someone in comments here – can’t remember who – Biden had weak coattails in 2020. Democrats had only a slight House margin in 2021-2022 as a result, so that Republicans needed only a few seats to take the House majority in this year’s election. However, weak coattails also meant fewer weak House seats for Democrats. The notion that the president’s party loses big in mid-term elections relies to a large extent on coattails. Apparently, professional chatterboxes are unaware of this simple, obvious fact.

    All of which leads to a simple observation: political pundits, with very few exceptions, know very little about the math of elections. Elections run on math, so our political pundits, with very few exceptions, are useless as a kickstand on a conestoga wagon.

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ Macroduck
      Great rundown.

      Update on Hobbs vs Lake. Maybe I shouldn’t get my hopes up like I did with Boebert’s absent downfall, but feeling pretty good about Hobbs. Was really kinda pulling for her.

      I’m actually one of the very few who applauded Hobbs not doing a debate (I thought Fetterman should have at least entertained this idea as well). I think she made the right choice not participating in a freakshow circus event, which is what Lake would have transformed it into.

      A debate is not a debate if one of the parties to the debate wants to pander to illiterates. I’m pro-debate but not in that particular context.

    2. baffling

      was it covid that made the snide comment repeatedly to wait for the voters in the next election. well, that election resulted in the democrats keeping the senate and STILL in contention for the house. exactly what were you expecting the voters to do here covid? care to take back your comments, or will you simply double down like a trumpian fool?

      1. Moses Herzog

        I’m going to make one of those confessions of mine, which would better be kept to myself, for admitting an inability to foresee things that may have been foreseeable. But really I don’t view that as foreseeable. I am rather shocked the American electorate behaved/voted as wisely as they did (the AGs who trashed the credibility of American elections being tossed on their keister alone was about enough shock to put me into a coma). Boebert’s victory was a disappointment, as a few others were, but generally I was shocked at how well people used their judgement this time. Frankly, I have pretty much written off American voters as mostly functionally illiterate/ unknowingly masochistic fools. And I’m not so certain I don’t still have that right. Did they walk a$$-backwards into making the right decisions?? When 1 in 5 Black men voted for donald trump, 1 in 10 Black women voted for donald trump, 31% of college educated Hispanics voted for donald trump, and 44% of women in general vote for donald trump, I really have no gauge on it. Except to say, we have a large segment of dumb Americans.

        blablabla blablabla……..

        Which is to say……. I would have taken CoRev’s side of the bet on that one, even if for different reasons than CoRev’s.

      2. CoRev

        Baffled, I actually said the voters would determine the value of the Biden policies. They spoke and Dems lost the House, and barely maintained the Senate, although Dems losing it was very problematic with this cycle. In several states they did disavow Democrat performance. NY and Fl come to mind. At this writing it appears the Republicans will gain ~15 House seats and lose 1 Senate seat.

        Perhaps the biggest loser may be Trump, Biden’s energy and economic policies, and Polls and pundits.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          I just checked. They probably do have it, but not quite yet. Current call has GOP with 217 seats. They need one more to actually cinch it. Both of you are jumping the gun, but given that Moses seems to be joining Anonymous in competing with CoRev for stupidity here, this may not be too surprising.

          1. Barkley Tosser

            As of now at 2;52 AM, Nov. 17, GOP has now 218 sears, so control of the House,wirh something like 8 give or take a couple of seats still not called. I have heard GOP foils claiming somewhere between 2 to 5 of the remainder. We shall see.

        2. Noneconomist

          Come on. CoRev, you were hot for a red wave. Admit it. You couldn’t wait for Election Day and the disaster awaiting Democrats. No song and dance on your part will gloss over that.
          Couple of interesting tidbits. Here in socialist California with a crumbling economy and everybody looking to get out,Gov. Gavin Newsom is currently getting 59% of the vote. Not a surprise .
          What is interesting, however, is the vote for Prop.1, which adds abortion/contraceptive rights to the state constitution. It’s passing with 66+% and is exceeding Newsom’s vote by by more than 500,000 votes. Message there somewhere.
          And next door in Nevada, which was hit very hard by the pandemic, Democrat Sisolak will lose the governor’s race by about 1.3% , but the legislature will continue to have Democratic majorities, with a super majority likely in the Assembly. Laxalt, of course, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, which can happen when more than a few family members endorse your opponent.
          Likely, many Republicans there suffered when voters remembered their promises from the primary where every candidate was filmed either shooting a gun or handling a gun and promising to be more pro life than the Pope.
          Message there somewhere too.

        3. pgl

          The big Red Wave failed big time but leave to the dumbest barking dog to declare it a major victory for Team Trump. Either you are dumber than a rock and a dishonest POS.

        4. Baffling

          Covid, you were promoting a red wave. It never happened. Republican performance this midterm was abysmal. This midterm election was very much a win for biden.

          Voters spoke. And they told maga hatters to kiss their a$$.

          1. pgl

            Imagine CoRev covering a game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Vanderbilt Commodores where the odds makers predicted Georgia would win 56 to 7. But wait – Vandy scores 21 to the Dogs 24. I guess CoRev would declare the best game the Dogs ever played. He is indeed that stupid.

          2. Noneconomist

            Also no comment from CR on four important swing states where Democrats were elected or re-elected governor. Shapiro is +14 in Pennsylvania, Whitmer +11 in Michigan, Evers +3.4 in Wisconsin and Hobbs +.80 in Arizona.
            That’s 57 potential 2024 electoral votes, votes Trump lost in 2020. Looks like voters in those states weren’t buying Trump and what Trump candidates in their states were selling.
            RonJohn +1 survived somehow in the Senate but seriously trails the margins for Kelly (+6) and Fetterman, (+5).
            Spin those results , CR. Please.

        5. Macroduck

          CoVid, funny way you have with language. “Funny” being a euphemism for “dishonest”. Lost the House, won the Senate. That’s what happened.

          Lost very few seats in the House when mid-term losses often run high for the president’s party. That’s what happened.

          May pick up a seat in the Senate. That’s what we’ll find out in December.

          If you want to make an honest argument about public attitudes toward Biden’s policies using election outcomes as your metric, you need to make an honest assessment of election outcomes. You being you, you never will make an honest assessment, but that would be the standard for an honest argument.

          1. CoRev

            MD, claims: “Lost very few seats in the House when mid-term losses often run high for the president’s party. ” Just one more republican win and the HOUSE IS REPUBLICAN. That’s still a loss of the House!

            “May pick up a seat in the Senate. ” Yup, NAY pick up a Senate seat.

            This is what i actually said re seats: ” At this writing it appears the Republicans will gain ~15 House seats and lose 1 Senate seat.” CNN says Repubs picked up 12 seats so far with 10 still to be determined, many with leads by Repubs.

            What everyone wants to ignore is the changes in voter demographics.

          2. Noneconomist

            Let’s look at those important swing states again, CR. Or would you prefer to continue ignoring them?
            Five that will determine the next President—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia—all rejected Trump backed candidates for governor.
            Shapiro and Whitmer spanked Trump picks by double digits. Evers increased his victory margin over a Trumper who guaranteed Republicans would never lose again in the state. Hobbs got a slight majority over Lake who happily alienated McCain Republicans,
            Arch enemy Brian Kemp shellacked Trump’s candidate in the primary. BTW, Trump is facing significant legal trouble in Georgia, too.
            All of which does not bode well for candidate Trump in 2024.
            That reality is hard to ignore.

          3. Noneconomist

            Given your infatuation with “policies”, , wouldn’t that mean they rejected his “policies” too?

          4. CoRev

            Nonecon, asks: ” wouldn’t that mean they rejected his “policies” too?” Only if this had an election concerning HIS policies, but it was an election over Biden’s and abortion. If the recession occurs and if Biden does’;t change policy re: energy, then the next election will focus on economic issues.

            But, that’s till 2 years away.

          5. Noneconomist

            OK, so when Trump lost the 2020 election, THAT was rejection of his “policies.” But the recent election—especially in the all important swing states where Trump’s chosen candidates were battered—was a rejection of Trump and also of his “policies” which had already been rejected in 2020.
            Got it.

          6. CoRev

            Nonecon, if you believe the 2020 election had to do with Trump’s policies, especially economic policies, then you truly are deluded. 2020 was perturbed by Covid and the drastic change in election procedures. 2022 was still perturbed by those changed procedures.

            If you want to talk policies, then list those successful Biden policies which carried this election.

          7. Noneconomist

            ‘Perturbed election procedures” ? Now, CR, you’ve gone from 2022 was a referendum on Biden’s policies to 2022 being “perturbed” by election “procedures” The flames and smoke coming from your pants should not be ignored.
            Anti Trump governors were elected in those four important swing states because of “perturbed” procedures.?
            Oh yeah. I’m deluded.

          8. CoRev

            Bwa, ha, ha the reaction to a true fact is more telling than their claim of understanding. The offending part of the comment: “the drastic change in election procedures. ” This is to what they are in denial:
            “…All told, 37 states modified their absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the general election. These modifications can be divided into five broad categories. Here’s a recap of all of the changes made throughout 2020….”

            Some of you math wizard might calculate for us the percentage of states that 37 states changing procedures represents. I will repeat MD’s claim: “funny way you have with language. “Funny” being a euphemism for “dishonest”.”

            Why would anyone not realize the truth of there being a drastic change in the past, 2020 election PROCEDURES and that is has largely carried forward to 2022?

            Is truth so hard to understand? Why does that TRUTH garner such reaction? Tsk, tsk!

          9. CoRev

            Menzie, why are you so blatantly ignorant of election change reality? “Disinformation regarding election irregularities without documentation will be grounds for banning.”

            Moreover, why are you so sensitive to the truth of changed election procedures? I never claimed they were irregularities, but they are clearly CHANGED PROCEDURES due to Covid.

            Please take a refresher course or read a recent book on US Political History.

          10. Baffling

            Covid, i for one see no problem with adjusting how we vote if it increases voter participation. A democracy thrives when voters vote. It does not thrive if we reduce voter participation. I am against any action that reduces voter participation.

          11. Noneconomist

            CR, each STATE establishes its own election procedures. What rules are in place in Texas do not affect votes in California, or Nevada, or Pennsylvania. Georgia’s election laws and procedures have no effect in Wisconsin, Montana, or Oregon.
            In fact, you did point out that nationally more Republicans cast votes than Democrats. Whatever changes were made did not, as a general rule, apply to all 50 states and would seem to have benefitted Republicans. (Republicans in California vote heavily by mail as do Democrats. No surprise. Oregon andUtah have been largely mail vote states for over a decade. )
            In my county, the mail vote includes about 90% of voters. Newsom is currently at 54% in the county —59% statewide—indicating Republicans have learned to cope quite well with whatever “procedures” have changed.
            Other than changes by state or county officials, what “perturbations” are you talking about.? You tried unsuccessfully to back off the election being a Biden referendum and instead substituted abortion and election “perturbations”. If you’re not suggesting fraud ala Karrie Lake—-exactly what are you saying?
            You’ve already torched one pair of pants. Time for a second?

          12. CoRev

            I love the sensitivity dems/liberals have re: mentioning the election procedures changes. MD got all concerned over the meaning of “perturbed”, while Baffled defined one perturbation, increased votes, quite well. Menzie is clueless re: the procedural changes and was threatened by its mention.

            What circus of idiotic clowns!

    1. Moses Herzog

      Speaking of news, I was sad to hear about this:

      It looks like Woodruff will continue on to December 30. Sad to see her tapering off here. But I think it’s good she’s quitting when she is still at the top of her game, kinda Jim Brown style. They’re gonna miss her, because there’s no one there that can fill her shoes. Lisa Desjardins is a very capable politics reporter. So Desjardins can fill in for Judy in that specific role of political reporter, but as far as wearing all the hats Judy could, there’s just no matching her. I’ll probably switch over to just “DW” news, and then maybe watch the last 20 minutes of NewsHour for the human interest stories. It’s just not gonna be NewsHour without Woodruff. It’s kinda like when your family pet dies. You really don’t want to buy a pet right after that, you need some gap time or some spacing. I’m not comparing her to an animal (‘cuz I know one of you losers with too much time on your hands will say that) I am saying people get close to their family pets, so from a sentimental standpoint, I can’t watch anyone else fill in for her on that same program.

    2. Moses Herzog

      Five Thirty Eight’s “Unresolved Races Live Blog”

      Good way to keep up on the last loose ends of the midterms and not sit through bad TV anchor jokes, TV anchors talking about how they accidentally touched a common person at Starbucks and how grotesque it was when they said “good morning”, the weathergirl acting like she’s still in junior high because a honeybee landed on her live cam, and sitting through 45 minutes of television advertisements to get 30 seconds of political race data.

  10. ltr

    Says —, defender of the second-ranked…

    [ Falseness in defense of racial prejudice. Imagine being so consumed by prejudice. ]

    “At least 150 people have died over…”

    [ Falseness in defense of racial prejudice. Imagine being so consumed by prejudice. ]

    1. baffling

      ltr has embraced the trump world of alternative facts. simply deny the facts when all else fails. what a mature response by ltr.

  11. ltr

    October 13, 2022

    Rural Tibet sees sizable income growth over past decade
    By Daqiong and Palden Nyima

    Lhasa — The per capita disposable income of rural residents of the Tibet autonomous region has continued to see double-digit growth over the past decade, this growth rate has been ranking the highest growth in the country for seven consecutive years, regional authorities said at a news conference in the regional capital Lhasa recently.

    In 2021, the region’s per capita disposable income of rural residents exceeded 16,900 yuan ($2,300), which is 2.97 times that of 5,698 yuan in 2012, according to a press conference held recently by the regional department of agriculture and rural affairs.

    Since the 18th CPC National Congress in 2012, rural residents in Tibet have been witnessing rapid income growth and significant living standard improvements. In particular, the region’s comprehensive production capacity of agricultural and animal husbandry is staged in a high level, and the development vitality of agricultural and pastoral areas has been significantly enhanced, Du Jie, head of the department said at the news conference.

    Since 2012, the region has poured nearly 16.82 billion yuan on the infrastructure construction of various characterized industries, ten plateau-characterized agricultural, and animal husbandry products bases have been established, including highland barley, yaks, and Tibetan sheep, Du said.

    As of June this year, the region had more than 160 leading enterprises of agricultural and animal husbandry industrialization, more than 12,700 rural cooperatives, with increases of 63 percent and 12 times the figures in 2012, he said.

    Over the past decade, the regional agricultural and animal husbandry industries have seen high-quality development, nearly 238,000 poverty stricken rural residents were lifted out of poverty thanks to the contribution of these industries, he added.

    1. ltr

      October 10, 2022

      Output of Tibet’s culture industry grows fourfold over decade

      LHASA — The total output of the culture industry in southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region grew more than fourfold to 6.9 billion yuan (about 971.9 million U.S. dollars) over the past decade, local authorities said.

      The output registered an annual growth rate of over 15 percent on average, Gan Liquan, deputy director of the regional department of culture, told a press conference on Sunday.

      Over the past decade, more than 400 million yuan, earmarked by both the central and regional governments, was spent on the protection of intangible cultural heritage, Gan added.

      Tibet now has three items (Gesar, Tibetan opera, and Lum medicinal bathing of Sowa Rigpa) included on the UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage List. There are 106 items on the national intangible cultural heritage list with 96 state-level representative bearers and 460 items on the regional list with 522 regional-level representative bearers.

      The region has named eight counties, townships, and villages with intangible cultural heritage characteristics, and 19 intangible cultural heritage tourist attractions.

      A total of 121 intangible cultural heritage workshops have been established in the region, creating jobs for 3,053 people from 2,271 households and increasing monthly incomes by more than 3,200 yuan on average, Gan said.

      1. Macroduck

        Potemkin cultural villages. It is beyond vile that ltr plasters comments with propaganda about Tibet, while lecturi g the rest ofus about racism. China invaded in 1950 and annexed Tibet n 1951. The Dalai Lama had to flee Tibet in 1957 to escape Chinese detention.

        “These 50 years have brought untold suffering and destruction to the land and people of Tibet. Today, the religion, culture, language and identity … are nearing extinction; in short, the Tibetan people are regarded like criminals deserving to be put to death … However, the fact that the Tibet issue is alive and the international community is taking growing interest in it is indeed an achievement. I have no doubt that the justice of Tibet’s cause will prevail, if we continue to tread the path of truth and nonviolence.”

        – The 14th Dalai Lama, 2009.

        “Any relationship between Tibet and China will have to be based on the principle of equality, respect, trust and mutual benefit. It will also have to be based on the principle which the wise rulers of Tibet and of China laid down in a treaty as early as 823 A.D., carved on the pillar which still stands today in front of the Jo-khang, Tibet’s holiest shrine, in Lhasa, that “Tibetans will live happily in the great land of Tibet, and the Chinese will live happily in the great land of China”.

        – The 14th Dalai Lama, 1989, Nobel Prize Acceptance Speech

  12. ltr

    November 12, 2022

    China successfully launches Tianzhou-5 cargo spacecraft for space station supplies

    China on Saturday successfully launched cargo spacecraft Tianzhou-5 to deliver supplies for its space station, the construction of which is expected to be completed this year.

    The Long March-7 Y6 rocket, carrying Tianzhou-5, blasted off from Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in the southern island province of Hainan at 10:03 a.m.

    The Tianzhou-5 cargo spacecraft detached from the rocket in about 10 minutes and entered its pre-set orbit. The center declared the launch successful after the solar panels unfolded and started operation.

    The cargo spacecraft conducted rendezvous and docking with the space station at 12:10 p.m., about two hours after its launch. It’s the fastest time such an operation has ever been completed.

    “I would say that the launch went smoothly … in fact very smoothly,” said Mao Wanbiao, deputy director at Xichang Satellite Launch Center, which manages the Wenchang launch site. “All systems, including measurement and control, communication, meteorology, and logistics, all worked well.”

    “Both the process and the result were a complete success,” Mao added….

    1. ltr

      November 12, 2022

      China’s Tianzhou-5 docks with space station in record time
      By Liu Wei and Sun Ye

      The Tianzhou-5 cargo spacecraft docked with the China Space Station only about two hours after its launch on Saturday, the fastest time such an operation has ever been completed.

      The spacecraft conducted a fast automated rendezvous and docking at the rear port of the core module of the space station at 12:10 p.m., according to the China Manned Space Agency.

      It was the first time a cargo ship has docked with the space station while taikonauts were aboard.

      The rapid docking technology indicates China’s ability to provide emergency supplies to the space station quickly if necessary.

      Li Guangri, designer of the cargo ship general system with China Academy of Space Technology (CAST), broke down the record-shattering rendezvous and docking process for CGTN.

      “It’s indeed the highlight of the day: Tianzhou-5’s rendezvous and docking process took less than two hours, not only shorter than Tianzhou-4’s six and a half hours but also shorter than the world record previously held by Russia’s Soyuz of around three hours. This means China’s cargo ship has set a world record,” Li said….

    2. Moses Herzog

      I’m looking forward to China sending men out to the Moon and Mars. The funny thing about manned spaced missions?? When there’s an F— up, and something happens with people who copy technology from other nations but do very little to boost problem solving skills that must be done improvised in space exploration?? Space travel is not an exam based on rote style learning testing a person’s memorization ability. I have to confess there’s a sadistic part of me that says it will be fun to watch, and if it was NOT worth the lives lost, it would almost be worth it, to show the Chinese populace their communist party’s dysfunction in the truest terms. It’s not like murdering 200 Uyghurs in a Xinjiang death camp. When those Astronauts’ bodies/faces don’t come back to Earth, there’s no hiding it.

  13. Macroduck

    CNN just called the Nevada Senate race for Cortez Masto. That’s Democrats holding control of the Senate. If Warnock wins the Georgia run-off, that’s maybe enough to limit Manchin’s one-man filibuster. The way the math works, I think, Harris could break a 49/49 tie if both Dinos abstain.

  14. Moses Herzog

    All this recruiting propaganda during NFL games reminds me of a marching cadence I used to do when I was in high school marching band:

    “I don’t know but I been told [4 beat count silence] You join the army you might get killed [4 beats silence ] You might get killed, you might get killed, you might [1 beat silence] BE KILLED!!!

    I don’t even get paid for these ideas.

  15. JohnH

    Looks like Republicans will need both Manchin and Sinema’s votes now.

    And it looks like Biden will have to start triangulating with Republicans in the House, like Bill Clinton did.

    But, yeah, Democrats “won” the Senate, on paper at least. Somehow memories of 2009-10 linger…you remember…when Democrats controlled the House and had a veto-proof majority in the Senate, and still couldn’t get anything done!

    It’s best to set your expectations low, very low…although I expect Big Money will find a way to get its agenda passed, as it rarely fails to do.

    1. pgl

      I hear that you have signed onto being a political advisor for Hershel Walker. That actually makes me happy as your incompetence will help Warnock gets a full 6 year term!

  16. Macroduck

    Looks like Iran’s domestic troubles are encouraging a bit of bumptiousness among the neighbors:

    Iran, meanwhile, has recently tilted toward Armenia in the Armenia/Azerbajian conflict.

    You know the routine – military exercises near the border, editorials condemning this and that, stern warnings by politicians and diplomats, name-calling, hair-pulling… Not that a war would necessarily help Iran’s domestic situation, but “bring down the mullahs” talk from Baku could add to domestic fragmentation. Tehran can’t sit idle in response.

    Not a pretty picture. Love to see where Moscow comes down on this one.

    1. Macroduck

      As background, there are lots of ethnic Azerbajianis (Azeris?) in parts of Iran, whose safety and liberty need protection by Baku.

      But wait, Azerbajianis are just a subset of Iranians, so eed no special protection from by one subset of Iran by another subset of Iran.

      This should be easy to sort out.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        There are way more Azeris in Iran than in Azerbaijan. T?hey are about 30% of the population, dominating the northern part of the country.

        1. Ivan

          Yes and Iran has send many of its drones and missiles to Russia. The current uprising could turn into a civil war if Iran think it can support Armenia against Azerbaijan. I don’t even see what Iran hope to gain by sticking its head into this hornets nest.

  17. Ivan

    China is trying to fix its real estate sector

    Will it work?

    The underlying problem is the culture of excessive propensity to save rather than spend. The excessive saving gets funneled into whatever the savers think is both safe and (secondarily) profitable. However, when an asset class has a huge influx of money it becomes unstable (lose its “safe” characteristics). Then greed takes over and people focus on the “profitable” aspect (destabilizing the safeness).

  18. pgl

    Good grief:

    The Anti-Defamation League on Sunday sharply criticized comedian Dave Chappelle’s hosting gig on “Saturday Night Live.” The organization accused Chappelle, “SNL” and NBC of “normalizing and popularizing antisemitism,” though the ADL didn’t specifically mention anything the Black comedian said on the snow.

    I watched SNL. Chappelle was rough on Kayne as he should. The ADL has every right to go after Kayne. And yes Kyrie needed to apologize. But damn it – the ADL is now dividing those who should be united. Guys – take a chill pill.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Lorne David Lipowitz (what a nice Irish name) is now providing a platform to “anti-Semites”. Who knew??

  19. pgl

    It looks like Kari Lake will not be the next governor of Arizona (YEA). I wonder how many votes she lost due to this bone head statement?

    Kari Lake, the Republican nominee for governor of Arizona, made some interesting comments about Super Bowl LVII this month. If Lake is nominated later this year, she’d like to implement a new policy regarding immigration. She’d like to confront migrants with United States military troops. Lake claims she’s willing to shut down Super Bowl LVII if the NFL doesn’t agree with her policies. Super Bowl LVII is currently scheduled to take place at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. “You want to tell me, that a bunch of football teams, owned by billionaires, are okay with fentanyl pouring across our border at a record level, killing our young people? The No. 1 killer is fentanyl. 18-45. It’s killing a generation of people. If the NFL is okay with that, then they need to do some soul-searching,” Lake said. “I don’t think the NFL is that stupid, I really don’t. But, I’m not going to be taking marching orders from the NFL. I’m taking marching orders from the people of Arizona who are tired of their children getting their hands on the most deadly drug this country has ever seen.”

    OK Lake is a racist POS. What’s new? But canceling the Super Bowl? Football fans in Arizona do not take kindly to that idea.

  20. Macroduck

    A divided Congress is the common state of affairs in the U.S. for the past half century. Odds are, here we go again.

    Budgets have to pass. Debt ceilings have to be lifted if default is to be avoided. Anybody who thinks “technical default” is not the same as default is playing with somebody else’s money. That’s all the legislation we can reasonably expect to pass, and we have to rely on Kevin McCarthy to thread the needle on the debt ceiling – not the happiest thought.

    Confirming appointments is up to the Senate, so that can continue. Otherwise, all politics, all the time, until January 20, 2025. How elevating.

    1. Ivan

      As far as I remember the nutcases eventually drove Paul Ryan to pass budgets with the help of Democrats. The outcomes of GOP majority depending on right wing nutcases, was more centrist actual legislation and a bunch of political battle flag bills that didn’t go anywhere (but scared the electorate). Using the US economy as hostage to get your extremist agenda through has never worked well in the long run – voters just don’t like that.

    2. w

      This time it is not just a Democrat-Republican divide.
      It is a Democrat-Republican-Republican divide. It’s sort of a mirror image of the days when the Democratic party was divided over George Wallace.

    3. Barkley Rosser


      Dems really need to either get the debt ceiling raised during the lame duck session, or, better yet, just plain eliminated. However, word is that Manchin and maybe Sinema too will block doing it by resolution, claiming it needs to be “bipartisan” and so some GOP votes. But that is unlikely. With how extremist so many of the GOP House members are, this is likely to be the most dangerous economic matter facing the nation next year, with a default highly likely. Frankly, I think some of the GOPs want a default so we will have a bad recession they can run against in 2024.

    1. pgl

      “While there was a shortage of containers at the height of the Covid pandemic, the global economy is now facing the opposite problem: too many containers.”

      The tendency for the shipping sector to overinvest in new ships when demand temporarily peaks has been an issue for generations. I guess the titans of this sector never learn.

      1. baffling

        the fed is now walking back expectations of large rate hikes. and maybe even rate hikes in general. I think the last hike should have been 0.5%. However if the next hike is 0.25% or less, the fed is acting rational. anything higher, and expect a significant recession. those are the tea leaves I am reading.

  21. pgl

    Hershel Walker is Bruce Hall’s “boy”:

    “Now let me tell you this here: If we was ready for the green agenda, I’d raise my hand right now,” he said. “But we’re not ready right now! So don’t let them fool you like this is a new agenda, this is not a new agenda! We’re not prepared, we’re not ready right now! What we need to do is keep having these gas-guzzling cars, because we got the good emissions under those cars. We’re doing the best thing that we can!”

    I used to think Brucie was the dumbest clown ever but old Hershel has him beat. MAGA!

    1. baffling

      I don’t think Herschel is even smart enough to be considered an ideologue. he has no idea what he is talking about. he is the equivalent of the back bencher tea party players from a few years ago. simply the party of no, without rhyme or reason.

    1. pgl

      A student off camera asks, “So White is better than all?” The teacher replies, “Let me finish. I think everybody thinks that. They’re just not honest about it.” After some other discussion in the video, a student asks, “You said you are a racist, right?” “I did, yeah, I’m trying to be honest,” the teacher replies.

      I can only imagine the reaction to this from Senator Ted Cruz who would likely want to promote this racist teacher and sanction the students who dared to stand up for minorities. MAGA!

  22. pgl

    Interesting story on how Trump is using his “boy” Hershel to rip off the racists who are dumb enough to send Trump money for Walker’s runoff campaign:

    Let’s say some KKK member sent $100 to Trump to help Walker out. It seems the Walker campaign would get $10 and Trump would pocket the other $90.

    Yea – Walker’s racist supporters are even dumber than they “boy”.

  23. Ivan

    YES – Trump is running. That is about the best thing that could happen for Democrats. Either the GOP has a civil war or they get a loser as their 2024 candidate.

      1. Moses herzog

        Did you notice, Orange Abomination is not getting the same coverage he got on his first run?? He’s getting the treatment he should have got the first time he ran~~refusal just to give him FREE publicity i.e. free campaign adverts.

        I can’t believe I didn’t make any half-drunk blog comments last night, that is amazing, I am kinda laughing at myself right now. Either that or Menzie is being super nice to me again by filtering me (in the kindest kind of way). Oh well. I’m taking credit for not doing that either way, hahahaha!!!

        1. Moses Herzog

          @ Menzie
          Menzie, I’m pretty certain your readers will view me as “screwball” for saying this, But I love you brother. I’d be very happy if you put this very here comment up. Your friend always, Moses. (Or “whoever” from middle America)

        2. pgl

          I decided not to listen to the Orange Abomination. Hopefully if we all ignore his babbling – he will eventually get the message and go away.

    1. baffling

      trump has survived because moderate republicans detested him personally, but believed he offered the best path to winning. but after three cycles, many of those folks see that is no longer the case. he will continue to lose those voters, but it is hard for them to admit they were wrong. he may have enough to control the party, but not enough to win general elections. that was apparent by the number of candidates trump vouched for who lost in competitive races. the Republican Party has got a big problem going forward, if they cannot put trump out to pasture.

      what surprised me was the number of fools who believed in him during his first election. there were far more people willing to strike a deal with the devil than I had imagined. at least in the Republican Party, what it means is there are far more people with flawed ethics and morality than I realized. then again, when you see how many small business owners who cheat on their taxes, it should awaken you to the moral fluidness of a number of citizens of a particular party…

  24. pgl


    Is this how it goes at Faux News? Laura Ingraham mocks Fetterman for his size (he’s tall) his hair (he’s bald) his wardrobe and of course going after the wife?

    Like Trump is handsome, young, good looking, and quite the athlete. Oh wait. And can you imagine the right wing uproar if we went after Melanie?

    Hey Laura – why not go back to sports reporting telling Lebron to shut up and dribble. Or maybe you can attack Paul Pelosi while you are at it.

  25. pgl

    Walker has suggested Warnock is a bad father. Is this why?

    “I want to set the record straight: My children live with me. I am present with my children in every way that a father should be, from breakfast in the morning to bedtime prayers at night. I can’t continue to let him lie about my family.” – Warnock

    Of course in Hershel’s mind actually taking care of one’s kids is being a bad father. A good father would deny his knows his kids, would go out and have sex with all sorts of women, pay for their abortions, but never, never pay to take care of the kids. MAGA!

  26. pgl

    Did Trump say something last night? I picked up a copy of the New York Post to find out:

    the Post not only buried its piece on the announcement on Page 26 come Wednesday morning — but it also relegated the news item to a simple banner running along the bottom of the front page that read, “Florida man makes announcement.”

    1. CoRev

      As I said Trump was a big/biggest loser of the mid-terms.

      BTW, at this writing Republican have won the House, with MSNBC predicting a 221 count for them.

      1. pgl

        Do you play FanDuel? I hope not as you do not get how all of this works. If your favorite football was supposed to win by 24 points, a 17-14 win means you lose.

        BTW – your House Republicans are squabbling over making a loser like McCarthy the next Speaker whereas Pelosi will still be loved by everyone on the Democratic side. Of course she is a leader whereas your boy is a cowardly wimp.

      2. pgl

        I suspect those “problem solvers” moderate House Republicans will be so appalled at Jim Jordan wasting everyone’s time with one stupid investigation after another that some may switch to Independents.

        Speaker Hakeem Jeffries by the end of 2023. Yea I bet that will send CoRev the mad barking dog over the edge!

      3. Noneconomist

        A massive crushing of the opposition.A Red Wave, just like you predicted. Just a bit less than the 30-60 seat loss being predicted by some pundits.
        BTW, no comments on those five—now obviously anti-Trump— swing states?

      4. Baffling

        Just curious, is this what you expected when you emphatically pointed out to let the voters voice their opinion? Is this really what you call winning in the midterm?

        1. CoRev

          Yes! Winning the House was always what i expected. Only the pundits and pollsters predicted a Red Wave. That’s why I included them in the loser class along with Dems, of course.

          1. Baffling

            That was a pretty low bar. You got the house simply through republican gerrymandering. But that was not what you have been implying covid. You have been saying this would be a repudiation of biden policies. Only a fool would think this election produced such a result. So you are either a fool, or are now walking back your assertions over the past couple of months. Heck, there is a chance you cannot even elect your chosen speaker. This was the poorest showing in many midterm elections for republicans.

          2. CoRev

            Nonecon and baffled, I’ve challenged you to find the comment where I predicted a Red Wave.

            If you actually believe this is NOT a repudiation of yours/Biden’s policies, then you are denser than even I thought. You lost the House. maintaining the Senate was a nail biter.

            The next Presidential election is going to be more than interesting. Still 2 years to wait.

          3. Baffling

            It was certainly not a repudiation of biden’s policies. If that were the case republicans would have gotten the senate, rather than possibly even lose a seat. Democratic governors also did very well in middle ground states. AND republicans may be stuck with trump for another election cycle. Covid, the rest of the country has simply moved on from your spoiled old man positions. They were voted down in this election.

          4. CoRev

            Baffled while ignoring my request to show where I claimed there to be a Red Wave, the subject at hand, then sifts attentions to: “the rest of the country has simply moved on from your spoiled old man positions. They were voted down in this election.”

            Really, for a change more Republicans voted than Democrats. I do admit to being old and a man, but that has zero relevance to the comments’ subject. But, yes, Biden’s economic policies resulted in the elevated Republican vote count.

            I can hardly wait for your next desperate and unrelated comment.

          5. Noneconomist

            Hey CoRev. speaking of vote totals, what was the difference in votes for governor in the important swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona?
            I’ ll help you out.
            Democrats: 8,567, 931
            Republicans: 7,210,773
            Or +54.4% to 45.6%
            Good to see you acknowledge the importance of popular votes. As you know, Democrats have won more popular votes in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections.

          6. Noneconomist

            OK, as you burn through a second pair of pants, CR, which states we’re most “perturbed” by changes in election procedures? You mentioned 37 states, so you must have some idea of the most obvious “perturbations “ in particular states and how those changes affected outcomes.
            Otherwise, it was simply a mid term election with large turnouts in numerous states.
            After all, you did point out the large Republican (combined) vote, indicating Republicans navigated those “perturbations “ quite well. That being the case, what were the problems? Are you Kari Lakeing and claiming fraud or are you just doing your usual song and dance after backing away from your oft stated claims of the election being a referendum on Biden’s “policies”?
            In particular, what “perturbations “ led to Swing state voters (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona) casting 1,337,158 more votes for Democrats?
            Put down the cane, take off the top hat, and remove your dancing shoes. You can do this.

          7. Baffling

            It is strange that any patriot would have an issue with voting changes that increase voter turnout. Voting is central to a democracy. We should be ashamed of any policy that takes away somebody’s constitutional right to vote. That is third world behavior.

          8. CoRev

            Nonecon, Baffled, Menzie , et al.
            transitive verb

            To disturb or confuse; make uneasy or anxious.
            To cause (a system) to become altered or imbalanced from a normal state.
            To cause perturbation in (the orbit of a celestial body, for example) by gravitational interaction.”

            Most of the comments involve this comment from me:
            ” 2020 was perturbed by Covid and the drastic change in election procedures. 2022 was still perturbed by those changed procedures.”

            None of you have contradicted that statement. How could you with 37 states changing their election procedures in 2020?

            You guys are hilariously ignorant.

          9. Baffling

            Its not a perturbation, its an evolution. Nobody wants to return to a status that restricted voting. People want systems that encourage and support voting.

          10. CoRev

            Baffled believes the sudden change in 202 was an :
            “ĕv″ə-loo͞′shən, ē″və-

            A gradual process in which something changes into a different and usually more complex or better form….”

            2020’s election changes were neither gradual nor did they simplify the voting process. Proof in the latter is in the delay in counting that has ensued.

          11. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: Are you implying that whatever changes in election procedures resulted in voting irregularities that changed electoral results substantively (i.e., indviduals illegitimately won)? If so, I would welcome documentation to that effect from government agencies charged with assessing election integrity.

          12. CoRev

            Menzie, my statements have been clear. Your interpretations of their meaning have also been PROJECTIONS of your own election sensitivity.


  27. Baffling

    Would not surprise me if the republican civil war results in a speaker supported by democrats. Wouldn’t that be ironic.

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