Most recent forecasts indicate no recession, Q2 nowcasts raised (GDPNow, NY Fed), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims) growth rates rising, and both NBER BCDC indicators as well as alternative indicators showing positive growth.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates (orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q1 third release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.
Note that the adjusted civilian employment series flattens out because it’s assumed that immigration matches what is incorporated in the BLS series starting in July 2023.
Compare against the NBER BCDC indicators.
Figure 2: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.
Mike Johnson is such a Trumpian clown:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/johnson-replacing-biden-on-ticket-would-be-wrong-unlawful/ar-BB1qn8Hg?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=3f3f276a3bd9468ab8be8b88c2188d23&ei=15
As calls from some Democratic lawmakers for President Joe Biden to pass the torch have grown this week, House Speaker Mike Johnson suggested Sunday that such a move might lead to legal trouble. Johnson, R-La., told “This Week” co-anchor Martha Raddatz that it would not be possible for some states to switch out Biden for another candidate ahead of the presidential election in November. “So it would be wrong, and I think unlawful, in accordance to some of these states’ rules for a handful of people to go in a back room and switch it out because they’re, they don’t like the candidate any longer. That’s not how this is supposed to work.
Really Mikie? This from the clown who supported 1/6/2021. Was that how it was supposed to work?
mike johnson simply shows he is ignorant of the law. any lawyer who makes these types of arguments should be disbarred. these statements are false, and if intentionally done so, you should no longer be permitted to operate as a lawyer. there is a reason why conventions exist. and it is not so a bunch of conservative republicans get a week to spend with strippers and escorts. it is to discuss and choose a candidate for the party.
The framers of our Constitution knew that our republic would endure only if our presidents have the character and honor to put duty ahead of self interest. President Biden deserves our gratitude for his decades of service to our nation and for his courageous decision today.
https://x.com/Liz_Cheney
There will be a host of principled Republicans like Liz Cheney who will support Kamala Harris over the Orange Jesus.
ABC had scheduled a Presidential debate for September. Trump must fear Harris as this coward just pulled out of that debate. He’ll only debate if his lying buddies on Faux News runs the show. Hey Donald – why are you so scared of a girl?
Well, that short Biden trade sure paid off.
But now we have a new financial anomaly: forward contracts that pay off a dollar in November are being sold for 72 cents. (I’d short Kamala to cover the very real risk that the Dem leadership is pretending to support her so that they can substitute another candidate later.)
Hey Ricky – you need to restart your porn career because your dumb bet on Trump is going to tank when Harris wins the election. Now only a clown like you would think the Dems have another candidate.
Look a little advice – get in the gym fast as the porn sector does not like out of shape old guys.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/
DJT closed at $35 a share. I’m sure little Ricky is a shareholder so it is going to be lots of laughs when trading opens tomorrow and little Ricky’s portfolio takes a big hit.
DJT opened by falling from $35 a share to $33 a share. Hey Ricky boy – should we open a Go Fund Me account for you?
“the very real risk that the Dem leadership is pretending to support her so that they can substitute another candidate later”
How stupid is little Ricky? After all, state delegates are already pledging their support for Harris with the folks who know these things saying she will clinch enough of them by this Wednesday. Act Blue got $27.5 million in new small donor donations in just 5 hours.
Oh my – if little Ricky is not enough prime meat to make his return to the porn industry, he might starve! Hey Ricky – I’ll pay your gym dues for the rest of the year as you need to shape up for your fellow movie stars.
This is what you think is important? Betting results? Not policy, no character, not public interest? Good to know.
Little Ricky is nothing more than a pathetic troll. After all he failed at being a lawyer on the TV and the porn industry fired him 30 years ago. So there is nothing left to do in little Ricky’s sad little life.
he who supports the convicted felon who sexually assaults women, commits fraud, oversaw a 30% decline in stock markets and was responsible for the highest unemployment rate since WWII? republican stryker, you do not hold what one calls the moral high ground here. supporting a man of trumps moral qualities will get you excommunicated in most jesus loving churches. and if not, perhaps that is not really a christian church you are attending. just saying…
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/07/21/gps-0721-the-evolution-of-jd-vance.cnn
On GPS: The evolution of JD Vance from Trump critic to loyalist
I’m no fan of David Frum but this interview with Fareed Zakaria nails a lot of the problems with JD Vance. Trump and Vance have turned their back on the Party of Reagan.
Politico is trying ever so hard to fill space with text related to Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race – so we get fifteen “experts”, many of who are partisan hacks or mere pundits. Here’s something slightly better, despite the clear Zionist taint:
“Joshua Zeitz is a historian and POLITICO Magazine contributing writer.”
“[Biden’s] domestic policy achievements in one term exceed those of all of his predecessors since Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson. And unlike Johnson, Biden’s foreign policy was a critical success: he held the NATO alliance together in the face of Russian aggression like no president since Harry Truman; he skillfully navigated rising Chinese and Iranian incitement — all the more complicated, since that aggression is so often asymmetrical. And he came to the defense of Israel, in Israel’s most trying moment, despite the constant scheming and ineptitude of the Israeli government.”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/21/biden-dropout-expert-predictions-00170164
Keeping score:
Gavin Newsom has endored Harris.
Murkowski and Romney have joined Cheney in praising Biden.
Obama, Pelosi, Schumer and Jeffries are all backing an “open” primary, despite the potential risks, presumably because the actual risks appear small and Republican moaning about democracy can be rebutted.
Campaign contributions to the Democrats total over $30 million so far today. Not a record, but pretty big, and for less than a full day, in a Sunday. Donors are back.
I heard Act Blue received $65 million in small donor donations.
Manchin made a little noise about running for the Dem nomination but decided it would be better not to do so.
This is not 1968. I cried when LBJ choose not to run for reelection but as an anti-war progressive, I loved HHH. But we got lying “Peace with Honor” corrupt Nixon as President because the Democrats turned on themselves.
OK Biden is not running again choosing his VP to succeed him. And Trump is Nixon to the 10th power. Now traitors like Rick Stryker are betting on Trump to win because they are stupid enough to think Democrats will once again be fractured. Sorry little Ricky boy but it seems the Democrats are rallying being Kamala Harris. Act Blue alone has raised almost $47 million in just a few hours from small donors.
China has cut its 7-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points. The cut follows the conclusion of the third plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and is it’s only substantive result. No other policy measures have been announced. Here is a translation of Xi’s statement explaining what was done at the session, a bland recitation of vapid “goals”, with an as-expected focus on consolidating Party control:
https://www.eastisread.com/p/full-text-xi-jinpings-explanation
The Shanghai stock index ended the day down 0.6%, and is flat so far this year.
China’s central bank has also reduced collateral requirements for loans. Newreports indicate that o e goal of lower collateral requirements is to steepen the curve, which is currently inverted. I’m confused by this. The goal of lower rates is to reduce the cost of borrowing; a steeper curve increases the cost of borrowing.
A steep curve is associated with recession risk in the U.S. and in the popular mind, but not necessarily in China. An inverted curve doesn’t cause recession, but merely reflects expectations of lower inflation and lower short-term rates in the future. Long-term interest rates are an automatic stabizer.
China’s central bankers are quite knowledgeable, so certainly aren’t deceived as to the growth impact of steepening the curve. Either they have some goal in mind that I haven’t figured out, or they aren’t in charge.
Anyone know what’s going on?
Someone other than Bruce Hall needs to teach the MAGA Morons how to use FRED:
Kimberly Guilfoyle claims that ‘Trump handed Biden a booming economy’
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/17/politics/fact-check-night-3-republican-national-convention/index.html
Yea – this is the racist piece of trash that is doing Don Jr. Now Obama left Trump with a booming economy but even a retarded dog knows Trump left office with the economy in shambles.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/expert-zeroes-in-on-kellyanne-conway-as-anti-harris-propaganda-begins/ar-BB1qqbiv?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=dd8eada9dec449609aa9221447f4190b&ei=10
Here we go! Kelly Anne Conway calling Kamala Harris stupid and lazy. Hey Kelly Anne – your hubby divorced you so he can run his smear campaign against your boss. Or maybe George woke up and realize how utterly Kelly Anne is!
We knew this was coming. Dog-whistle racism and sexism, along with plastic straws, are what Republicans rely on to win votes. They think the voting public is as despicable as they are. We’ll find out whether they’re right in November.
for those who want to give a pass to trump, kind of like he is part of the “good guys on both sides” argument that should be given a break, because he is not THAT bad:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/18/opinion/trump-presidency-record.html
great summary of the 4 year disaster during his last term in office. trump oversaw the an over 30% collapse of the stock market and the highest unemployment since WWII. twice impeached-bipartisan. impaired response to the coronavirus pandemic. damaged ukrainian institutions with bribery requests. encouraged a hamas attack by supporting a one state solution with jerusalem capital in israel. walked away from any control of iranian nukes. gave putin whatever he wanted. wanted to put blacks in jail for desiring to be treated equally by police and society. defended white nationalists after they riot and kill others. passed classified information to the russians, deliberately. tries to prosecute his political enemies, such as clinton and comey. separates migrant families intentionally to intimidate them, leaving young children to fend for themselves. tries to weaken nato to appease putin. ignores hurricane victims because they are “those people”. encourages racism and hatred against anybody different. encourages people to take bleach and horse pills to fight covid. pardons multiple officials found guilty by his own department of justice. weaponizes the department of justice. tried to illegally overrun elections in multiple states. encouraged an armed insurrection against the country in the nations capital.
and now, even republicans in his own party want to kill him. this man, a convicted felon, should not even be permitted to run for office. he is the antichrist, and if you are a god fearing person, you will commit a mortal sin by continuing to defend and support such a despicable individual.
Here’s what Trump’s former White House national security adviser Sebastian Gorky had to say about the Harris nomination:
“This is a disaster whose only qualification is having a vagina and the right skin color … she’s a DEI hire, she’s a woman, she’s colored, so therefore she’s gotta be good.”
This a what we can expect from the Trump campaign in the coming weeks. It’s not going to be pretty.
By the way, Gorky was also at one time an adviser to Viktor Orban.
“Gorky was also at one time an adviser to Viktor Orban.”
Which means Steve Koptis loves this clown.
‘Morally reprehensible!’ Sebastian Gorka sparks furious backlash after ‘disgusting’ Kamala Harris remark
https://www.djournal.com/news/national/morally-reprehensible-sebastian-gorka-sparks-furious-backlash-after-disgusting-kamala-harris-remark/video_8ee0c874-586f-5dac-8eff-7215b340cc41.html
The moderator was right to correct this racist POS. But Gorka is one arrogant moron.
Sebastian Gorka, Trump’s combative new national security aide, is widely disdained within his own field
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sebastian-gorka-trumps-combative-national-212306104.html
‘In conversations with Business Insider, several national-security experts questioned Gorka’s credibility in their field, saying he is often dismissed as an outspoken conservative pundit who lacks the chops to serve in the highest levels of the White House advising on national-security policy.’
Read the whole thing. Gorka is Trump’s kind of guy alright.
Sorry for the Gorky/Gorka thing above. It wasn’t intentional.
The National Championship football team from the University of Michigan is visiting the White House. Biden could not host this celebration so Harris is.
In the meantime Trump is in Michigan courting North Korea’s Kimmy with an offer to take him to a game between this team and the New York Yankees. College football team v. Professional baseball team? HELLO? Yea – Trump lost his mind a long time ago.
michigan, where a rose never grows…
“A mind is a terrible thing to lose” – but not if you never had one in the first place.
$90 million raised by Act Blue in the last 24 hours!
Haven’t donated yet. But i will soon. Just like i did in 2020, as the blue wave grows before crashing down on maga. Again.
so rick striker comes on here to troll. well dick, you are the one pushing for the senile old man with felony convictions and a fading approval rating. and you are now saddled with the biggest mistake yet in the election, the nut sack jd vance, who will twist in the wind to say whatever he needs at the moment to win. he is even worse than trump. in fact, only a short time ago jd vance claimed that trump was the antichrist who would destroy the world. love to see how those to get along in the fox hole that is the campaign for the next few months. I’ll take my chances, dick. compared to the clusterf… that is the republican ticket, I will take Harris EVERY SINGLE DAY. what a great month to short the trump ticked with a vengeance.
Little Ricky boy actually wrote this:
“the very real risk that the Dem leadership is pretending to support her so that they can substitute another candidate later”
I know little Ricky boy ain’t very bright but even a retarded dog would have figured out by now that the Dems are lining up behind Harris. Which is why the Trumpian racists have pulled out their worst behavior. MAGA I guess.
actually, rick is quite worried. in hind sight, vance was a horrible selection for vp. Harris is going to be a very formidable candidate. having two mysoginists on the ballot is going to hurt the republican ticket tremendously with women, most of who will see vance as another tech bro who talks out of both sides of his mouth. Biden stepping down is simply devastating to the trump campaign in the long run. trump will be older than Biden was when running for office. he is simply too old and decrepit to run for office again. and now you have to vote for a person with a deformed ear, if you vote for trump. life is not good in magaland right now. as if supporting a convicted felon were bad enough…
Hope rick is still shorting harris, cause he is getting crushed right now. Sucks to stare at that trump/vance ticket, knowing you are stuck with a losing hand going forward. And there is NOTHING you can do to change that gloomy outlook.