Me, interviewed with Buzz Kemper, on BadgerTalks, recorded on 8/6 (Episode 44).
Some of the numbers I was thinking about:
NBER indicators normalized to 2024M03:
Figure 1 [corrected 8/13]: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 advance release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (8/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.
And alternative indicators normalized to the same date:
Figure 2: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept (orange), manufacturing production (red), retail sales (black), vehicle miles traveled (light blue), and Coincident Index (light pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. GDI used in calculating GDO for 2024Q2 estimated by predicting 2024Q2 net operating surplus using GDP, lagged surplus, lagged differenced surplus, 2021Q1-2024Q1.Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 advance release, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
And for the Wisconsin economy:
Figure 3: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries deflated by national chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logs 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes the 6 months after the WMC Winter survey. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and author’s calculations.
Off topic but this is funny given how little Ricky Stryker tried to tell us what a great golfer Trump was:
‘He cheats at golf’: George Conway hits Trump with new Bedminster billboards
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-cheats-at-golf/
Look – I could care less about golf. But come on – everyone knows Trump cheats at everything especially golf. But not little Ricky Stryker.
On a related topic, Baldwin vs Hovde polls:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/wisconsin/hovde-vs-baldwin
Averaged across recent polls, Baldwin up 6 ppt. Fox News reports Baldwin up 11 ppts.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/jd-vance-s-military-service-record-what-we-can-verify/ar-AA1oGfNW?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ddf1cbe9b8d44d8686a242423e6412de&ei=10
JD Vance’s military service record: What we can VERIFY
This is great. I wonder if Vance likes to be Swift Boated! Oh wait – he was corporal James D. Hamel back in the day. His service while in Iraq for all of 4 months? A reporter who managed to write two whole articles!
One thing about VERIFY. They are honest and fair unlike Vance and his bought and paid for Swift Boat buddies.
Such obvious Swift-Boating GOP B.S. – Walz was an enlisted guy – if needed – he could be recalled with a Stop/Loss order. Much more important that he was serving his country in Congress – where he worked on veteran’s issues.
My question for JD Vance – having served in the military – he knows that a convicted felon can not serve in the military – so why is he voting for convicted felon Donald Trump to be Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. military? For that matter – can the GOP explain why they nominated a convicted felon to be Commander-in-Chief?
(Gee whiz – I wish the corporate media would research an issue and ask questions – rather than just repeating GOP B.S. – BTW – anyone in corporate media willing to report on Trump spewing incoherent nonsense/lies and slurring his words in Musk interview – or do we all just pretend that Trump is somehow mentally fit to be President? Also in the interview – Trump said he will “need an Elon Musk” to close the Department of Education, and move education back to the states. So states like Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi can switch to home schooling with the King James version of the Bible and pay for garbage lesson plans from a right-wing dingbat profit center.)
I think you switched the labels for Civilian Employment and Industrial Production on the first graph.
IS: Thanks! Graph corrected now.