All have a positive gradient in Q1.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDO (tan), and GDP+ (sky blue), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP, GDO based on 2nd release. Small % at right are Q1 SAAR growth rates. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, author’s calculations.
Note that GDO for 2023Q4 is revised down, while my estimate for GDO for 2024Q1was too low (see this post); the level of GDO is 0.2 ppts above what I guessed.
Final sales, a measure of aggregate demand, grew at 1.7% q/q SAAR.
So how does the orange abomination twist this blog post headline into bad news??
Are the Hispanic “rapists and murderers” invading the Philadelphia Fed?? Stay tuned to FOX news for more scares and panics. Some nondescript Fed economist is coming to take your shotgun!!!! Head to your secret KKK/Maga rendezvous sh*thole now!!!! (Ssssssshhhh!!! don’t tell anyone, it’s the dumpster behind the Hattiesburg Stuckey’s)
https://www.mississippifreepress.org/6769/forrest-county-votes-to-keep-confederate-monument-in-majority-black-hattiesburg
“A towering Confederate monument will likely continue to stand next to the Forrest County Courthouse in majority-Black Hattiesburg, Miss., after a county-wide referendum to remove it narrowly failed in a 51% to 49% vote. The United Daughters of the Confederacy gifted the monument to the city in 1910 as part of an effort to recast the pro-slavery Confederates states’ cause as noble.”
These Daughters of the Confederacy remind me of the jerk who was the principle of my damn high school. Even though 25% of my fellow students were black, this creep would end every school day with “the South will rise again”. Even worse he demanded the bank to play Dixie at prep rallies.
One of my best friends was an awesome jazz drummer who decided to write a bump version of Dixie with just music and no words. When they played this version, the whole student body started doing the bump in unison. Now the racist principle was none too please but when he tried to chew out the band, my friend replied – you asked us to play Dixie and we did so what’s your problem?
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – MAY 2024
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.
m/m inflation – 0. Time to lower interest rates.
Oil demand set to peak by 2029, major supply glut looms, IEA says
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/oil-demand-set-to-peak-by-2029-major-supply-glut-looms-iea-says/ar-BB1o52Ev?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=179300446d1d43ba9dd8c4383fab7fe1&ei=21
Global oil demand will peak by 2029 and begin to contract the next year, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, while oil supply capacity is due to vastly outpace demand by the end of the decade. The Paris-based energy watchdog sees supply capacity hitting nearly 114 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, or a full 8 million bpd above projected demand in its annual oil report. “This report’s projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade, suggesting that oil companies may want to make sure their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes taking place,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. Oil demand growth will plateau at 105.6 million bpd by 2029, the IEA said, before contracting slightly in 2030 as electric car use rises, efficiency improves and power generation moves away from oil. Non-OPEC+ producers led by the United States will make up three-quarters of the production capacity increase to 2030, the IEA added.
Two things about this. Those forecasts of $200 a barrel for oil we keep getting from Princeton Steve may never materialize. And that “drill, baby, drill” mantra from our MAGA morons seems rather stupid.