Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April (May comes on June 24th).
First the scary:
Then the scarier:
The 3 month moving average for production and income component of the CFNAI is now at 2016 levels. Of course 2016 did not coincide with a recession. But the term spread was solidly upward sloping then, and most NBER BCDC key indicators were rising.
My seat of the pants recession predictor is usually off by expecting a recession too soon. The seat of the pants has been thinking a recession is coming for a bit now. It’s been told to wait it’s turn. Maybe its turn is coming now, and we have one in store, what with this, the inversion, beginnings of declines in manufacturing, lower hotel occupancy rates, and everything else.
The good news (oops…I mean fake news) just keeps on coming:
Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index fell by 32 points in June, to a level of 13 from a level of 45 in May. This drop is the largest one-month decline on record.
“The decline shows a sharp deterioration in sentiment this month that was broad-based across sectors,′ economist Ellen Zentner said in a note to clients on Thursday.
Every subindex of the Business Conditions Composite fell in June, expect for the credit condition category, which “is consistent with the recent easing in broad financial conditions,” Zentner said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/a-morgan-stanley-reading-on-the-economy-collapses-by-the-most-ever.html